2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Pericles]

Mask and social distancing requirements will be gone in Auckland from 11:59 pm on Wednesday. This is the tenth consecutive day without community transmission in New Zealand. Jacinda Ardern said that there is an at least 95% chance that the Auckland cluster has been eliminated. So New Zealand is now entirely back to normal life, with the exception of the borders being closed.

With the election, hopefully this reinforces the boost Labour have received from their Covid response and ensures a landslide victory. Voting started two days ago, and many people will vote before October 17, so time has almost completely run out for the National Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Here's hoping

[Pericles]

A UMR poll has been released, with cannabis legalisation ahead 49%-45%. This seems to be an internal poll for the Yes campaign, as it is funded by the Helen Clark Foundation and the New Zealand Drug Foundation which are both Yes supporters. UMR has seemed accurate in the past, so hopefully this is also accurate. There is hope for the Yes campaign, we'll need to see what other polls say. Minor quibble with NZ media also, but the headline saying a 4-point lead shows a likely Yes victory is exaggerating the reliability of polls imo. One day NZ probably gets hit with a relatively normal polling error that swings a close election and so is seen as a huge shock and embarrassment to pollsters.

[mileslunn]

A has been released, with cannabis legalisation ahead 49%-45%. This seems to be an internal poll for the Yes campaign, as it is funded by the Helen Clark Foundation and the New Zealand Drug Foundation which are both Yes supporters. UMR has seemed accurate in the past, so hopefully this is also accurate. There is hope for the Yes campaign, we'll need to see what other polls say. Minor quibble with NZ media also, but the headline saying a 4-point lead shows a likely Yes victory is exaggerating the reliability of polls imo. One day NZ probably gets hit with a relatively normal polling error that swings a close election and so is seen as a huge shock and embarrassment to pollsters.

How come support for legalization for marijuana is so much lower.  I know in both Canada and USA majority support it and while Canada is a very liberal country, I didn't think gap was that big.  Yes we are more liberal than New Zealand but not by 20-30 points.  US is by contrast generally more conservative than New Zealand although does have strong libertarian strain which New Zealand lacks.

[brucejoel99]

A UMR poll has been released, with cannabis legalisation ahead 49%-45%. This seems to be an internal poll for the Yes campaign, as it is funded by the Helen Clark Foundation and the New Zealand Drug Foundation which are both Yes supporters. UMR has seemed accurate in the past, so hopefully this is also accurate. There is hope for the Yes campaign, we'll need to see what other polls say. Minor quibble with NZ media also, but the headline saying a 4-point lead shows a likely Yes victory is exaggerating the reliability of polls imo. One day NZ probably gets hit with a relatively normal polling error that swings a close election and so is seen as a huge shock and embarrassment to pollsters.

Watch it end up being a very close result, like less than a 1% difference.

[Pericles]

Lol, 'strong team'.
National MPs leaking against Collins, accuse her of "making up policy on the hoof"

A National MP has told 1 NEWS the party hasn’t had a caucus call or poll result for weeks and says there is a culture issue in the party.

The MP told 1 NEWS Judith Collins has “bullied” MP Denise Lee and hasn’t brought the caucus together.

It comes after an email leaked to Newshub showed National's Auckland Council spokesperson Denise Lee criticising a National policy to review Auckland Council.

Lee called it a "highly problematic idea", a "nightmare" and "another working group", and said bypassing her was "incredibly poor form and displays a shockingly bad example of poor culture", while another National Party member said Collins was consistently "making up policy on the hoof" and creating division.

[Polkergeist]

https://twitter.com/NewshubNZ/status/1313344849215709184

Newshub tv news segment on open season within National.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lol, 'strong team'.
National MPs leaking against Collins, accuse her of "making up policy on the hoof"

A National MP has told 1 NEWS the party hasn’t had a caucus call or poll result for weeks and says there is a culture issue in the party.

The MP told 1 NEWS Judith Collins has “bullied” MP Denise Lee and hasn’t brought the caucus together.

It comes after an email leaked to Newshub showed National's Auckland Council spokesperson Denise Lee criticising a National policy to review Auckland Council.

Lee called it a "highly problematic idea", a "nightmare" and "another working group", and said bypassing her was "incredibly poor form and displays a shockingly bad example of poor culture", while another National Party member said Collins was consistently "making up policy on the hoof" and creating division.

Well, they seem confident.

[skbl17]

New Colmar Brunton poll! Not much has changed versus the last poll, though:

- Labour: 47% (no change)
- National: 32% (-1)
- ACT: 8% (no change)
- Green: 6% (-1)
- NZ First: 2% (+1)
- TOP: 2% (+1)
- New Conservative: 1% (no change)
- Advance NZ: 1% (no change)

There was some movement on the preferred PM metric, with Jacinda now on 50% (down 4%,) but no gains for other party leaders.

Translated to seats:

- Labour: 60
- National: 41
- ACT: 11
- Greens: 8

[CumbrianLefty]

Given the continuing clown car that is the Nationals, a swing back to Labour in the final days (giving them very possibly an overall majority) can't be ruled out.

[brucejoel99]

Given the continuing clown car that is the Nationals, a swing back to Labour in the final days (giving them very possibly an overall majority) can't be ruled out.

True but with there being so much early voting, a lot of these votes will have already been locked in.

[Pericles]

Hopefully this means turnout is high. Maybe that's part of it, most likely the main reason though is because people prefer voting early to on the day now. For election night, it seems this will mean the results are known pretty early. It'll be a bit of a ripoff, because it looks like the referendum results won't be counted and announced on election night but only revealed afterwards.

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, it's gonna be a short election night.

[mileslunn]

Hopefully this means turnout is high. Maybe that's part of it, most likely the main reason though is because people prefer voting early to on the day now. For election night, it seems this will mean the results are known pretty early. It'll be a bit of a ripoff, because it looks like the referendum results won't be counted and announced on election night but only revealed afterwards.

Or COVID-19 as in most places more voting early because of that although New Zealand with so few cases, probably fewer who feel voting in person is unsafe.  So hard to say.  In most places, I would just say its a result of pandemic and means nothing.  But with so few cases in New Zealand may be less of an issue.

[Pericles]

Hopefully this means turnout is high. Maybe that's part of it, most likely the main reason though is because people prefer voting early to on the day now. For election night, it seems this will mean the results are known pretty early. It'll be a bit of a ripoff, because it looks like the referendum results won't be counted and announced on election night but only revealed afterwards.

Or COVID-19 as in most places more voting early because of that although New Zealand with so few cases, probably fewer who feel voting in person is unsafe.  So hard to say.  In most places, I would just say its a result of pandemic and means nothing.  But with so few cases in New Zealand may be less of an issue.

Yeah, Covid is probably accelerating the trend. People might want to lock their votes in, in case the situation changes before the election.

[CumbrianLefty]

There was also a clear trend towards early voting in previous elections, though. As with other things, the virus has often accelerated developments that were already happening.

[skbl17]

New UMR poll. UMR is Labour's internal pollster, but this doesn't appear to be an internal poll for the party.

https://twitter.com/henrycooke/status/1315857609161752576

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, the real question of this election at this point is basically whether Labour is able to govern alone or ends up needing the Greens, which seems similar to 2011 & 2014, when National kept polling in the 48%-54% range & ended up on 47% in both elections with 59 seats in 2011 & then 60 seats in 2014.

[Pericles]

Final Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-46%(-1%)
National-31%(-1%)
Green-8%(+2%)
ACT-8%(_)
NZ First-3%(+1%)

Labour would fall short of an outright majority on this poll.

Preferred PM is 55% Jacinda Ardern to 20% Judith Collins, net approval is +55% and +6% respectively.

National has also had a weak ending to the campaign, with Judith Collins mainly making headlines over the last few days for calling obesity a 'personal choice'. Meanwhile, Labour is using the 'strong and stable' slogan a lot lol, which I'd thought was cursed after how it ended up for Theresa May. Odds are that Labour will achieve technically the same result (hung parliament), but in a much different political context.

[skbl17]

Also have a new Roy Morgan poll (changes compared to their last poll in August):

- Labour: 47.5% (-0.5%)
- National: 28.5% (-)
- Greens: 9.5% (-2%)
- ACT: 7% (+1%)
- NZF: 2.5% (-)
- TOP: 1.5% (+0.5%)
- Maori: 0.5% (-)
- Others: 3% (+1%)

In terms of seats, Labour just reaches the majority threshold of 61 seats:

- Labour: 61
- National: 38
- Greens: 12
- ACT: 9

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the Green figure at least seems to be "herding" in those two polls.

[mileslunn]

Wasn't National on track for a majority in 2008, 2011, and 2014, yet fell short?  Wondering do Kiwis prefer minority governments as keeps the main party in check.  Based on history my guess is Ardern easily gets a second term, but probably has to form a coalition with Greens.  But in some ways better than first term as I feel Greens are more ideologically compatible with Labour than New Zealand First was.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Fubart Solman’s Prediction

Labour   47.4%   62 Seats
National 29.9%   39 Seats
ACT         7.4%   10 Seats
Greens     6.9%    9 Seats

NZ First 3.2%
NCP 1.6%
TOP 1.2%
Māori 0.9%
Advance NZ 0.7%
Others 0.8%

A “wasted” vote of 8.4%. I’m pretty sure there’s only going to be 4 parties in Parliament, with ACT in 3rd and the Greens in 4th. I think Labour will squeak by with a majority of seats due to only effectively needing a majority of 91.6% of the votes (so, 45.8%) rather than the full 50%.

[brucejoel99]

Final Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-46%(-1%)
National-31%(-1%)
Green-8%(+2%)
ACT-8%(_)
NZ First-3%(+1%)

[...]

Colmar under-polled NZF by 2.3% in their final poll last time. Perhaps Winston has one last trick up his sleeve after all

[Pericles]

Final Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-46%(-1%)
National-31%(-1%)
Green-8%(+2%)
ACT-8%(_)
NZ First-3%(+1%)

[...]

Colmar under-polled NZF by 2.3% in their final poll last time. Perhaps Winston has one last trick up his sleeve after all

Yeah, apparently they have him on literally 2.7% (up from 2.4% in the last poll). I hope he does lose, but it would be hilarious too if he gets 5.0% exactly. Still, I don't think it's happening. I did see this tweet about the average Colmar Brunton polling errors.

Unfortunately, I can't find the decimal numbers for all the parties in that Colmar Brunton poll. So I'll give my best estimate, based on rounding.
Labour-46%
National-30%
ACT-8%
Green-7%
NZ First-3.5% (since I did find the numbers for them)

I put these into a seat calculator and got 61 Labour, 39 National, 11 ACT, and 9 Greens. However it would be very close, based on the exact decimals (they had to actually get 46.0% or higher).

I'll wait for the Newshub poll, since I think there is a final one coming tonight, and then see what my prediction is.