2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Former President tack50]

I mean, isn't New Zealand one of those very few countries where the left (Labor) is actually more anti-immigration than the right (National)?

If so, an NZ First-Labour deal makes perfect sense. Many right wing populists tend to be actually economically centrist or even to the left.

[Former President tack50]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

[Former President tack50]

Why is National divided? Is it simply a reaction to them being quite down in the polls and feeling their leader is ineffective? Or is there a deeper idelogical divide (radicals vs moderates, some sort of dividing issue, etc)

[Former President tack50]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

Well, in Spain there is the infamous case of UCD in 1982 (much worse than National and on par with PASOK), though that was more of a gradual collapse throughout their entire 3 year term as the party gradually dissolved in a spiral of infighting. Though looking at the super old polling in Wikipedia it seems the collapse accelerated quite a bit in early 1982.

[Former President tack50]

I thought the threshold was 4% and not 5%?

If it's 4%, NZF has a possibility for an upset but it is unlikely. If it is 5% they are toast I guess, unless they somehow win an electorate.

[Former President tack50]

I imagine that a single electorate is hard to predict, especially one of the Maori electorates; but how did no one see it coming that the Maori Party had a chance at a comeback?

Or was it actually somewhat expected? (granted 1 electorate is not much but I don't think anyone expected it?)