Simple question: Does anyone believe Biden will still win this thing?

[MillennialModerate]

He’s in free fall. As I said in my thread earlier this week: I think this thing is over a lot quicker than everyone thinks.

Biden wins South Carolina. But 3 of 4 early states is the ballgame.

Anyone out there still think Biden can win, or WILL win this thing?

[pppolitics]

Every single month, I hear the "Biden is in freefall" theory, yet Biden is still here.

[Podgy the Bear]

Of course he can.   Super Tuesday will tell a lot.  Biden is going to pick up a bunch of delegates from the South plus Texas and California.

I don't think that the results in Iowa and New Hampshire will have long term impact.  It hasn't for several election cycles.

We'll have to see what happens to Klobuchar and Bloomberg (and Buttigieg) over the next several weeks.  I expect a consolidation of moderate support behind one candidate.

[Thomas D]

Sure.   He can still win Iowa if he picks up a lot of Pete and Klobuchar voters in the 2nd round.  That will hurt Bernie's momentum. Bernie will still win NH.  Nevada is too close to call. Biden wins SC.  And from there Biden's strength in the south and mid-Atlantic could be enough to go into the convention with a healthy delegate lead, if not a majority.    

[MillennialModerate]

Every single month, I hear the "Biden is in freefall" theory, yet Biden is still here.

Look I was one of the last people to submit to this theory. I was convinced he would be the nominee the whole time up until a day or two ago

[Mr. Illini]

I think it is too early to say for sure that any one candidate will win this thing. It is still likely to be competitive.

[Mr. Smith]

Primary: Yes, but it'll be close and it'll depend heavily on Super Tuesday and March in general.

General: No.

[SN2903]

He has no chance against Trump but the DNC will find a way to rig it for him which pisses off all the Bernie voters. Trump has got this.

[LabourJersey]

Of course he can win the primary--even if he loses IA and NH, if he comes close in either he can spin that reasonably well, and so long as he wins SC big he'll be in a good position to do very well in states like TX, NC and the other southern states on Super Tuesday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Simple question: does anyone believe the OP is not a concern troll?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1221614935828049921

[OneJ]

> "He's in free fall."

> Biden still in between 25-30% range in the aggregates he pretty much always was while Bernie's climbing.

[Grassroots]

Haven't seen anything to suggest this.

[McGarnagle]

I don't think Biden will end up as the nominee

[RI]

> Biden still in between 25-30% range in the aggregates he pretty much always was while Bernie's climbing.

National polling is irrelevant in primaries. Biden's position in the first four contests has been on a slow decline for months now.

[Diabolical Materialism]

Biden is still the frontrunner in my mind. It will be a seriously hard uphill battle for any candidate to knock him out of that position.

[Sir Mohamed]

Don't panic, Biden isn't in a free fall, BUT his chances dropped over recent weeks and days if you only look at the polls. To gain new ground, he needs Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out as soon as possible and pick up most of their support. This seems to be the main reason he hasn't expanded his support since last summer. He's mainly stuck in the upper 20s and Sanders on track to tie or slightly overtake him. My concern regarding his nomination chances are outright defeats in IA, NH and NV, even 3rd place in the first 2. This would give Sanders huge momentum and stall his campaign. Victory in SC is assured at this moment, but under such unfavorable conditions would be underperforming. Going into ST, Biden is not favored in CA in this scenario. He'd go on to lose the largest state by a fair margin. There is still a path to enough delegates without the first 3 states and without CA, but he needs to hold onto the Atlantic North East, parts of the Midwest (like IL and OH in particular) and strong margins in the South. If Sanders is able to eat into his support there, Biden is on the verge of defeat. The 2 recent polls from TX for sure are a warning sign for Biden not to count on a sizable win in TX.

On the other hand, Biden maintains a 30-35% chance to win IA, which would give him enough momentum to come out strongly of February. In this scenario, he's favored in NV and headed for a big win in SC. I think Sanders' momentum may convince some Klobuchar/Buttigieg voters to strategically switch over to Biden to prevent Sanders from winning IA.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

My mind says Biden will win, but my gut tells me: BERNIE! _{(stolen from Twitter)}

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden can still win it until the thing until next Monday votes are cast in IA. I hope Biden loses but we cant be sure about it. That's why we vote in real elections not mock elections

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The answer will be revealed in 4 days!

[SN2903]

The answer will be revealed in 4 days!

Nah. Even if Bernie wins Iowa and NH DNC will find a way to help Biden get it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The answer will be revealed in 4 days!

Nah. Even if Bernie wins Iowa and NH DNC will find a way to help Biden get it.

What do you think would happen if Bernie gets the most pledged delegates, but not a majority, and then in the second round the super delegates go for Biden?

[ElectionsGuy]

The answer will be revealed in 4 days!

The answer to whether Joe Biden will be the nominee is in 4 days. Make no mistake, If Biden somehow wins Iowa, he's the nominee.

[SnowLabrador]

He's definitely not out of it. If he wins Iowa he's virtually guaranteed to be the nominee. If he doesn't, it's 50-50 between him and Bernie. I'd say he has a 70% chance or so.

[Xing]

He could and is still the most likely to, but it's looking less certain than before.