2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that most govt's right now are experiencing either never-before-seen highs in approval and support, or horrific lows in the previous categories. No govt can capitalize on these numbers though since the source of the support is also preventing any electoral campaigning.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that most govt's right now are experiencing either never-before-seen highs in approval and support, or horrific lows in the previous categories. No govt can capitalize on these numbers though since the source of the support is also preventing any electoral campaigning.

To an extent yeah, but New Zealand has an election on September 19 and as the response has succeeded in largely eliminating the virus domestically that election is likely to go ahead.

Yeah I know which thread I'm responding to lol. The election though is four months away and it's likely the international situation will have changed in any manner of forms. It's also very well possible the unusual circumstances that have boosted everyone's approval will have vanished and the numbers all look more normal.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, whilst coronavirus may or may not be a major concern in NZ in 4 months time, it will be in large parts of the world and will hence be in the news frequently. The reminder that NZ appears to have handled it extremely well is unlikely to hurt (always assuming that that's still true in a few months time, obviously.)

I also fully expect coronavirus to be a thing come August/September, however the situation will have evolved into any number of potentially new phases. This evolution probably ends the international rally-around-the-flag, since everyone would have been in a state of new-normal for 6-7 months, and the early panic and unity would have subsided.

[Oryxslayer]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

Why? There's very little comparison between May and Ardern. The latter is a super effective and popular leader... things Theresa May was never really known for.

I men this is the literal definition of counting chickens before they roost. I would love it if Jacida would get a majority, but it is the golden rule that polls are snapshots in time. The most common fallacy in politics is believing that polls on day x will be the polls on election day.

[Oryxslayer]

It was said in the Candidan thread, but I will repost it here because of relevance.

The tough thing about calling a snap election to take advantage of COVID goodwill (and this goes for all leaders, not just Trudeau), is that it's a very narrow window of opportunity to exploit. If he goes too early, it will be irresponsible and he'll get crucified for playing politics with a pandemic. If he goes too late the COVID goodwill will have worn off and he'll just be a normal incumbent presiding over a crap economy. It's very hard to hit that sweet spot where one still has goodwill but it wouldn't be seen as crazy to call a national election.

Labour's fate is going to depend on the winds of fate, which is why I keep trying to temper expectations. If everything somewhat subsides and it's just a poor economy instead of a crisis triggering other crises, then Labour may have more problems on their hands. If a true second wave shows up then maybe they can maintain the lead, though voters should be more critical of decisions since this is round 2. If the crisis just keeps dragging out, or we get a miracle cure, then Labour may do just fine. They need to hit the sweet spot, and the govt only can influence about 50% of the outcome.

This applies to most other govt's around the world as well looking to exploit their bounce, or trying to recover from the pit they dug by mishandling the crisis.

[Oryxslayer]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

There is also an argument that since National is expecting a loss now, they have decided that it is time to clean up the place, toss out all the dirty laundry, and take the L so that they are better prepared for a future contest. Of course this assumes that there is a floor to their declining vote (probably, but where?) and that they have control of the situation on the inside, two things that are very much uncertain.

Earlier in this thread I noted that once everyone's Coronavirus bump faded, new issues would pop up that could push Jacinda under 50. Well, Corona is not the main thing on the governments plate (though I do think Jacinda is setting herself up to be dragged down to earth with these 'virus free' declarations) and new issues have arisen, but they are in Labour's favor rather than against it. By the time National sorts out it's house, the election will likely have concluded and they will be reduced to safe and list seats.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean national could probably get up to the mid-30s by running a 'check on the labour govt' style campaign. This is what Corbyn's 2017 campaign (an obvious example) began as, and then it started paying big dividends after a majority of the country turned against Theresa May. This midterm-style campaign allows your voters to ignore what you are offering and instead focus more criticality on the governing party. The downside of course is that you are accepting that the governing party will retain the leavers of control. National is in no way able to build itself into an organization that can seriously push even with Labour this cycle, so it might be best to not even try.

So yeah, there are ways national can regain some dignity when campaigning gets serious. However, we are past the point of Labour losing their ability to form a government, be it majority or a Lab+Green coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

I'll take the under on whether Labour gets 61, since everyone else is taking the over. Labour-Green govt.

[Oryxslayer]

Jacinda and the Labour Party should still be cruising to victory, right? I haven't been catching up much with this election for the past 2 or months.

More or less. It's almost guaranteed to be labour forming the govt, just what govt is the question. If say there are only three parties in parliament and a lot of wasted votes, then Labour are getting a majority with their present polling average. Whereas if Winston somehow gets back in alongside ACT and the Greens then Labour are more likely going into coalition or minority govt. Labour's overall end percentage is the most important number if not enough votes are wasted, so this is more or less a game of margins.

[Oryxslayer]

From another forum:

Here is a loose timeframe for the counting process, from NZH:

Early votes will begin to be counted at 9am (9PM tonight UK) tomorrownow today at secure electorate headquarters around the country.

Once voting closes tomorrowtoday, the manager of each voting place opens the boxes and counts the votes.

Preliminary numbers will start being released soon after 7pm (7AM UK) tomorrow (Around 720 PM apparently); 50 per cent of the results are expected to be available by 10pm and 95 per cent by 11.30pm.

The official count begins on Sunday and will include special votes, which can come in up to 10 days after election day.

The chief electoral officer will declare the official results 20 days after election day, on Friday, November 6.

[Oryxslayer]

Just woke up, good to see that my prediction prediction of Labour under 61 didn't come to pass. This is an unsustainably strong result in MMP, so Labour better use their majority well before the next election.