2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Polkergeist]

Pericles,

What's happened to the Conservatives. They were a threat to passing the threshold in 2014 and then imploded.

I think they have reformed as "New Conservatives", however are they a viable force this year?

[Polkergeist]

When Bridges was leader of National, he ruled out forming government with New Zealand First.

Has Collins retained this position?

[Polkergeist]

When Bridges was leader of National, he ruled out forming government with New Zealand First.

Has Collins retained this position?

Yes, she has.

On the latest poll, that isn't really relevant though. This is yet another shockingly good result for Labour.
Labour-60.9%
National-25.1%
Green-5.7%
ACT-3.3%
NZ First-2.0%

Preferred Prime Minister is Jacinda at 62% and 14.5% for Judith Collins.

Yes.... I am aware it is a hypothetical at this point

[Polkergeist]

A bit of speculation about Greens aiming for Auckland Central

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/nz-election-2020-greens-throwing-everything-at-auckland-central-to-ensure-place-back-in-parliament.html

[Polkergeist]

Things will invariably tighten.  National Party has a strong base so I think odds are they get over 35% and my guess is they probably get in upper 30s.  Most elections National gets over 40% so just getting under 40% let alone under 30% is a bad showing.  Main question is does Labour get a majority on its own or have to rely on Greens.  Yes stranger things can happen but the gap is big enough that National winning outright seems unlikely.  Although if a swing similar to 2017 happened (note National had a 20 point lead at this point), it would be a lot closer.

Of course one must expect *some* National recovery from their present all-time lows, but as things stand getting to the upper 30s is far from "inevitable" I would say.

This Newshub poll will give Collins cover for a bad election result if she can bring the National party vote into the 30's.

Sure its a ~ -10% swing, but Collins can say she saved the furniture.

[Polkergeist]

Flicking through the wikipedia polling pages, the last time ACT was polling higher than today's CB poll was in Dec 2003.

[Polkergeist]

Flicking through the wikipedia polling pages, the last time ACT was polling higher than today's CB poll was in Dec 2003.

That's roughly when the National Party was as weak as it is right now too. Of course, Seymour has also boosted his profile this term by being the lone pro-gun voice and pushing for euthanasia.

It was also just before Brash's Orewa Speech.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2005_New_Zealand_general_election

[Polkergeist]

Interesting breakdown of poll respondents by 2017 vote at the end of the video here:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-newshub-reid-research-poll-shows-labour-governing-alone-as-national-languishes-in-the-20s.html

2017 Labour voters: Lab 83, Nat 5, Grn 5

2017 National voters: Nat 63, Lab 21, ACT 9

40% of 2017 Green voters chose Labour in the poll

43% of 2017 New Zealand First voters chose Labour in the poll

Intending 2020 ACT voters: Nat 37, Maori 10, Lab 10

[Polkergeist]

How eager is Labour to govern on its own if it wins an outright majority by itself?

In the long term they will need coalition partners again when (presumably) normal party support levels reassert themselves in 2023.

Also by cutting the Greens loose they allow an opposition party on their left. Two front fights are never easy.

[Polkergeist]

https://twitter.com/NewshubNZ/status/1313344849215709184

Newshub tv news segment on open season within National.