Amazingly, a fourth party had an excellent night as well. I don’t think anyone predicted that the Māori Party would gain a seat. I myself had guessed that they wouldn’t and would in fact be heading the way of Mana before too long. Instead, they gained an electorate despite a Labour landslide. I think it’s even more shocking than Swarbrick winning Auckland Central. Last time Labour swept through Maori electorates with over 10% less of the party vote and yet, somehow the Māori Party pulled it off.
Edit: I guess you could say that I thought the Māori Party was dead in the foreshore and seabed water.
I don't think you can say that its that suprising - the Maori electorates have a lot of history of shifting against the national tide and behaving in strange ways and the campaigns in them are always very local so candidates matter a massive amount. Labour dominated the Party vote in them (actually very similar to the national swing in them) so its not an anti-Labour thing in this case: I think you had a few strong candidates plus since Labour put their Maori seat candidates on the list this time (which they mostly didn't do last time) the Maori Party candidates were able to argue that a vote for them wasn't a vote against the incumbent MPs who were almost guaranteed to be re-elected on the list unless the polls were very wrong: but instead a way of guaranteeing additional Maori representation in Parliament and that has a very strong appeal. I don't think anyone was expecting it but its not something you could have ruled out going into the campaign: they are the most volatile electorates.
