2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

On that poll I think it is 62/120 seats. It might be better for getting the most progressive government for Labour to fall just short and have to form a coalition with the Greens.

Well, I suppose that in theory they could form a coalition with the Greens even if they already have a majority of seats, but I recognize that's not even remotely going to happen in practice.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

On that poll I think it is 62/120 seats. It might be better for getting the most progressive government for Labour to fall just short and have to form a coalition with the Greens.

Well, I suppose that in theory they could form a coalition with the Greens even if they already have a majority of seats, but I recognize that's not even remotely going to happen in practice.

The Greens could actually be in the government with a Labour majority. John Key for instance got a lot more coalition partners than he needed to get to a bare majority, and he was still going to include other parties when it looked like he'd won a majority in 2014. Labour will want to preserve their relationship with their coalition partners for when they inevitably lose their majority (if they're lucky enough to get one). However the Greens (or NZ First, if they get back in) wouldn't have any leverage. Labour hasn't been clear about how they'd handle a scenario where they get a majority (sensibly).

Well that's pretty good. I thought there were more distrust of coalitions when not strictly necessary in New Zealand, but I guess you are getting used to the magic of (mixed) proportional representation.
I agree that it's sensible not to go into details about a majority scenario.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Could more knowledgeable people explain to me why the Maori Party was founded and why after a good run it slumped and lost all seats at the last election?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Newshub's referendum numbers;

Cannabis referendum:
No-50.5%
Yes-37.9%

End of Life Choice Act referendum:
Yes-61.6%
No-25.5%

It's sad and pretty weird how New Zealand seems set to reject legalising cannabis.

Wow. My opinion of New Zealand has gone down after this (on both counts). Sad!

[I guess I can more than console myself with the incoming Labour landslide though]

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Are all Māori electorates Safe Labour?
What use has the Māori Party anymore?

By the way: I agree with Pericles and Fubart Solman about the emotional satisfaction of National getting <30%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

WOW
The results look awesome. Labour majority!
Also I wouldn't have expected the Māori Party to make a comeback.

By the way, how are the referenda going?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

WOW
The results look awesome. Labour majority!
Also I wouldn't have expected the Māori Party to make a comeback.

By the way, how are the referenda going?

No results for the referenda will be available until October 30.

I understand. I'll wait for October 30 then, and rejoice in Labour's victory in the meantime.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

*dog-whistle for Chinese, there's a reason that both Indian and Chinese immigrants in New Zealand are strong National voters(While elsewhere they align themselves with centre-left parties) and part of that is xenophobia from labour that

Actually to my knowledge people of Chinese ancestry are also strong Conservative voters in Canada (and possibly in the UK too but I may be recalling incorrectly).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I mean, I don't think it would be possible to have scientific data on the subject given that the sample size of countries that have changed their term lengths is ridiculously small.

I strongly believe that shorter terms are better for democracy, and that incumbents that know they have a long time ahead are more likely to betray their mandates in some way. 3 years is a long time, more than enough to "govern" in a country that doesn't have years-long campaigns like the US. I do think 2 years would be probably too short (even in countries other than the US, but especially the US because the campaign system there is so comically broken) but 4 years is also slightly too long, although it's a reasonable length. 5 years is far too much, yeah.

Partially unrelated, but since no less than il bel paese là dove 'l sì suona has terms of 5 years, do you support shortening them? Keeping in mind of course that most of our legislatures do not actually last all of them, let alone our governments.

To be clear I agree with you that New Zealand's 3-year terms are a great feature. It's one of the many things about New Zealand politics I find so soothingly uncomplicated.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1. Mangere has a lot of working class Pacific Islander immigrants I assume?

2. What is the other electorate just below Otaki in the age graph and why are the two of them so significantly older than all the others? Big retirement communities à la The Villages, FL?