Serbian elections (new date: June 21 2020) - To boycott or not to boycott?

[bigic]

Serbia in 2020 will have elections at every level - parliamentary, regional (for Vojvodina, the only autonomous region) and local (for most municipalities). These are the first elections since 1997 that a significant part of the opposition will boycott. The pro-government parties (SNS, SPS etc.) will of course all run.

PARTIES WITH MPs AND OTHER NOTABLE PARTIES

Pro-boycott (approx. 38 MPs)

Alliance for Serbia is pro-boycott. It includes:
- Democratic Party (DS) (led by Zoran Lutovac, centre-left) PES member
- Dveri (led by Boško Obradović, right-wing)
- People's Party (led by Vuk Jeremić ex DS, centre-right)
- Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) (led by Dragan Đilas ex DS, centre-left)
- Together for Serbia (led by Nebojša Zelenović ex DS, centre-left, in process of reunification with DS)
- Fatherland (led by Slaviša Ristić ex DSS, right-wing)
Alliance for Serbia has 2 more members - a minor party without MPs and a minor trade union.

Pro-boycott parties outside of Alliance for Serbia
- Enough is Enough (DJB) (led by Saša Radulović, populist) ECR member
- Social Democratic Party (led by former president Boris Tadić ex-DS, centre-left, in process of reunification with DS)
- Free Citizens Movement (PSG) (led by actor Sergej Trifunović, centre-left) - without MPs

Anti-boycott - Approx. 39 MPs but with less popular support than pro-boycott parties according to recent polls.
All parties in the list below are formally opposition parties, but most of them are "constructive opposition" (read: pro-government in all but name).

- Serbian Radical Party (SRS) (led by convicted war criminal Vojislav Šešelj, far-right) - the current ruling party Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) split from them in 2008
- Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) (led by Miloš Jovanović, centre-right to right-wing) - running as "Metla 2020" (Metla means broom) together with a few local parties.
- New Party (Nova) (led by Zoran Živković ex-DS, centrist) - still undecided but leans anti-boycott
- Liberal Democratic Party (led by Čedomir Jovanović ex-DS, centrist) - was an ALDE member but it was expelled because of unpaid debts
- League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV) (led by Nenad Čanak, centre-left) - EFA member
- Party of Modern Serbia (SMS) (led by a tripartite presidency, centrist) - a split from DJB.
The two parties mentioned previously (LSV, SMS) are running together with "Serbia 21" (consisting of former DS and SDS MPs) and minor parties as "United Democratic Serbia".

- New Serbia (NS) (led by Velimir Ilić, centre-right to right-wing) - running with 2 minor parties as "Narodni blok" (People's Bloc)
- Serbian Patriotic Alliance (led by waterpolo player Aleksandar Šapić ex-DS, right-wing)
- "1 out of 5 million movement" (student protest movement which was vocally pro-boycott until recently, some members resigned and local branches rebelled because of the decision against boycott) - without MPs
- Healthy Serbia (led by Mayor of Čajetina Milan Stamatović, right-wing) - former member of Alliance for Serbia. Without MPs
- Free Citizens Movement (PSG) (led by actor Sergej Trifunović, centre-left) - without MPs. They announced on May 5th that they will contest the 2020 elections, ending their boycott.


This is by no means a complete list and it might contain inaccuracies. On the other hand I might have given too much space to some of the minor parties...

[xelas81]

If half of the opposition are boycotting sounds like incumbent landslide incoming.
What is the current process of Serbia joining EU?

[bigic]

If half of the opposition are boycotting sounds like incumbent landslide incoming.
What is the current process of Serbia joining EU?

SNS will win in a landslide even if all the opposition parties are running, as it has done in 2014, 2016 and 2017. IMO there are 3 reasons:
- media control
- electoral fraud
- opposition incompetence.

And it's maybe half of opposition MPs who belong to pro-boycott parties but it's more like approx. 80% of popular support among opposition parties. In 2016 there was a SRS surge due to release of Seselj from Hague tribunal for war crimes but it was short lived and they are back on their standard ~3% of support - it's a major driver of the decline of the anti-boycott parties.

 As for Serbian EU integration process, it's moving at a snail's pace.

[Omega21]

If half of the opposition are boycotting sounds like incumbent landslide incoming.
What is the current process of Serbia joining EU?

SNS will win in a landslide even if all the opposition parties are running, as it has done in 2014, 2016 and 2017. IMO there are 3 reasons:
- media control
- electoral fraud
- opposition incompetence.

And it's maybe half of opposition MPs who belong to pro-boycott parties but it's more like approx. 80% of popular support among opposition parties. In 2016 there was a SRS surge due to release of Seselj from Hague tribunal for war crimes but it was short lived and they are back on their standard ~3% of support - it's a major driver of the decline of the anti-boycott parties.

 As for Serbian EU integration process, it's moving at a snail's pace.

Tbh, this is the most important factor.

(Even considering the fact that SNS is serving propaganda left and right through Pink, Happy etc. and buying up/shutting up critical voices)

Seselj? Lol no
Dveri? LOL no
Those old Democrats who split up every month? Ofc. not.

Doesn't leave much except Beli maybe.

[bigic]

Doesn't leave much except Beli maybe.

Beli is way past his peak. After excellent result in the presidential election he got less than 3% in Belgrade city elections. And AFAIK he is running too, but it will be a struggle to get 10 thousand signatures (he struggled even at peak of his popularity in 2017 due to lack of organisation but he somehow managed), expect if he gets help from "outside"...

[Omega21]

Doesn't leave much except Beli maybe.

Beli is way past his peak. After excellent result in the presidential election he got less than 3% in Belgrade city elections. And AFAIK he is running too, but it will be a struggle to get 10 thousand signatures (he struggled even at peak of his popularity in 2017 due to lack of organisation but he somehow managed), expect if he gets help from "outside"...

Yeah, yeah, I know, just saying he's still more likeable than a lot of the opposition.

I just don't see a single solid party that's worth voting for...

[bigic]

Nikola Selaković, the general secretary of the Serbian president, stated that both the parliamentary and the local elections will be held on Sunday 26th of April, in accordance with the legal deadlines. The latest legal date is 3rd of May, a week after that.

One of the opposition demands was separation of local elections from the parliamentary election to reduce the influence of national campaign on the local elections. Which is clearly not met.

https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/selakovic-potvrdio-izbori-u-srbiji-26-aprila/zkw0z5s

He also criticised the boycotting opposition parties.

As for the recently introduced bill that will reduce the threshold from 5% to 3%, he stated that the measure aims to "return democracy from the streets to the parliament". In other words - helping the anti-boycott parties.

[bigic]

"1 out of 5 million movement", which won't boycott the national election, claims that some of the local branches of boycotting opposition parties are preparing to contest the local elections in defiance of the decision to also boycott the local elections.

The response from 2 opposition mayors, from parties which are boycotting the national election:

Marko Bastać, President of Municipality of Stari Grad (Belgrade) from Party for Freedom and Justice (elected as Democratic Party): He "will boycott".

Nebojša Zelenović, Mayor of Šabac from Together for Serbia: He hasn't decided yet. "A good decision will be made."

There are a few more municipalities not ruled by Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), including:
- Novi Beograd, whose president Aleksandar Šapić (Serbian Patriotic Alliance, elected as independent) is against boycott

- Čajetina, whose president Milan Stamatović (Healthy Serbia, elected as a candidate from Serbian People's Party (SNP) that he left over SNP joining the ruling coalition) probably won't boycott

- Paraćin, whose president Saša Paunović is from the Democratic Party, which is pro-boycott.

http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a565964/Deo-opozicije-u-kampanji-bojkota-da-li-ce-i-na-lokalu-slati-iste-poruke.html

[bigic]

A comparison graph: coverage of the presidential candidates in the 2012 and 2017 presidential elections on the main TV channels in Serbia. The main candidates in 2012 were Boris Tadić (DS, incumbent) and Tomislav Nikolić (SNS) and Tomislav Nikolić won. In 2017 the SNS candidate was Aleksandar Vučić, who won the election - but was it fair when he had disproportionately high media coverage (as a result of authoritarian SNS rule)?

https://mobile.twitter.com/GavrilovicZoran/status/1226386076174032896

[Omega21]

One of the opposition leaders, Sergej Trifunovic, just had a second car crash in less than a month. He was found to be on coke after the last crash.

All of them suck.

[bigic]

Twitter suspended the account of Vojislav Šešelj (@predsednikSRS), the leader of far-right Serbian Radical Party (SRS), because of threats and hate speech coming from the account.

Vuk Jeremić, leader of centre-right opposition People's Party (part of pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia), celebrates this move. Sanda Rašković-Ivić, one of the People's Party MPs, was one of the recent targets of Šešelj's threats.

https://twitter.com/jeremic_vuk/status/1226917530243125249

Pro-government tabloid website Republika criticises Vuk Jeremić and Alliance for Serbia, accusing them of hypocrisy on freedom of speech. https://www.republika.rs/vesti/srbija/186491/puna-usta-slobode-govora-opoziciono-maslo-ugasen-seseljev-tviter-nalog

[bigic]

Together for Serbia, the party of mayor of Šabac, Nebojša Zelenović, freezes its participation in Alliance for Serbia for two weeks until it decides on participation in the Šabac local election.

http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a568128/SZS-Ne-menjamo-stav-o-izborima-ZZS-ne-ucestvuje-u-radu-SzS-do-odluke-o-Sapcu.html

[bigic]

Leviathan Movement, an "animal rights" vigilante group, announces that it seeks to contest the parliamentary election and local elections in 15 municipalities.
http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a568356/Bihali-Levijatan-izlazi-na-izbore-u-petnaestak-opstina.html

The group has been criticised for its abusive conduct and for its ties to the far-right: https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/tko-stoji-iza-pokreta-levijatan-prica-je-puno-mracnija-nego-sto-se-cini-na-prvu/2045193.aspx

[bigic]

New parties aren't necessarily anti-government. Pro-government parties which didn't exist in 2016 and seek participation in the elections include:

- Movement for the Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia (POKS) - centre-right monarchist party, a splinter of Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO). Led by Žika Gojković MP.
SPO is also a centre-right monarchist party and was once a major party until 2000, when the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition took most of the SPO's anti-Milošević base. And  SPO also supports the current ruling coalition around SNS.

- Serbian Right (Srpska Desnica) - a far-right party led by Miloš "Miša" Vacić. He first became active in another far-right organisation, "Serbian National Movement 1389", which was known for its violent actions against the LGBT community. In 2017 he was briefly employed in the government's "Office for Kosovo and Metohija" as an assistant. He founded Serbian Right in January 2018.

[CumbrianLefty]

Twitter suspended the account of Vojislav Šešelj (@predsednikSRS), the leader of far-right Serbian Radical Party (SRS), because of threats and hate speech coming from the account.

Crikey, is that old Nazi still maundering on?

[Omega21]

Twitter suspended the account of Vojislav Šešelj (@predsednikSRS), the leader of far-right Serbian Radical Party (SRS), because of threats and hate speech coming from the account.

Crikey, is that old Nazi still maundering on?

I mean, he is on the political sidelines mainly now (think about 3 or 4%).

He got a big boost when he got out of the Hague, mainly due to his intelligence and ability "to beat" the Court.

He is definitely very knowledgable in his field, as he defended himself and got so many witnesses thrown out of the case by "disproving" their testimonies, so obviously this scored him some points with that "stick it to the Court" part of the voter base.

He also got his Law PhD at 25

He earned his doctorate on 26 November 1979 after successfully defending his dissertation (doctoral thesis) titled The Political Essence of Militarism and Fascism, which made him the youngest PhD holder in Yugoslavia at 25 years of age.[13]

Sadly, he did not use his gift for good, and you already probably know the rest.

[bigic]

The new slogan of the electoral coalition around Serbian Progressive party, the biggest party in the ruling coalition: "For our children - Aleksandar Vučić". It will be used in the election campaign and as the name of the electoral list.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sns_srbija/status/1229784287915974656


Right-wing party "Serbian Movement Dveri" (part of pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia) has launched a petition against the immigration policy of the government.

https://balkaninsight.com/2020/02/18/right-wing-serbian-party-launches-anti-immigration-campaign/

[mgop]

these are not elections. in many cities we have hitler-style one party ticket. normal people will boycott, there is no other way.

[bigic]

these are not elections. in many cities we have hitler-style one party ticket. normal people will boycott, there is no other way.

I will also boycott and I agree that the playing field would be very unfair, but I don't think that we would see municipalities where only one list will contest. They would surely introduce some "competition" so you could "choose" between SNS, SPS, SRS, Serbian Right etc., like in Medveđa last year.

[bigic]

People's Party (part of pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia) dissolves its Šabac local wing because the local wing wanted to be excluded from the boycott.
https://www.danas.rs/politika/narodna-stranka-raspustila-gradski-odbor-sabac-zbog-nepostovanja-odluke-o-bojkotu/

This probably means that the opposition Mayor of Šabac, Nebojša Zelenović (Together for Serbia, ex DS) won't boycott.

Another opposition mayor, Saša Paunović of Paraćin from Democratic Party (DS) says that he still hasn't decided.

https://www.danas.rs/politika/paunovic-konacna-odluka-o-izlasku-na-lokalne-izbore-u-paracinu-nije-doneta/

A map of municipalities coloured by presence of Serbian Progressive Party in local government (red: in government, light blue: no data (Kosovo) or in opposition)
Source: NGO CRTA, http://kojenavlasti.rs/mapa.php



Municipalities where Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is in opposition:

- Šabac and Paraćin, already mentioned
- Novi Beograd (Belgrade), led by Aleksandar Šapić of Serbian Patriotic Alliance (anti-boycott), former member of DS
- Stari Grad (Belgrade), led by Marko Bastać of Party for Freedom and Justice (Alliance for Serbia, pro-boycott), former member of DS
- Svilajnac, led by Predrag Milanović (local party), former member of DS
- Čajetina, led by Milan Stamatović of Healthy Serbia (anti-boycott), former member of Serbian People's Party (SNP) and Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)
- Sjenica, ethnic Bosniak majority municipality, led by Hazbo Mujović of Party of Democratic Action (SDA)
- Ćićevac, led by Zlatan Krkić (local party), former member of DS
- Ražanj, led by Dobrica Stojković of New Serbia (anti-boycott)
- Surdulica, a stronghold of Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) where the relations with SNS, its partner in national government, are poor. Led by Aleksandra Popović.
- Bosilegrad, ethnic Bulgarian majority municipality, led by Vladimir Zahariev (local party) who has recently praised Aleksandar Vučić, but Vučić's party remains in opposition in Bosilegrad. Zahariev is a former member of Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS).
- Bujanovac, ethnically mixed municipality, composed mostly of Serbs and Albanians with a significant Roma minority. Led by Shaip Kamberi of Party for Democratic Action (PDD-PVD), an ethnic Albanian party, governing together with ethnic Serb local party led by Stojanča Arsić (anti-boycott).

[bigic]

Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), the two main ruling parties, won't run together.

http://rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a571625/Vucevic-SNS-i-SPS-idu-odvojeno-na-parlamentarne-izbore.html

[Flyersfan232]

What about these monarchists party I heard about?

[bigic]

What about these monarchists party I heard about?

They are pro-government satellite parties. AFAIK, SPO will run on the SNS list and POKS will run independently.

[bigic]

Saša Paunović, mayor of Paraćin, leaves pro-boycott Democratic Party and will participate in the Paraćin local election with his independent list.
https://mobile.twitter.com/demokrate/status/1234860802999562241

[bigic]

The elections will be held on 26th of April. These elections will be held:

- parliamentary (for Parliament of Serbia).
There is a single nationwide constituency, electing all 250 MPs.
The electoral threshold is 3% (5% until recently) and there is no threshold for ethnic minority party lists (ethnic minority parties need just 0,4% to elect an MP).
This is the second parliamentary election a significant part of opposition will boycott (the first was in 1997).

- regional (for Parliament of Autonomous Province of Vojvodina)
There is a single regionwide constituency, electing all 120 MPs.
The electoral threshold is 3% (5% until recently) and there is no threshold for ethnic minority party lists (ethnic minority parties need only 0,8333...% to elect an MP).
This is the first regional election a significant part of opposition will boycott.

- local (for most local parliaments in Serbia)
They will be held in most cities and municipalities in Serbia, except those that had an off-cycle (2017-19) local election.
Cities and municipalities where local elections won't be held this year: cities of Zaječar, Bor and Beograd (local elections will be held in individual municipalities of Beograd), municipalities Kosjerić, Lučani, Aranđelovac, Negotin, Majdanpek, Mionica, Medveđa, Preševo, Kula, Doljevac, Kladovo and Smederevska Palanka.

All municipalities in Serbia consist of a single constituency in which all of the municipality's local councillors are elected.
The electoral threshold is 3% (5% until recently) and there is no threshold for ethnic minority party lists. But the parliaments of some municipalities are so small that in some cases even 5% isn't enough to elect a councillor.
This is the first local election cycle a significant part of opposition will boycott, but the opposition parties were boycotting some of the off-cycle (2017-19) local elections.