2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[mileslunn]

I think a lot will depend on economy.  If New Zealand dips into recession could favour National, but if economy says strong slight advantage Ardern but lots of variables.

In favour of Labour

- Ardern is a lot more popular than Bridges on a personal level and often leader # are lead indicators
- Marijuana referendum should help bring out more younger voters who generally tend to vote Labour, see Canada 2015 as Trudeau's promised to legalize marijuana
- Real chance NZ First falls below 5% thus increasing odds Labour + Greens get majority of seats

In favour of National

- More National voters than Labour by default and also tend to show up
- ACT has one seat and high enough in polls even without crossing 5% line, could get an extra seat and that helps make National getting a majority more likely

Off course major events as we saw with Christchurch shooting between now and election could swing things.  For example if Coronavirus hits NZ and government handles it badly could sink them, just as well a strong handling could help them.  I've also heard National may dump Bridges and bring in a more popular leader as Labour last time around looked like they had no chance with Andrew Little, but changing leaders changed all that.

[mileslunn]

National Party did get below 40% in 2005 although that was a different era and that was at the height of third way social democracy.  Today that coalition for Labour probably not feasible as there is a much stronger left wing base amongst millennials who will go elsewhere if Labour moves that close to centre, but at same time being left of that ensures they will struggle outside big cities and amongst older voters who would go for a centrist Labour, but not left of centre (Ardern may not be Third way, but she isn't either hard left like Jeremy Corbyn either).

My guess is National party wins popular vote, but Labour ends up forming government, but wouldn't be surprised if Labour narrowly wins the popular vote or National forms government.  If my prediction happens, it would mean 3 of the 5 Anglosphere countries have leaders who lost popular vote (Trudeau and Trump the other two).

[mileslunn]

I think poll #'s will tighten but unless Ardern does something really stupid, 25 point gap seems too large, but wouldn't be surprised if Labour only wins by 5-10 points.  Would be shocked if National got under 35% and even getting under 40% is pretty bad for them, but may happen.  Also lets remember I believe at this point in 2017, Labour was almost as far back, but they dumped Little and replaced with Ardern so any chance National dumps Bridges, who is a huge liability for party, and replaces with another leader which I would think would help.

[mileslunn]

Does anyone here actually think National Party will get under 30%?  My guess is they will in end get in upper 30s which is pretty bad for them and Labour party will probably get just under 50% which would be their best or one of their best ever.  Labour party at near 60% and National party barely scrapping 30% I cannot see happen.  Right getting under 30% only happens in a few countries and is pretty rare.  Where I live in Canada, our Tories are polling as bad or slightly worse, but usually our Tories get about 10% below what National Party does so bad for them but not off the charts like for National.

[mileslunn]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

Yes, Canada 1993.  The Progressive Conservatives entered the election with a slight lead in the polls, on election night fell to only 2 seats and never come back as they existed then although did in 2006 finally come back after merging with the Reform Party, so it has happened before.  Another was Liberals in Canada in 2011 who imploded pretty badly.  Ironically four years later they were able to bounce back and are now in government.

[mileslunn]

Things will invariably tighten.  National Party has a strong base so I think odds are they get over 35% and my guess is they probably get in upper 30s.  Most elections National gets over 40% so just getting under 40% let alone under 30% is a bad showing.  Main question is does Labour get a majority on its own or have to rely on Greens.  Yes stranger things can happen but the gap is big enough that National winning outright seems unlikely.  Although if a swing similar to 2017 happened (note National had a 20 point lead at this point), it would be a lot closer.

[mileslunn]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

That's interesting, I knew Asians were pro-National but I didn't realise how big National's margin was. Though it depends a bit on when their 2017 poll was taken, if it was before Jacinda becoming leader then it's much less useful and seems like a very weird poll.

Still overall I think National does better amongst whites than non-whites.  Within Asian community, I believe Chinese vote heavily National, but Indian community goes heavily Labour so sort of cancel each other out.  Maori and Pacific Islanders however go heavily Labour.  Still amongst whites I believe a huge age divide.  If not mistaken, I believe National got over 60% of senior's vote in 2017 while amongst millennials, Labour won big and National even when they were in 40s were in 20s amongst millennials.  That is a common trend in English speaking world where millennials are quite left wing but seniors swinging right to counter this.

[mileslunn]

How strict is the lockdown and what is public reaction?  New Zealand is having new cases in single digits daily so quite low compared to other similar sized jurisdictions.  I live in British Columbia, Canada and we have similar population to New Zealand yet over 100 cases a day.  In Europe, New Zealand has similar populations to Norway, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, and Slovakia and all of those generally have over 50 a day and except Norway and Finland, others are over 200 a day.  In US, states with similar populations also multiple hundred a day.  Granted I am sure no one in New Zealand wants those kind of numbers, but would have thought some would be saying, no need for any lockdowns as so low compared to others.  Only problem is many listed were similar to New Zealand back in June thus there is that worry although heading into summer vs. fall probably lessens it.

[mileslunn]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

Not happy seeing ACT that high, though everything else is decent.

Could that be over gun laws.  My understanding is why gun control changes popular, many gun owners opposed them and ACT was only party to oppose change.  Also Collins I think is more moderate so some of the more libertarian elements might prefer ACT.

[mileslunn]

How much of ACT rise is over gun ban?  My understanding is ACT is only party committed to repealing gun ban and while National was right to support it as would have been very tone deaf not too, the minority in gun community tend to put that is number one issue and will switch over just that issue.  Its why One Nation Party after 1996 ban in Australia jumped to 8% and in countries with first past post like Canada and US, its why Conservatives and Republicans won't touch issue for fear of splitting party.  UK different story, but gun ownership is so low there, not same risk as in other four English speaking countries.

Still overall I think barring a major misstep Ardern should get a second term.  Real question is does she form a majority on her own or have to turn to Green Party.  National + ACT getting majority seems very unlikely.

[mileslunn]

I cannot see National + ACT getting majority of seats.  Only way I could see National winning is if New Zealand First gets above 5% as they take from both sides and Winston Peters decides to support National this time as he has supported both parties at different times.  But that seems highly unlikely.  While nothing is certain, I think there is a greater than 95% chance Ardern is re-elected.  Bigger question is does she govern alone or have to rely on the Green Party.  I am guessing Labour would rather go alone as isn't Green party to the left of Labour thus would push party more to the left which could hurt their chances in 2023?

[mileslunn]

Newshub's referendum numbers;

Cannabis referendum:
No-50.5%
Yes-37.9%

End of Life Choice Act referendum:
Yes-61.6%
No-25.5%

It's sad and pretty weird how New Zealand seems set to reject legalising cannabis.

Wow. My opinion of New Zealand has gone down after this (on both counts). Sad!

[I guess I can more than console myself with the incoming Labour landslide though]

Marijuana legalization generally unpopular in most countries.  North America is sort of anomaly as in both Canada and US legalization is popular, but a lot of that has to do with counterculture movement in 60s which was much stronger there and thus marijuana use much more widespread.  US unlike NZ has a strong libertarian culture and generally tends to dislike government rules just in general.  Its why they are struggling so much with COVID-19 and you have many anti-maskers.  Canada doesn't have the libertarian culture US does, but we are sort of an odd mix as very liberal on social issues, probably second most in world after Netherlands, but on economic policy more centrist like New Zealand, not small government free market like US is. 

[mileslunn]

A has been released, with cannabis legalisation ahead 49%-45%. This seems to be an internal poll for the Yes campaign, as it is funded by the Helen Clark Foundation and the New Zealand Drug Foundation which are both Yes supporters. UMR has seemed accurate in the past, so hopefully this is also accurate. There is hope for the Yes campaign, we'll need to see what other polls say. Minor quibble with NZ media also, but the headline saying a 4-point lead shows a likely Yes victory is exaggerating the reliability of polls imo. One day NZ probably gets hit with a relatively normal polling error that swings a close election and so is seen as a huge shock and embarrassment to pollsters.

How come support for legalization for marijuana is so much lower.  I know in both Canada and USA majority support it and while Canada is a very liberal country, I didn't think gap was that big.  Yes we are more liberal than New Zealand but not by 20-30 points.  US is by contrast generally more conservative than New Zealand although does have strong libertarian strain which New Zealand lacks.

[mileslunn]

Hopefully this means turnout is high. Maybe that's part of it, most likely the main reason though is because people prefer voting early to on the day now. For election night, it seems this will mean the results are known pretty early. It'll be a bit of a ripoff, because it looks like the referendum results won't be counted and announced on election night but only revealed afterwards.

Or COVID-19 as in most places more voting early because of that although New Zealand with so few cases, probably fewer who feel voting in person is unsafe.  So hard to say.  In most places, I would just say its a result of pandemic and means nothing.  But with so few cases in New Zealand may be less of an issue.

[mileslunn]

Wasn't National on track for a majority in 2008, 2011, and 2014, yet fell short?  Wondering do Kiwis prefer minority governments as keeps the main party in check.  Based on history my guess is Ardern easily gets a second term, but probably has to form a coalition with Greens.  But in some ways better than first term as I feel Greens are more ideologically compatible with Labour than New Zealand First was.

[mileslunn]

How quickly will results roll in?  I don't believe New Zealand uses exit polls so for those of us on West Coast of North America, poll closes at 11PM Friday, so by 2AM will we have a good idea of final results?

[mileslunn]

From another forum:

Here is a loose timeframe for the counting process, from NZH:

Early votes will begin to be counted at 9am (9PM tonight UK) tomorrownow today at secure electorate headquarters around the country.

Once voting closes tomorrowtoday, the manager of each voting place opens the boxes and counts the votes.

Preliminary numbers will start being released soon after 7pm (7AM UK) tomorrow (Around 720 PM apparently); 50 per cent of the results are expected to be available by 10pm and 95 per cent by 11.30pm.

The official count begins on Sunday and will include special votes, which can come in up to 10 days after election day.

The chief electoral officer will declare the official results 20 days after election day, on Friday, November 6.

So if Labour gets 58-61 seats, we might not know if it is a majority or coalition until after US election is known.

[mileslunn]

Any chance there will be an exit poll or are those illegal in New Zealand?  Most countries usually have exit polls when polls close.  Here in Canada we don't, but our ballots are counted super quick and usually after one hour you have a good idea on whom he won.

[mileslunn]

I am guessing Angela Eagle endorsed Jacinda Ardern?  For Social democrats in Europe, I can see why so many are rooting for her as social democracy has had a rough decade so any success they can find anywhere is a plus.

[mileslunn]

Labour close to 50%, National under 30% so disastrous night.  ACT about as expected so will win seats.  New Zealand First under so probably misses cut off, while Greens outperforming so maybe some on left swung over preferring a coalition?

[mileslunn]

Surprised National is under 30%.  I know they would do bad, but good gawd, they are like down almost 18 points which is massive.

[mileslunn]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

...oh wow. Absolutely NUT results for Jacinda if confirmed.

I mean, she's earned it. Her topnotch leadership through COVID-19 garnered international attention.

Yep. One common thread I've seen in the elections I've followed lately is that COVID, and individual leaders' seriousness and dedication to addressing the issue competently, is one of the rare issues that breaks through traditional party identities. We've seen that in Italy with the recent regional elections (with incumbents that dealt with the crisis well winning with ridiculous percentages like 69% and 76%, which you do not normally see in this country). It's a really interesting trend.

True enough, although Trump has handled it poorly thus why he is not benefitting.  Had he handled it competently, could have won a landslide.  UK though seems normal divide, but it first was breaking down so maybe since BoJo has messed up but not as badly as Trump he has lost all soft supporters, but held onto core.

[mileslunn]

Any idea why legalization of marijuana opposed by most in New Zealand?  In Canada, where I live, close to 70% support legalizing it while in US which is seen as more conservative than New Zealand has majority support too although much closer.