2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Mike88]

New polling:

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1267420166788431873

[Mike88]

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

Its nearly August, time for any major polling turnaround is fast running out now.

It's still possible, look what happened last year here in Portugal: the PS had leads of 17-20% over the PSD in the polls in early September/late August, but by election day they were polling ahead in single digits, 7-8%.

[Mike88]

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

Its nearly August, time for any major polling turnaround is fast running out now.

It's still possible, look what happened last year here in Portugal: the PS had leads of 17-20% over the PSD in the polls in early September/late August, but by election day they were polling ahead in single digits, 7-8%.

PSD was not in a complete state of disarray having had three different leaders in the last six months before the election.

True, however, and to not prolong a discussion about another country in this thread, the PSD had a leadership coup in January 2019 in which the leader survived but showed divisions in the party, a former PM and leader left the party to form his own party, and the party suffered in May their worst result ever in an election in democracy, plus a lot of stupid mistakes made them look silly. So the situation was a bit grim.

My point is, Jacinda will win but two months is a long time in politics. The National party can still recover part of its base and rise to around 34-35% and that seems not that difficult as this election seems it will be a very bipolarized one between Labour and National.

[Mike88]

The Nationals clearly underpolled in this election. But, overall, I believe the result was expected. Jacinda did a good job handling the virus and basically sealed the race. The Nationals did a really bad campaign and didn't even try to make inroads. This is the best result from Labour since the 2nd World War, right?