2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, given how infinitesimally small the COVID numbers are in New Zealand, it seemed pretty ridiculous to postpone the election, but I guess it won't change very much in the end. I'm looking forward to this!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

...oh wow. Absolutely NUT results for Jacinda if confirmed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

...oh wow. Absolutely NUT results for Jacinda if confirmed.

I mean, she's earned it. Her topnotch leadership through COVID-19 garnered international attention.

Yep. One common thread I've seen in the elections I've followed lately is that COVID, and individual leaders' seriousness and dedication to addressing the issue competently, is one of the rare issues that breaks through traditional party identities. We've seen that in Italy with the recent regional elections (with incumbents that dealt with the crisis well winning with ridiculous percentages like 69% and 76%, which you do not normally see in this country). It's a really interesting trend.

[Antonio the Sixth]

THE NATIONAL PARTY'S TWITTER PAGE HAS GONE PRIVATE LMAOOOOOOOO

Hahahahahahahahahaha

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it looks like the last few batches dropped have been more right-leaning. No idea whether that trend will continue throughout the night, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour slipping further below the symbolic 50% threshold. I'd be kinda disappointed if they don't cross it, at this point.

I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Is there a place where we can see the breakdown between election-day vs advance vote?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour slipping further below the symbolic 50% threshold. I'd be kinda disappointed if they don't cross it, at this point.

I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Is there a place where we can see the breakdown between election-day vs advance vote?

I'm using the Electoral Commission website and refreshing it every couple of minutes. They have separate pages for advance votes and the overall results.

Labour down to 49.3% now.

Interesting.

This implies Labour is winning 43% of the election day vote, and National 30.8%. If that holds, we should see further tightening, though I'm not sure how much.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Assuming 2/3 advance voting, 1/3 election day, that would end up as Labour 48%, National 27.5%. Let's see if that estimate holds or if something changes.

That would give Labour 62 or 63 seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The pre-election data indicated that the advance vote was nearly 2 million, but the election site with 100% counted has just 1,689,018. Where are the remaining 300k? Are those the fabled "special votes" that will be counted in two weeks? Were they rejected ballots? Or is there some other reason for the discrepancy?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The pre-election data indicated that the advance vote was nearly 2 million, but the election site with 100% counted has just 1,689,018. Where are the remaining 300k? Are those the fabled "special votes" that will be counted in two weeks? Were they rejected ballots? Or is there some other reason for the discrepancy?

A lot of people may have advance voted outside of their electorate, & their votes would be counted as special votes.

Ah, I see. So we can expect around 300k of those then.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When can we expect some referendum news?

And for that matter, when will we see the full results of the general, including advance votes?

[Antonio the Sixth]

By the way, an interesting feature of the agreement is clause 17, "Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to  work with political parties from across Parliament (including the opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the Electoral Commission’s 2012 recommended changes to MMP, electoral finance law, and the length of the Parliamentary term" Hopefully this means that the party vote threshold is lowered to 4% and parliamentary terms are extended to 4 years (though because the latter was twice rejected in referendums decades ago, it would probably need to go to a referendum and be rejected again).

I sure hope it's rejected. Having 3-year terms is one of the best features of NZ (and Australian) politics, and more countries need to follow that model. I already hate that Sweden switched to 4 years in the 90s (and unsurprisingly its politics have become markedly worse since).

[Antonio the Sixth]

By the way, an interesting feature of the agreement is clause 17, "Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to  work with political parties from across Parliament (including the opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the Electoral Commission’s 2012 recommended changes to MMP, electoral finance law, and the length of the Parliamentary term" Hopefully this means that the party vote threshold is lowered to 4% and parliamentary terms are extended to 4 years (though because the latter was twice rejected in referendums decades ago, it would probably need to go to a referendum and be rejected again).

I sure hope it's rejected. Having 3-year terms is one of the best features of NZ (and Australian) politics, and more countries need to follow that model. I already hate that Sweden switched to 4 years in the 90s (and unsurprisingly its politics have become markedly worse since).

If there's strong evidence suggesting 3 year terms produce better outcomes I'm open to changing my mind. My impression was that 4 years would be better so governments could settle in and have more time to actually govern, and it strikes the right balance (3 years being too short, 5 years like the UK or more being too long).

I mean, I don't think it would be possible to have scientific data on the subject given that the sample size of countries that have changed their term lengths is ridiculously small.

I strongly believe that shorter terms are better for democracy, and that incumbents that know they have a long time ahead are more likely to betray their mandates in some way. 3 years is a long time, more than enough to "govern" in a country that doesn't have years-long campaigns like the US. I do think 2 years would be probably too short (even in countries other than the US, but especially the US because the campaign system there is so comically broken) but 4 years is also slightly too long, although it's a reasonable length. 5 years is far too much, yeah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Partially unrelated, but since no less than il bel paese là dove 'l sì suona has terms of 5 years, do you support shortening them? Keeping in mind of course that most of our legislatures do not actually last all of them, let alone our governments.

Yeah, absolutely. In fact, I wish we'd had more early elections than we actually have. I think the infrequency of elections is something that has contributed to the dysfunctionality of our politics. Like, by all logic, we should have dissolved parliament after the 2016 referendum failure, as Renzi wanted. That would have avoided two years of a lame-duck, impotent Gentiloni government just keeping things up until the inevitable defeat. Similarly, going to vote in 2011 would have prevented the Monti disaster (although of course any government in that situation would have found itself doing terribly unpopular things).

Right now I don't want early elections, but that's only because I want this government to reform the electoral system and elect the next President (and also because right now we're in a state of health emergency, of course). If those things weren't issues, I'd say it's probably time to let the right govern and see them screw up.