Serbian elections (new date: June 21 2020) - To boycott or not to boycott?

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- Pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia has stated that boycott "has succeeded" and that turnout is below 50% (42% according to them) and 32% in Belgrade.

- SPAS leader Šapić says that he won't reject an invitation from SNS to negotiate a coalition government.

- SNS leader Vučić says that he will also invite some extra-parliamentary parties to coalition government negotiations. Which ones?

- Far-right SRS blames SNS for poor result.

Local elections:
In Svilajnac and Čajetina incumbent non-SNS mayors won by large margins.
In Šabac it's still uncertain, as most votes haven't been counted yet.
In Paraćin SNS reportedly has won and they are "celebrating victory" over the incumbent opposition mayor Saša Paunović.
SNS has won in Belgrade municipality of Stari Grad over the incumbent opposition, as most of the opposition vote boycotted the election. Turnout is under 30%.
Poor result for anti-boycott opposition in Belgrade municipality of Vračar and poor turnout too. In 2016 SNS took over Vračar after allegedly corrupting a few opposition councillors - it has now won in a landslide.
In Belgrade municipality of Novi Beograd, incumbent mayor Aleksandar Šapić says that it's tight between his party (SPAS) and SNS.
In most of the rest of Serbia SNS is winning in a landslide.

[Omega21]

- Pro-boycott Alliance for Serbia has stated that boycott "has succeeded" and that turnout is below 50% (42% according to them) and 32% in Belgrade.

- SPAS leader Šapić says that he won't reject an invitation from SNS to negotiate a coalition government.

- SNS leader Vučić says that he will also invite some extra-parliamentary parties to coalition government negotiations. Which ones?

- Far-right SRS blames SNS for poor result.

Local elections:
In Svilajnac and Čajetina incumbent non-SNS mayors won by large margins.
In Šabac it's still uncertain, as most votes haven't been counted yet.
In Paraćin SNS reportedly has won and they are "celebrating victory" over the incumbent opposition mayor Saša Paunović.
SNS has won in Belgrade municipality of Stari Grad over the incumbent opposition, as most of the opposition vote boycotted the election. Turnout is under 30%.
Poor result for anti-boycott opposition in Belgrade municipality of Vračar and poor turnout too. In 2016 SNS took over Vračar after allegedly corrupting a few opposition councillors - it has now won in a landslide.
In Belgrade municipality of Novi Beograd, incumbent mayor Aleksandar Šapić says that it's tight between his party (SPAS) and SNS.
In most of the rest of Serbia SNS is winning in a landslide.

Do you think Vucic will continue the coalition with Dacic?

[Former President tack50]

I read SNS and SPS are both in government? Why? Doesn't SNS have a huge majority?

[Omega21]

I read SNS and SPS are both in government? Why? Doesn't SNS have a huge majority?

Until now, no. He only had 131 seats, with 126 being required for a majority, that's why he joined up with Dacic i.e. SPS.

In total there are 250 seats, and now he is going to get around 190. Let that sink in.

I still think he may continue a coalition Govt. Now that he holds 80% of the seats he maybe wants to at least make it seem like he is cooperating with someone else lol.

For reference, the Hungarian Govt holds around 66% of seats (counting their coalition partner/satelite). Vucic alone will have around 76%.

[bigic]

Do you think Vucic will continue the coalition with Dacic?

I read SNS and SPS are both in government? Why? Doesn't SNS have a huge majority?

Incentives for (non-)entry into coalition government in Serbia are different from incentives in developed democracies. As for SNS and SPS, the main points of contention between these two parties aren't ideological, despite SNS being on "the right" and SPS on "the left".
Main factors in coalition formation in Serbia are IMO (in random order):
- intra-party factions
- inter-party relations
- fear of the other party (SNS fears that SPS would be a strong opposition, SPS fears that SNS would destroy them in opposition)
- access to power (central government for SPS, some local governments for SNS)
- diffusion of responsibility (SNS can't blame anyone but themselves for bad things happening if they rule alone)
etc.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's not like this was not expected, lol...

I ain't even mad.

I'm glad Sapic got in, he's at least somewhat of a humanitarian.

Apart from that, also glad Seselj is most likely going for good. Just hope he fits through the door on his way out and doesn't slip on a Banana (most of you probably won't get the last part, congrats if you do!).

Is this now confirmed?

Only found out recently that he actually started out as a Maoist.

[bigic]

Apart from that, also glad Seselj is most likely going for good. Just hope he fits through the door on his way out and doesn't slip on a Banana (most of you probably won't get the last part, congrats if you do!).

Is this now confirmed?

Only found out recently that he actually started out as a Maoist.

Yes, SRS will be out of parliament, according to partial results released by RIK and projections by CRTA and CeSID.

I'm glad Sapic got in, he's at least somewhat of a humanitarian.

This is what he wants you to think. Šapić's doctoral dissertation is plagiarized, and his list of MPs is a trash can of the Serbian nationalist right.

[bigic]

Official partial results from Electoral Commision (70% of polling places counted). Turnout in the counted polling places is 50,32%.
https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/vest/en/942/seventh-regular-press-conference-of-the-republic-electoral-commission.php

Final projection from CRTA:
https://twitter.com/CRTArs/status/1275014360839135241
https://twitter.com/CRTArs/status/1275015352989212672
https://twitter.com/CRTArs/status/1275018957607575552

Their turnout estimate is 49%.
According to CRTA, between 8 and 10% of polling stations had irregularities and if irregularites weren't present, turnout would drop to 45%.

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Reactions from the EU:

Donald Tusk, president of EPP, congratulates Vučić.

https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP/status/1275017355857461258

Two EPP PMs, Viktor Orban of Hungary and Sebastian Kurz of Austria, also congratulated him.

On the other hand, the S&D group calls the election and the new parliament "not representative" and doubts its legitimacy.

https://twitter.com/TheProgressives/status/1275057963963539456

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Local elections in Šabac will be repeated due to irregularities, after a complaint of the opposition mayor's party to the electoral commission.
https://www.glaspodrinja.rs/aktuelno/16750/ponavljaju-se-lokalni-izbori-u-sapcu

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In Novi Beograd there will be a recount after a complaint by SNS. The list of current mayor Šapić (SPAS) has narrowly won, with SNS second, and the third party, SPS, being a "kingmaker", according to the now rejected results.

https://insajder.net/sr/sajt/vazno/19131/%C5%A0api%C4%87-Izborna-komisija-usvojila-prigovor-SNS-a-ponovo-se-broje-glasovi-na-Novom-Beogradu.htm

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Meanwhile, on the pro-boycott side, centre-right People's Party led by Vuk Jeremić, former Serbian MFA and former president of UN General Assembly, reportedly considers leaving Alliance for Serbia.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OnlineDanas/status/1276085088682496000

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Elections will be repeated at 234 polling stations, with about 200.000 people eligible to vote, due to irregularities.
And according to data from all the polling stations except these 234, turnout is below 50% and results are similar to projections.
https://insajder.net/sr/sajt/vazno/19157/RIK-Izlaznost-ispod-50-odsto-SNS-dobila-6068-odsto-glasova.htm

[bigic]

Election results in municipalities with SNS not in local government

Stari Grad: SNS majority
Novi Beograd: recount (initial results show SPAS (incumbent) plurality)
Šabac: SNS majority, election cancelled due to widespread irregularities, new election soon
Topola: BS plurality (incumbent)
Svilajnac: local party majority (incumbent)
Paraćin: SNS majority
Ćićevac: SNS plurality
Ražanj: local party plurality (incumbent)
Čajetina: ZS majority (incumbent)
Sjenica: SDA plurality (incumbent)
Surdulica: SPS majority (incumbent)
Bujanovac: PD plurality
Bosilegrad: Incumbent (local party) ran together with SNS and won majority

In these 13 municipalities, SNS won a majority in three, and no party has a majority in 6 of them. Three have majorities for non-SNS incumbents and in one municipality election will be repeated.

SNS lost one municipality - Beočin, to SPS.

[Omega21]

Election results in municipalities with SNS not in local government

Stari Grad: SNS majority
Novi Beograd: recount (initial results show SPAS (incumbent) plurality)
Šabac: SNS majority, election cancelled due to widespread irregularities, new election soon
Topola: BS plurality (incumbent)
Svilajnac: local party majority (incumbent)
Paraćin: SNS majority
Ćićevac: SNS plurality
Ražanj: local party plurality (incumbent)
Čajetina: ZS majority (incumbent)
Sjenica: SDA plurality (incumbent)
Surdulica: SPS majority (incumbent)
Bujanovac: PD plurality
Bosilegrad: Incumbent (local party) ran together with SNS and won majority

In these 13 municipalities, SNS won a majority in three, and no party has a majority in 6 of them. Three have majorities for non-SNS incumbents and in one municipality election will be repeated.

SNS lost one municipality - Beočin, to SPS.

Are we not going to talk about the new ethnic minority in Vranje?

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Yeah, Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM) ended up third in the national parliamentary election in Vranje.
Serbian Right is a far-right party that's participating in Vranje local government and AFAIK in Vranje they are mostly composed of former members of Palma's United Serbia (JS). They bought tons of votes from poor and marginalised groups (including the Roma), so the party ended up second in the local election, taking almost 20% of the vote. The party was fourth in the Vranje local ballot, while SVM was fourth on the national ballot. So many of the (barely literate) voters instructed to vote for the fourth local list (Serbian Right) also voted for the fourth national list (SVM).

BTW, Serbian Right participated in local elections, mostly in Southern Serbia, but they didn't participate in the national election for an unknown reason.

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In Bujanovac, an ethnically mixed municipality, a new local government was formed consisting just of ethnic Albanian parties after 18 years of multiethnic government.
The new president of municipality is Nagip Arifi of Democratic Party (DP, not to be confused with national opposition party DS). Serb/national parties (SNS, SPS, Stojanča Arsić's local party) and Roma parties, as well as small Democratic Union of Albanians with one councilor, will be in opposition. There were also negotiations of DP with SNS, but the informal deal between DP and SNS was rejected and a deal between most of the ethnic Albanian parties was reached instead, which SNS alleges was done under influence from Tirana.
Potential re-entry of Serbs into Bujanovac local government might depend on results of negotiations concerning the entry of ethnic Albanian parties into the national coalition government.

https://www.juznevesti.com/Politika/Formirana-vlast-u-Bujanovcu-bez-ucesca-srpskih-partija.sr.html

[bigic]

After Beočin, SNS has been removed from power in another municipality - Bački Petrovac, a municipality in Vojvodina with ethnic Slovak majority.
SNS has won a plurality, but  the new governing coalition includes all the others - JS, SPS, LSV and local party "Nonpartisan and United Ordinary People".
New municipality president is Miroslav Čeman from JS.
https://www.021.rs/story/Izbori-2020/247755/Stranke-se-ujedinile-i-izgurale-SNS-iz-vlasti-u-Backom-Petrovcu.html

But in 2 municipalities, SNS gains power - in Topola and Ćićevac.
In Topola, after 16 years Dragan Jovanović (Better Serbia, ex New Serbia) won't be president. Igor Petrović from SNS has been elected instead, with crucial votes of local party "New People for a Better Topola", which has organised protests against the SNS central government before the election, but also dislikes Jovanović and the way he led the municipality while in power.
http://rs.n1info.com/Izbori-2020/a631189/SNS-na-celu-vlasti-u-Topoli-prvoplasirani-na-izborima-ide-u-opoziciju.html

In Ćićevac, the new coalition is known - SNS, SPS-JS and SRS. President of local parliament has been elected, and Ćićevac will get a president of municipality (mayor) from SNS. Zlatan Krkić (independent, ex DS) goes into opposition.
https://krusevacpress.com/konstituisana-skupstina-u-cicevcu-naprednjaci-preuzimaju-vlast/

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The deal between non-SNS parties in Bački Petrovac has failed. The governing coalition is now SNS-SPS, and the SNS candidate (Jasna Šproh) was elected instead of Miroslav Čeman.
https://www.storyteller.rs/sr/sps-je-ipak-koaliciono-preleteo-kod-sns-koji-ce-i-dalje-voditi-opstinu-backi-petrovec-jedinstvena-srbija-glasna-opozicija/

[bigic]

Repeated local elections will be held in about a third of polling places in Šabac on Saturday after being delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Šabac is one of the cities controlled by the opposition and the current local government hopes to retain control.
And Serbia is still without a central government - a proof that authoritarian systems aren't per se more efficient...

[bigic]

According to reports, SNS in Šabac still has an advantage that has been reduced to just one councillor, but the election could be repeated for the second time at at least 6 polling places, because SNS has tried to commit election fraud this time too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LosZao/status/1302380905516892163

[bigic]

SNS in Šabac negotiates a coalition with the local party led by Nemanja Pajić, a longtime ally of the opposition mayor Nebojša Zelenović. This means that there is no mathematical possibility for Zelenović to stay in power in Šabac.
https://sabac.sns.org.rs/novosti/saopstenja/saopstenje-za-javnost-gradskog-odbora-sns-sabac-21?fbclid=IwAR0eWa9MWMmSE0V-R94-i6Njzfe5u9rOjSqlU0eZylBtqR53YGEXBbFmPQY