2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/1newsnz/status/1263349120355282944?s=21

https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1263349306968248320

holy sh[inks].


Bye Simon!

[Sestak]

This makes it even more brutal.

Preferred PM
- Jacinda Ardern: 63% (up 21%)
- Simon Bridges: 5% (down 6%)
- Judith Collins: 3% (steady)
- Winston Peters: 1% (down 2%)

Approval ratings
Jacinda Ardern +76
Simon Bridges -40

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

ThErEsA mAy

[Sestak]

Apparently on the same 1 News broadcast where this poll was released, rumors were discussed about Mark Mitchell MP trying to throw his hat into the ring last moment à la Scott Morrison.

[Sestak]

NZF is def out on these numbers. Lab can prob get to majority with around 47 with that - they're at 50 now and the late special votes will break for Labor. Looks very promising.

[Sestak]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

[Sestak]

At present, it looks like there's only one constituency where the Nationals are leading the party vote - Papakura, which is Judith Collins' electorate. Even there, the lead is only 50 votes.

This has now changed - Labour are leading in the party vote for Papakura, but Epsom is voting for the Nationals.

Several of the Maori electorates look competitive at the moment. If the Maori Party win any of those, does that entitle them to list seats as well?

In theory, yes, but 1% of the party vote means they aren't going to get any list seats beyond the electorates.