2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Possibly the more pertinent question is what the point of ACT is? It's been nearly a decade since they had a second MP, so is it really worth National's while to keep gifting them a safe seat?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also, whilst coronavirus may or may not be a major concern in NZ in 4 months time, it will be in large parts of the world and will hence be in the news frequently. The reminder that NZ appears to have handled it extremely well is unlikely to hurt (always assuming that that's still true in a few months time, obviously.)

[EastAnglianLefty]

What would the FPTP seats look like if that was the result?

[EastAnglianLefty]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

One significant difference there (also relevant to the parallel discussion on the Canada thread) is that Theresa May was a new leader and functioned in many ways as a blank slate for people to reflect their desires for a leader on to. A lot of the backlash was people realising how different May actually was from the figure they'd imagined.

In contrast, both Ardern and Trudeau are known quantities who have been in power for a number of years and whose public images are well established. There could definitely be a shift in polling numbers, but it's unlikely it would be to an analogous extent.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's the stuff about the 'top 12'? Is there a rigid order of precedence for frontbench posts?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Just waiting for the scandal when it turns out their campaign chief has National down to win under 30 seats on PredictIt.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If current polling resembles the actual results, which electorate seats would National be likely to hold on to?

[EastAnglianLefty]

At present, it looks like there's only one constituency where the Nationals are leading the party vote - Papakura, which is Judith Collins' electorate. Even there, the lead is only 50 votes.

[EastAnglianLefty]

At present, it looks like there's only one constituency where the Nationals are leading the party vote - Papakura, which is Judith Collins' electorate. Even there, the lead is only 50 votes.

This has now changed - Labour are leading in the party vote for Papakura, but Epsom is voting for the Nationals.

Several of the Maori electorates look competitive at the moment. If the Maori Party win any of those, does that entitle them to list seats as well?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Have any of the electorate seats flipped now that the full results have been released?