Serbian elections (new date: June 21 2020) - To boycott or not to boycott?

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Serbia in 2020 will have elections at every level - parliamentary, regional (for Vojvodina, the only autonomous region) and local (for most municipalities). These are the first elections since 1997 that a significant part of the opposition will boycott. The pro-government parties (SNS, SPS etc.) will of course all run.

PARTIES WITH MPs AND OTHER NOTABLE PARTIES

Pro-boycott (approx. 38 MPs)

Alliance for Serbia is pro-boycott. It includes:
- Democratic Party (DS) (led by Zoran Lutovac, centre-left) PES member
- Dveri (led by Boško Obradović, right-wing)
- People's Party (led by Vuk Jeremić ex DS, centre-right)
- Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) (led by Dragan Đilas ex DS, centre-left)
- Together for Serbia (led by Nebojša Zelenović ex DS, centre-left, in process of reunification with DS)
- Fatherland (led by Slaviša Ristić ex DSS, right-wing)
Alliance for Serbia has 2 more members - a minor party without MPs and a minor trade union.

Pro-boycott parties outside of Alliance for Serbia
- Enough is Enough (DJB) (led by Saša Radulović, populist) ECR member
- Social Democratic Party (led by former president Boris Tadić ex-DS, centre-left, in process of reunification with DS)
- Free Citizens Movement (PSG) (led by actor Sergej Trifunović, centre-left) - without MPs

Anti-boycott - Approx. 39 MPs but with less popular support than pro-boycott parties according to recent polls.
All parties in the list below are formally opposition parties, but most of them are "constructive opposition" (read: pro-government in all but name).

- Serbian Radical Party (SRS) (led by convicted war criminal Vojislav Šešelj, far-right) - the current ruling party Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) split from them in 2008
- Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) (led by Miloš Jovanović, centre-right to right-wing) - running as "Metla 2020" (Metla means broom) together with a few local parties.
- New Party (Nova) (led by Zoran Živković ex-DS, centrist) - still undecided but leans anti-boycott
- Liberal Democratic Party (led by Čedomir Jovanović ex-DS, centrist) - was an ALDE member but it was expelled because of unpaid debts
- League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV) (led by Nenad Čanak, centre-left) - EFA member
- Party of Modern Serbia (SMS) (led by a tripartite presidency, centrist) - a split from DJB.
The two parties mentioned previously (LSV, SMS) are running together with "Serbia 21" (consisting of former DS and SDS MPs) and minor parties as "United Democratic Serbia".

- New Serbia (NS) (led by Velimir Ilić, centre-right to right-wing) - running with 2 minor parties as "Narodni blok" (People's Bloc)
- Serbian Patriotic Alliance (led by waterpolo player Aleksandar Šapić ex-DS, right-wing)
- "1 out of 5 million movement" (student protest movement which was vocally pro-boycott until recently, some members resigned and local branches rebelled because of the decision against boycott) - without MPs
- Healthy Serbia (led by Mayor of Čajetina Milan Stamatović, right-wing) - former member of Alliance for Serbia. Without MPs
- Free Citizens Movement (PSG) (led by actor Sergej Trifunović, centre-left) - without MPs. They announced on May 5th that they will contest the 2020 elections, ending their boycott.


This is by no means a complete list and it might contain inaccuracies. On the other hand I might have given too much space to some of the minor parties...

[bigic]

If half of the opposition are boycotting sounds like incumbent landslide incoming.
What is the current process of Serbia joining EU?

SNS will win in a landslide even if all the opposition parties are running, as it has done in 2014, 2016 and 2017. IMO there are 3 reasons:
- media control
- electoral fraud
- opposition incompetence.

And it's maybe half of opposition MPs who belong to pro-boycott parties but it's more like approx. 80% of popular support among opposition parties. In 2016 there was a SRS surge due to release of Seselj from Hague tribunal for war crimes but it was short lived and they are back on their standard ~3% of support - it's a major driver of the decline of the anti-boycott parties.

 As for Serbian EU integration process, it's moving at a snail's pace.

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Doesn't leave much except Beli maybe.

Beli is way past his peak. After excellent result in the presidential election he got less than 3% in Belgrade city elections. And AFAIK he is running too, but it will be a struggle to get 10 thousand signatures (he struggled even at peak of his popularity in 2017 due to lack of organisation but he somehow managed), expect if he gets help from "outside"...

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Nikola Selaković, the general secretary of the Serbian president, stated that both the parliamentary and the local elections will be held on Sunday 26th of April, in accordance with the legal deadlines. The latest legal date is 3rd of May, a week after that.

One of the opposition demands was separation of local elections from the parliamentary election to reduce the influence of national campaign on the local elections. Which is clearly not met.

https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/selakovic-potvrdio-izbori-u-srbiji-26-aprila/zkw0z5s

He also criticised the boycotting opposition parties.

As for the recently introduced bill that will reduce the threshold from 5% to 3%, he stated that the measure aims to "return democracy from the streets to the parliament". In other words - helping the anti-boycott parties.

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"1 out of 5 million movement", which won't boycott the national election, claims that some of the local branches of boycotting opposition parties are preparing to contest the local elections in defiance of the decision to also boycott the local elections.

The response from 2 opposition mayors, from parties which are boycotting the national election:

Marko Bastać, President of Municipality of Stari Grad (Belgrade) from Party for Freedom and Justice (elected as Democratic Party): He "will boycott".

Nebojša Zelenović, Mayor of Šabac from Together for Serbia: He hasn't decided yet. "A good decision will be made."

There are a few more municipalities not ruled by Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), including:
- Novi Beograd, whose president Aleksandar Šapić (Serbian Patriotic Alliance, elected as independent) is against boycott

- Čajetina, whose president Milan Stamatović (Healthy Serbia, elected as a candidate from Serbian People's Party (SNP) that he left over SNP joining the ruling coalition) probably won't boycott

- Paraćin, whose president Saša Paunović is from the Democratic Party, which is pro-boycott.

http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a565964/Deo-opozicije-u-kampanji-bojkota-da-li-ce-i-na-lokalu-slati-iste-poruke.html

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A comparison graph: coverage of the presidential candidates in the 2012 and 2017 presidential elections on the main TV channels in Serbia. The main candidates in 2012 were Boris Tadić (DS, incumbent) and Tomislav Nikolić (SNS) and Tomislav Nikolić won. In 2017 the SNS candidate was Aleksandar Vučić, who won the election - but was it fair when he had disproportionately high media coverage (as a result of authoritarian SNS rule)?

https://mobile.twitter.com/GavrilovicZoran/status/1226386076174032896

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Twitter suspended the account of Vojislav Šešelj (@predsednikSRS), the leader of far-right Serbian Radical Party (SRS), because of threats and hate speech coming from the account.

Vuk Jeremić, leader of centre-right opposition People's Party (part of pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia), celebrates this move. Sanda Rašković-Ivić, one of the People's Party MPs, was one of the recent targets of Šešelj's threats.

https://twitter.com/jeremic_vuk/status/1226917530243125249

Pro-government tabloid website Republika criticises Vuk Jeremić and Alliance for Serbia, accusing them of hypocrisy on freedom of speech. https://www.republika.rs/vesti/srbija/186491/puna-usta-slobode-govora-opoziciono-maslo-ugasen-seseljev-tviter-nalog

[bigic]

Together for Serbia, the party of mayor of Šabac, Nebojša Zelenović, freezes its participation in Alliance for Serbia for two weeks until it decides on participation in the Šabac local election.

http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a568128/SZS-Ne-menjamo-stav-o-izborima-ZZS-ne-ucestvuje-u-radu-SzS-do-odluke-o-Sapcu.html

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Leviathan Movement, an "animal rights" vigilante group, announces that it seeks to contest the parliamentary election and local elections in 15 municipalities.
http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a568356/Bihali-Levijatan-izlazi-na-izbore-u-petnaestak-opstina.html

The group has been criticised for its abusive conduct and for its ties to the far-right: https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/tko-stoji-iza-pokreta-levijatan-prica-je-puno-mracnija-nego-sto-se-cini-na-prvu/2045193.aspx

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New parties aren't necessarily anti-government. Pro-government parties which didn't exist in 2016 and seek participation in the elections include:

- Movement for the Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia (POKS) - centre-right monarchist party, a splinter of Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO). Led by Žika Gojković MP.
SPO is also a centre-right monarchist party and was once a major party until 2000, when the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition took most of the SPO's anti-Milošević base. And  SPO also supports the current ruling coalition around SNS.

- Serbian Right (Srpska Desnica) - a far-right party led by Miloš "Miša" Vacić. He first became active in another far-right organisation, "Serbian National Movement 1389", which was known for its violent actions against the LGBT community. In 2017 he was briefly employed in the government's "Office for Kosovo and Metohija" as an assistant. He founded Serbian Right in January 2018.

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The new slogan of the electoral coalition around Serbian Progressive party, the biggest party in the ruling coalition: "For our children - Aleksandar Vučić". It will be used in the election campaign and as the name of the electoral list.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sns_srbija/status/1229784287915974656


Right-wing party "Serbian Movement Dveri" (part of pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia) has launched a petition against the immigration policy of the government.

https://balkaninsight.com/2020/02/18/right-wing-serbian-party-launches-anti-immigration-campaign/

[bigic]

these are not elections. in many cities we have hitler-style one party ticket. normal people will boycott, there is no other way.

I will also boycott and I agree that the playing field would be very unfair, but I don't think that we would see municipalities where only one list will contest. They would surely introduce some "competition" so you could "choose" between SNS, SPS, SRS, Serbian Right etc., like in Medveđa last year.

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People's Party (part of pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia) dissolves its Šabac local wing because the local wing wanted to be excluded from the boycott.
https://www.danas.rs/politika/narodna-stranka-raspustila-gradski-odbor-sabac-zbog-nepostovanja-odluke-o-bojkotu/

This probably means that the opposition Mayor of Šabac, Nebojša Zelenović (Together for Serbia, ex DS) won't boycott.

Another opposition mayor, Saša Paunović of Paraćin from Democratic Party (DS) says that he still hasn't decided.

https://www.danas.rs/politika/paunovic-konacna-odluka-o-izlasku-na-lokalne-izbore-u-paracinu-nije-doneta/

A map of municipalities coloured by presence of Serbian Progressive Party in local government (red: in government, light blue: no data (Kosovo) or in opposition)
Source: NGO CRTA, http://kojenavlasti.rs/mapa.php



Municipalities where Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is in opposition:

- Šabac and Paraćin, already mentioned
- Novi Beograd (Belgrade), led by Aleksandar Šapić of Serbian Patriotic Alliance (anti-boycott), former member of DS
- Stari Grad (Belgrade), led by Marko Bastać of Party for Freedom and Justice (Alliance for Serbia, pro-boycott), former member of DS
- Svilajnac, led by Predrag Milanović (local party), former member of DS
- Čajetina, led by Milan Stamatović of Healthy Serbia (anti-boycott), former member of Serbian People's Party (SNP) and Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)
- Sjenica, ethnic Bosniak majority municipality, led by Hazbo Mujović of Party of Democratic Action (SDA)
- Ćićevac, led by Zlatan Krkić (local party), former member of DS
- Ražanj, led by Dobrica Stojković of New Serbia (anti-boycott)
- Surdulica, a stronghold of Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) where the relations with SNS, its partner in national government, are poor. Led by Aleksandra Popović.
- Bosilegrad, ethnic Bulgarian majority municipality, led by Vladimir Zahariev (local party) who has recently praised Aleksandar Vučić, but Vučić's party remains in opposition in Bosilegrad. Zahariev is a former member of Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS).
- Bujanovac, ethnically mixed municipality, composed mostly of Serbs and Albanians with a significant Roma minority. Led by Shaip Kamberi of Party for Democratic Action (PDD-PVD), an ethnic Albanian party, governing together with ethnic Serb local party led by Stojanča Arsić (anti-boycott).

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Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), the two main ruling parties, won't run together.

http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a571625/Vucevic-SNS-i-SPS-idu-odvojeno-na-parlamentarne-izbore.html

[bigic]

What about these monarchists party I heard about?

They are pro-government satellite parties. AFAIK, SPO will run on the SNS list and POKS will run independently.

[bigic]

Saša Paunović, mayor of Paraćin, leaves pro-boycott Democratic Party and will participate in the Paraćin local election with his independent list.
https://mobile.twitter.com/demokrate/status/1234860802999562241

[bigic]

The elections will be held on 26th of April. These elections will be held:

- parliamentary (for Parliament of Serbia).
There is a single nationwide constituency, electing all 250 MPs.
The electoral threshold is 3% (5% until recently) and there is no threshold for ethnic minority party lists (ethnic minority parties need just 0,4% to elect an MP).
This is the second parliamentary election a significant part of opposition will boycott (the first was in 1997).

- regional (for Parliament of Autonomous Province of Vojvodina)
There is a single regionwide constituency, electing all 120 MPs.
The electoral threshold is 3% (5% until recently) and there is no threshold for ethnic minority party lists (ethnic minority parties need only 0,8333...% to elect an MP).
This is the first regional election a significant part of opposition will boycott.

- local (for most local parliaments in Serbia)
They will be held in most cities and municipalities in Serbia, except those that had an off-cycle (2017-19) local election.
Cities and municipalities where local elections won't be held this year: cities of Zaječar, Bor and Beograd (local elections will be held in individual municipalities of Beograd), municipalities Kosjerić, Lučani, Aranđelovac, Negotin, Majdanpek, Mionica, Medveđa, Preševo, Kula, Doljevac, Kladovo and Smederevska Palanka.

All municipalities in Serbia consist of a single constituency in which all of the municipality's local councillors are elected.
The electoral threshold is 3% (5% until recently) and there is no threshold for ethnic minority party lists. But the parliaments of some municipalities are so small that in some cases even 5% isn't enough to elect a councillor.
This is the first local election cycle a significant part of opposition will boycott, but the opposition parties were boycotting some of the off-cycle (2017-19) local elections.

[bigic]

The coalition list led by Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), "Aleksandar Vučić - For our children", is the first submitted electoral list for the parliamentary election, which means that they will be number 1 on the ballots. They were also the first list in the parliamentary elections of 2014 and 2016.

A list with the same name was also submitted for the Vojvodina regional election and they will be first on the Vojvodina regional election ballot too.

http://rs.n1info.com/Izbori-2020/a575178/SNS-predala-izbornu-listu-Aleksandar-Vucic-za-nasu-decu.html

[bigic]

The list of Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and its allies (Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, Movement of Socialists, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Serbian Renewal Movement, Serbian People's Party, People's Peasant Party etc.) is available here: https://docs.google.com/gview?url=https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/extfile/sr/1994/Izborna%20lista%20ALEKSANDAR%20VUCIC-ZA%20NASU%20DECU.%20ispr.%20c.doc

Realistically, maybe even up to 200 seats (out of 250) are winnable for the list - due to the opposition boycott. All the people you would expect on a SNS list are present, notable people from outside of politics - less than expected if the precedent is the SNS list for 2018 Belgrade city election.
In the first 20 places there are about 10 young people from the party academy. Notable persons on the list include violinist Jovan Kolundžija (3.), Milena Popović (55.) (former wife of Oliver Ivanović, assassinated Kosovo Serb politician who was an opponent of SNS-backed Serb List) and Lav Pajkić (148.) (host of pro-regime "comedy" TV show on TV Pink, son of writer Isidora Bjelica).

As for the electoral lists, Milutin Jeličić, the former mayor of Brus and former member of Velimir Ilić's New Serbia and of SNS, is now running for Parliament of Serbia for Vojislav Šešelj's Serbian Radical Party (SRS). He is on trial for sexual abuse and abuse of office. Probably SNS wanted him to be an MP to receive immunity, but fearing backlash, chose to run him for an allied party (SRS). And now a part of the SRS is unhappy because they have him on the list, so they left the party?!
https://www.021.rs/story/Izbori-2020/235867/Seselj-odlucio-da-Jutka-bude-nosilac-liste-u-Brusu-deo-radikala-nezadovoljan-time.html

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Ljubiša Preletačević

Beli too? I didn't expect this...

[bigic]

President of pro-boycott Free Citizens Movement, Sergej Trifunović, filed a complaint about the SNS list arguing that the list should be rejected - he argued that the legality of the SNS party is in doubt because SNS didn't conform to the rules regarding the party's local organizations and the central committee. The Electoral Commission of Serbia rejected the complaints as "unfounded".
The Electoral Commission also approved the pro-regime coalition list of Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and United Serbia (JS), which should be number 2 on the ballots for the parliamentary election.

Source: see the whole thread from NGO CRTA, starting from this tweet
https://mobile.twitter.com/CRTArs/status/1236260460166512643

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As for SPS, 2 of its members in Žabalj, a small town in Vojvodina, were beaten after submitting the list for the local election. The local SPS accused that the mayor of Žabalj, who is from SNS, to be behind the attack. Ivica Dačić, the president of SPS, rejected the accusations, saying that he doesn't see why would SNS, their partners in national government, be behind this. The pro-boycott opposition Alliance for Serbia condemned the attack of SNS on 2 SPS members, and Dveri, one of the Alliance parties, called on SPS to join the election boycott.

http://rs.n1info.com/Izbori-2020/a575614/Maskirane-osobe-upale-u-prostorije-SPS-u-Zablju-pretukle-dve-osobe.html
http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a575682/SZS-osudio-napad-na-funkcionere-SPS-Dveri-zovu-socijaliste-u-bojkot.html
http://rs.n1info.com/Izbori-2020/a575698/Dacic-Ne-verujem-da-iza-napada-u-Zablju-stoji-SNS.html

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The lists of far-right Serbian Radical Party (SRS) of Vojislav Šešelj and of Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM/VMSZ), a pro-government ethnic Hungarian party with ties to Fidesz led by Istvan Pasztor, were approved.
Notably, Milutin Jeličić Jutka, the former mayor of Brus accused of sexual abuse, is not on the SRS list, but he will lead an independent list in the Brus local election called "For modern Brus", supported by SRS. His absence was unexpected, as Vojislav Šešelj has earlier announced that Jutka will be on his party's list for the parliamentary election.

Interestingly, the Serbian Progressive Party's list was brought down in opposition-controlled Šabac after a citizen's complaint. The reason is that the permit from Aleksandar Vučić to use his name in the name of the list was not submitted.
http://podrinske.com/ponisteno-resenje-o-proglasenju-izborne-liste-aleksandar-vucic-za-nasu-decu/amp/?fbclid=IwAR1tM3JkDk8mdOOyP5Ykmi1olAamqyx9uXsgTNovX2iT7LkqMXCcjhYqxZo&__twitter_impression=true

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So far, 7 lists were approved:
1. "Aleksandar Vučić - For our children" - pro-regime coalition led by Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)
2. "Ivica Dačić - Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), United Serbia (JS) - Dragan Marković Palma" - another pro-regime coalition
3. "Dr Vojislav Šešelj - Serbian Radical Party" (SRS) - Šešelj's far-right party.
4. "Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians - Pásztor István" - pro-regime ethnic Hungarian party with close ties to Fidesz, the Hungarian ruling party
5. "Aleksandar Šapić - Victory for Serbia" - coalition list dominated by Šapić's "Serbian Patriotic Alliance" (SPAS, the Serbian acronym, means "salvation"). Šapić is the mayor of Novi Beograd and former professional water polo player. Šapić is a former member of Democratic Party (pro-boycott centre-left) but a large part of the list is composed of former Dveri (pro-boycott right) and SRS members. The list also includes Ratko Dmitrović, a journalist with very prominent nationalist views.
6. "For Kingdom of Serbia (Movement for Renewal of Kingdom of Serbia, Monarchist Front - Žika Gojković" (POKS-MF) - a pro-regime coalition campaigning on restoration of Serbian monarchy. POKS is a SPO splinter led by Žika Gojković and MF is a party led by prince claimant Vladimir Karađorđević of the Karađorđević dynasty.
7. "United Democratic Serbia" - coalition claiming to represent "true pro-European politics". It includes Serbia 21 (association founded by former members of pro-boycott Democratic Party (DS) and its splinter Social Democratic Party (SDS), continuing the great tradition of DS splintering), League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV) (Vojvodina regionalist party led by Nenad Čanak), Civic Democratic Forum (GDF) (splinter of pro-boycott Free Citizens Movement), Party of Modern Serbia (SMS) (splinter of pro-boycott Enough is Enough movement) and a few minor ethnic minority parties. The first on the list is Marko Đurišić, the former chair of SDS in the Serbian parliament. Its rivals (multiple personalities from the pro-boycott opposition and a prominent member of anti-boycott Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)) accuse the coalition of being a tool of Beba Popović (a shadowy personality close to the regime) and of the current regime.

Most political parties and other organisations have recently suspended or limited their campaigning and other activities due to the coronavirus epidemic. There have been calls from some of the opposition parties to delay the elections to limit the spread of coronavirus.

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Serbia yesterday proclaimed a state of emergency over coronavirus, during which the elections can be delayed. But no such decision delaying the elections has been made yet...

2 new lists were approved:
8. "Serbian Party Oath Keepers" (Zavetnici), a minor right-wing nationalist party led by Milica Đurđević Stamenkovski. They won 0,73% in the 2016 parliamentary election.
9. Coalition SPP-DPM "Only Forward" consisting of "Party of Justice and Reconciliation" (SPP), a pro-government ethnic Bosniak party led by dissident Islamic cleric and self-described "academic" Muamer Zukorlić, and minor ethnic Macedonian "Democratic Party of Macedonians" (DPM).