2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Pericles]

Now there is yet another scandal, this time with Labour. Jacinda Ardern just fired Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway (also Minister of Workplace Relations) for an "inappropriate relationship" with a former staffer, and he will be standing down too at this election. This comes after Judith Collins said yesterday that she received a complaint about a Labour minister, which she passed on to Jacinda. This is really ridiculous and frustrating, there have been so many scandals and Parliament needs to clean up its act.

[Pericles]

This election is so good. Is it always this spicy, or am I just paying more attention this time?

This seems unusually spicy, though 2017 was also a really volatile and exciting race so it could be two crazy elections in a row. 2014 did have the Dirty Politics saga and Kim Dotcom taking a high profile. That culminated in the 'Moment of Truth' where Kim Dotcom, Glenn Greenwald, Edward Snowden and Julian Assange all accused the government of mass surveillance and tried to get people to vote against National. Predictably, that was a flop.

[Pericles]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

From an objective nonpartisan perspective, Ardern sounds like she’s handling the situation exactly how someone should: take responsibility and hold folks accountable. What’s a better way to handle it?

To take her part of responsibility and resign.

Maybe I’m misinformed, but as I understand it there was no wrongdoing on her part, only of her minister. Is there info I’m missing?

Yeah, I don't see any reason why Jacinda Ardern should resign. She handled this pretty well, and tbh Collins did too (though she may have ignored the Falloon issue for a few days to avoid overshadowing some of her infrastructure announcements).

[Pericles]

When Bridges was leader of National, he ruled out forming government with New Zealand First.

Has Collins retained this position?

Yes, she has.

On the latest poll, that isn't really relevant though. This is yet another shockingly good result for Labour.
Labour-60.9%
National-25.1%
Green-5.7%
ACT-3.3%
NZ First-2.0%

Preferred Prime Minister is Jacinda at 62% and 14.5% for Judith Collins.

[Pericles]

There were some other findings from the poll that were also really bad for National. Firstly, the issue of trust for the two main party leaders. The net trust ratings are as follows (link);
Jacinda Ardern +62.4%(79.4%-17.0%)
Judith Collins -18.9% (30.8%-49.7%)

That is brutal, and shows that Collins is by no means a perfect choice, bringing a lot of baggage to her new role. There's also this part of the article;

Ardern, when asked by Newshub if it's ever okay for a politician to lie, said, "No."

But Collins takes a different view on lying.

When asked the same question, Collins said, "I think it is occasionally going to be one of those things where you just can't tell everything about something."

She's totally out of step with voters on this in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll.

Voters were asked if it's ever okay for politicians to lie, and 86.3 percent said "no" while just 9.9 percent said "yes".

Bad move from Collins. Given Bill English got tripped up on that, she should have just lied that she doesn't think politicians should lie.

Side-note, Newshub being salty about National calling their poll a "rogue poll" is hilarious, I don't think "the constant lashing out at accurate scientific polling" is the cause of National's trust problems.

Here is the second finding, and this is perhaps even more damaging. On which party is most trusted to run the economy (link):
"A Labour-led government under Jacinda Ardern" 62.3%
"A National-led government under Judith Collins" 26.5%

This is absolutely devastating for National's election hopes. Their slogan is "Strong Team [lol] More Jobs, Better Economy". I was thinking they were arrogant to think people would just presume they're better at running the economy. National's main strategy seems to be announcing new roads.

[Pericles]

In the two MMP elections where the governing party was polling at majority government levels, they ended up losing enough support in the campaign to fall short.
2011 election (not seen on this graph is a big NZ First surge at the end)

2002 election


The noticeable thing here is that the governing party lost support to the minor parties, rather than the other main party. However, it might be that the minor parties are too weak this time for that to occur again (the Greens only have limited ideological appeal, NZ First is shedding a lot of support and ACT has a very low starting point-0.5%-and might lose some momentum from Judith Collins being leader). The main precedent for a major party having a big campaign surge is of course Labour in 2017, and maybe Judith Collins will get a boost from having more cut-through than Bridges and Muller. However, she doesn't have Jacinda-level charisma and there isn't anything close to the pre-existing mood for change that there was in 2017.

[Pericles]

Colmar Brunton poll (last poll was during Todd Muller's leadership)

[Pericles]

Flicking through the wikipedia polling pages, the last time ACT was polling higher than today's CB poll was in Dec 2003.

That's roughly when the National Party was as weak as it is right now too. Of course, Seymour has also boosted his profile this term by being the lone pro-gun voice and pushing for euthanasia.

[Pericles]

With recent cases of community transmission of Covid-19 in Auckland, there is now doubt over whether the election will go ahead as planned on 19 September. Judith Collins has called for the election to be delayed until November or even next year. In a development that suggests this isn't entirely impossible, the dissolution of parliament that was scheduled for today got delayed for several days. However, this outbreak is pretty tame so far (4 confirmed community transmission cases in one household and 4 linked probable cases), and it should be contained pretty quickly. If it does escalate into a second wave like in Victoria, then there might need to be a delay. However, this looks like National is just trying to buy time due to their bad polls, and it reflects badly on them that their first reaction to the new cases was to call for an election delay. There are some more legal mechanisms for a delay than countries like the US-this article explains how it could work.

If the election goes ahead as planned, these new cases could impact the campaign. The worst-case scenario, both for public health and politically, is that it is a second wave. That could be a game changer. If it's handled well, then the effect is just to compress the campaign period. Even though community transmission is a blot on Jacinda's record, taking out at least a week of the election campaign with Covid news is hardly bad for Labour. Hopefully-for the country most importantly-the outbreak is quickly contained and things can go back to normal.

[Pericles]

The election has been delayed until 17 October due to the new Covid-19 outbreak, and that a majority of MPs supported a delay to the election with National and NZ First demanding it. Even though their demands are clearly politically motivated, sticking with 19 September did risk a political and constitutional crisis. I would have liked her to tell them to go to hell, but it's probably the safer choice to just delay the election and turnout might be higher than it would have been.

[Pericles]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

Oh yeah, that basically confirms my instinct that this race is overrated and NZ First won't be saved by an electorate if they get below 5%. Also interesting were the party vote numbers, 41% Labour-38% National (it was 46% National-30% Labour in 2017). On a uniform swing that implies 48% Labour nationwide to 36% National. I'm not sure whether the swing to Labour would be higher or lower than nationwide in this relatively rural conservative electorate. It's probably lower given that if these uniform swing numbers were in a nationwide poll, it would be considered a good poll for National.

[Pericles]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

Oh yeah, that basically confirms my instinct that this race is overrated and NZ First won't be saved by an electorate if they get below 5%. Also interesting were the party vote numbers, 41% Labour-38% National (it was 46% National-30% Labour in 2017). On a uniform swing that implies 48% Labour nationwide to 36% National. I'm not sure whether the swing to Labour would be higher or lower than nationwide in this relatively rural conservative electorate. It's probably lower given that if these uniform swing numbers were in a nationwide poll, it would be considered a good poll for National.

I wonder if part of the good numbers for National are from folks who had been NZ First voters. NZ First did almost twice as well in Northland as their nationwide average.

Speaking of NZ First, I think even WINston would have troubles winning the electorate with 2% in the national party vote.

He lost it last election when NZ First was getting 7% of the vote and he was the incumbent MP (after a fluke by-election win).

[Pericles]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

That's interesting, I knew Asians were pro-National but I didn't realise how big National's margin was. Though it depends a bit on when their 2017 poll was taken, if it was before Jacinda becoming leader then it's much less useful and seems like a very weird poll.

[Pericles]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

That's interesting, I knew Asians were pro-National but I didn't realise how big National's margin was. Though it depends a bit on when their 2017 poll was taken, if it was before Jacinda becoming leader then it's much less useful and seems like a very weird poll.

Still overall I think National does better amongst whites than non-whites.  Within Asian community, I believe Chinese vote heavily National, but Indian community goes heavily Labour so sort of cancel each other out.  Maori and Pacific Islanders however go heavily Labour.  Still amongst whites I believe a huge age divide.  If not mistaken, I believe National got over 60% of senior's vote in 2017 while amongst millennials, Labour won big and National even when they were in 40s were in 20s amongst millennials.  That is a common trend in English speaking world where millennials are quite left wing but seniors swinging right to counter this.

Unfortunately we don't have exit polls so it's hard to know the exact demographic patterns, and the late shift in the 2017 campaign complicates this further. That said, you're probably right about there being an age divide. Maori and Pacific Islanders are very strong demographics for Labour (this article has some information about that in the 2017 election). On the party vote level, Labour's support has been pretty weak in most electorates for the last few elections, even 2017 was still only 37% and 7 points behind National. It will be very interesting to see where Labour's gains end up coming from, especially if Labour does end up getting an outright majority.

[Pericles]

An interesting feature of the 2017 election was that while National's overall party vote decreased, I think in electorates where there were high Asian populations National's vote held steady or even increased. That may have been a backlash to Labour's promise to reduce immigration.

[Pericles]

Very weird poll. Even if the latest Covid-19 cluster has cost Labour support, I doubt the Greens are the main beneficiaries. In any case, the Greens have been hit by a recent controversy over their ministers giving $12 million in taxpayer funding to a 'green' private school, which has been seen as hypocritical.

[Pericles]

Yes, the Greens are in a vulnerable position and Shaw was hit hard by the green school scandal. Hopefully they manage to make it back in though.

Labour announced their tax policy yesterday. The current top marginal tax rate is 33% for every dollar above $70,000, Labour will raise that to 39% for every dollar above $180,000. They have ruled out any further tax changes. They seem to have handled it well by emphasising how it only affects 2% of taxpayers, and this seems like a good balance to strike politically (policy-wise, they probably should be doing more).

[Pericles]

If NZF are really at 4% now , have to think theyd have a good shot at staying in Parliament, given how they usually trend during a campaign.

Yes, though I think the internal pollsters have put NZ First higher than the public polls. Their standing has flat-lined in recent months and the general impression seems to be that time's up for Winston. Maybe he will manage to pull off a comeback again though.

[Pericles]

The delay may prove to be fortuitous for the Greens if people forget about the school scandal by mid-October rather than the Saturday after next.

Yes, ironic given they opposed the delay. And it probably wasn't Winston and Judith's intention to save the Green Party.

[Pericles]

By the way, there have been two recent polls for the cannabis referendum. The first, by Research New Zealand, showed the No side leading with 46% to 39% for Yes (a shift from their previous poll which had Yes up 43%-39%). A Horizon Research poll has it tied 49.5%-49.5% (link). Unfortunately, New Zealanders seem weirdly authoritarian on this issue, and public concern about mental health is reducing support for legalisation (while the nuanced and sensible argument that legalisation is the best way to reduce harm is struggling to get through to people). At least October 17 will have some suspense.

[Pericles]

Very interesting poll, though not too surprising. I just saw Swarbrick spinning the poll as showing it's "a three-way race" lol.

Well, given how infinitesimally small the COVID numbers are in New Zealand, it seemed pretty ridiculous to postpone the election, but I guess it won't change very much in the end. I'm looking forward to this!

Perhaps, we have gone four consecutive days without community transmission again. Though they didn't know this at the time. If the campaign had gone ahead and the numbers had remained the same, it might have been unfair as Auckland would have been in lockdown for much of the campaign. I did think the delay was a politically motivated demand by National and NZ First, but it probably won't matter in the end (or as I pointed out earlier, could end up saving the Green party instead).

EDIT; Another interesting feature of the poll was the party vote figures for the electorate. Here are the numbers, with the change from 2017 in brackets; Labour 56.2% (+18.4%), National 23.1% (-16.4%), Green 12.1% (-1.8%), ACT 3.9% (+2.8%) and NZ First 1.6% (-2.3%). That does suggest a Labour landslide nationwide, perhaps a huge majority-though I do expect that the swing will be greater than the nationwide one in electorates like this (and electorate polls are less reliable than nationwide polls anyway).

[Pericles]

How strict is the lockdown and what is public reaction?  New Zealand is having new cases in single digits daily so quite low compared to other similar sized jurisdictions.  I live in British Columbia, Canada and we have similar population to New Zealand yet over 100 cases a day.  In Europe, New Zealand has similar populations to Norway, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, and Slovakia and all of those generally have over 50 a day and except Norway and Finland, others are over 200 a day.  In US, states with similar populations also multiple hundred a day.  Granted I am sure no one in New Zealand wants those kind of numbers, but would have thought some would be saying, no need for any lockdowns as so low compared to others.  Only problem is many listed were similar to New Zealand back in June thus there is that worry although heading into summer vs. fall probably lessens it.

None of New Zealand is in lockdown anymore. There are some social distancing requirements (gatherings limited to 100 or less nationwide and stricter limits in Auckland) and stuff like mandatory masks on public transport, people are supposed to scan the CovidTracer app (and businesses are required to display QR codes for it). The main question is whether the rest of the country can eliminate all restrictions on gatherings and distancing (and perhaps get rid of mandatory masks too), so going back to level 1. This is because the whole cluster so far has been in Auckland only. The decision on that is due tomorrow afternoon. There was however a weird case today-https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122827196/coronavirus-two-new-community-cases-of-covid19-not-linked-to-the-auckland-cluster This person may have had an extremely long incubation period, or could have gotten it in Christchurch (which is more worrying). I'm not sure what the government's reaction to this is but my initial thoughts are that Christchurch may have to keep the current restrictions too.

[Pericles]

The National Party campaign launch was a bit of a disaster-https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12366421 In an ironic echo of the alleged $11.7 billion hole Labour had last election (except this hole was real), National made a $4 billion miscalculation in its alternative budget and its finance spokesperson-Paul Goldsmith-was forced to apologise. This mistake helps Labour's attempts to replace National as the best perceived economic manager.

[Pericles]

Everywhere except Auckland is moving back to level one-no domestic Covid restrictions like mandatory masks on public transport or limits on gatherings. Auckland will remain at level 2 so there will still be limits on mass gatherings. With regards to the election, the nightmare scenario for Labour has been prevented and this should seal the deal for them.

[Pericles]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)