2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Pericles]

Turns out that UMR poll was no outlier.



ACT is on 1.8% in this poll.

Labour have to be very, very strongly favoured to win the upcoming election now. It's very well deserved too, the government's response to Covid-19 has been excellent (another day of 0 new cases today and life is almost normal again) and Jacinda Ardern generally has been a great leader overall. 

[brucejoel99]

Turns out that UMR poll was no outlier.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-jacinda-ardern-goes-stratospheric-simon-bridges-is-annihilated/_jcr_content/par/image_737964642.dynimg.full.q75.jpg/v1589779636440/PARTY_STANDINGS_1.jpg

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-jacinda-ardern-goes-stratospheric-simon-bridges-is-annihilated/_jcr_content/par/image_1833564311.dynimg.full.q75.jpg/v1589779724934/SEATS_IN_THE_HOUSE.jpg

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/592767112557232149/711823806334763088/unknown.png?width=1041&height=595

ACT is on 1.8% in this poll.

Labour have to be very, very strongly favoured to win the upcoming election now. It's very well deserved too, the government's response to Covid-19 has been excellent (another day of 0 new cases today and life is almost normal again) and Jacinda Ardern generally has been a great leader overall. 

jacinda SLAMS simon into a CONCRETE PILLAR

[EastAnglianLefty]

What would the FPTP seats look like if that was the result?

[Pericles]

What would the FPTP seats look like if that was the result?

Well that is a 25.9% margin, so 33.5% change in the margin from the 2017 election result. In the 2017 election, there were 7 electorates (out of 71) in which National led Labour by a greater margin in the party vote. Epsom would also be retained by ACT, or more likely under FPP National would win it. So that's 8 seats out of 71. Note that Simon Bridges' electorate is not one of those 8. If we keep the seat count at 120, under FPP that share of seats comes to 13-14 seats in parliament, with Labour taking the rest. This is making a lot of assumptions of course, and the electorate boundaries have been changed a bit anyway for this election.

I don't think that such a margin is realistic. However, before coronavirus the most likely outcome was another Labour-NZ First-Green government, with a National-led government looking possible based on the polls (though Bridges was always outmatched by Jacinda). Now a Labour majority government has to be a real possibility (this has never happened under MMP). I expect a 'wasted vote' of 3-4% this time so around 48% of the vote would probably be enough for a majority. A Labour-Greens government is more viable too, though I am worried the Greens will have their vote cannibalized by Labour and so fall under the 5% threshold. National and ACT are about 16% behind where they need to be to form a government, so it doesn't seem particularly plausible to me that they'd make up the whole gap by September 19.

[Former President tack50]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yeah, that's true of most governments during this crisis.

And tbh I expect Ardern will be pretty cautious regardless.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

That’s impressive. I’m assuming that (barring a star Maori Party candidate) Labour will sweep the Maori electorates too. I’m hoping that the Greens stay above the threshold.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

Why? There's very little comparison between May and Ardern. The latter is a super effective and popular leader... things Theresa May was never really known for.

[Oryxslayer]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

Why? There's very little comparison between May and Ardern. The latter is a super effective and popular leader... things Theresa May was never really known for.

I men this is the literal definition of counting chickens before they roost. I would love it if Jacida would get a majority, but it is the golden rule that polls are snapshots in time. The most common fallacy in politics is believing that polls on day x will be the polls on election day.

[mileslunn]

I think poll #'s will tighten but unless Ardern does something really stupid, 25 point gap seems too large, but wouldn't be surprised if Labour only wins by 5-10 points.  Would be shocked if National got under 35% and even getting under 40% is pretty bad for them, but may happen.  Also lets remember I believe at this point in 2017, Labour was almost as far back, but they dumped Little and replaced with Ardern so any chance National dumps Bridges, who is a huge liability for party, and replaces with another leader which I would think would help.

[Pericles]

I think poll #'s will tighten but unless Ardern does something really stupid, 25 point gap seems too large, but wouldn't be surprised if Labour only wins by 5-10 points.  Would be shocked if National got under 35% and even getting under 40% is pretty bad for them, but may happen.  Also lets remember I believe at this point in 2017, Labour was almost as far back, but they dumped Little and replaced with Ardern so any chance National dumps Bridges, who is a huge liability for party, and replaces with another leader which I would think would help.

That's pretty reasonable. In this poll, once you add in guaranteed support partners to each side, it is 62.0% for Labour and the Greens (they got 43.2% last time) and 32.4% for National and ACT (they got 44.9% last time). If you add in NZ First to that it's 64.7% for the governing parties (up 14.3% from 50.4% last time). Of course NZ First is below the threshold in this poll, so the Labour/Green vs National/ACT gap is the one to watch and that's just under 30 points. It is possible the Greens fall under the threshold if Labour cannibalizes too much of the left-wing vote. If Labour did end up with a 5 point lead over National that would still be a 12 point shift in the margin from 2017 and likely mean that with the Greens they're up by more like 10 points.

On one hand National are lucky that they have very little competition for the right-wing vote, so a nightmare scenario like 2014 for Labour (25.1%) or 2002 for National (20.9%) is less likely. However overall it's still a weakness as it makes it harder for them to actually form a government, as of course they painfully found out in 2017.

[EastAnglianLefty]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

One significant difference there (also relevant to the parallel discussion on the Canada thread) is that Theresa May was a new leader and functioned in many ways as a blank slate for people to reflect their desires for a leader on to. A lot of the backlash was people realising how different May actually was from the figure they'd imagined.

In contrast, both Ardern and Trudeau are known quantities who have been in power for a number of years and whose public images are well established. There could definitely be a shift in polling numbers, but it's unlikely it would be to an analogous extent.

[CumbrianLefty]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

Why? There's very little comparison between May and Ardern. The latter is a super effective and popular leader... things Theresa May was never really known for.

Arguably another example of how history gets rewritten - just before her fateful decision to call a snap election, May had some of the best approval ratings recorded by any PM in recent years.

[Pericles]

The leadership challenge to Simon Bridges seems to be finally here.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/121566701/simon-bridges-faces-challenge-to-his-leadership-from-mps-todd-muller-and-nikki-kaye--source

Despite Bridges' claims, it appears he does not currently have a majority in his caucus, but nor does any single challenger (Todd Muller, Judith Collins and Mark Mitchell being the current names considered).

The Colmar Brunton poll expected tomorrow will be interesting. I kind of hope it has National at like 36% to suck some momentum from the challenge. None of them come close to matching Jacinda, but the others would probably do a little better than Bridges.

The confidence vote is next Tuesday, so that'll be a fun day to watch.

[brucejoel99]

The leadership challenge to Simon Bridges seems to be finally here.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/121566701/simon-bridges-faces-challenge-to-his-leadership-from-mps-todd-muller-and-nikki-kaye--source

Despite Bridges' claims, it appears he does not currently have a majority in his caucus, but nor does any single challenger (Todd Muller, Judith Collins and Mark Mitchell being the current names considered).

The Colmar Brunton poll expected tomorrow will be interesting. I kind of hope it has National at like 36% to suck some momentum from the challenge. None of them come close to matching Jacinda, but the others would probably do a little better than Bridges.

The confidence vote is next Tuesday, so that'll be a fun day to watch.

After having watched Labour undermine their leaders for years, this has become quite entertaining.

[Pericles]

The leadership challenge to Simon Bridges seems to be finally here.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/121566701/simon-bridges-faces-challenge-to-his-leadership-from-mps-todd-muller-and-nikki-kaye--source

Despite Bridges' claims, it appears he does not currently have a majority in his caucus, but nor does any single challenger (Todd Muller, Judith Collins and Mark Mitchell being the current names considered).

The Colmar Brunton poll expected tomorrow will be interesting. I kind of hope it has National at like 36% to suck some momentum from the challenge. None of them come close to matching Jacinda, but the others would probably do a little better than Bridges.

The confidence vote is next Tuesday, so that'll be a fun day to watch.

After having watched Labour undermine their leaders for years, this has become quite entertaining.

This was a National MP's actual reply to a constituent's email.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I’m honestly torn on this one. Do I want to see Simple Simon get humiliated now or in September? I’m not sure that Simon is the problem here tbh. Sure, he’s not that great, but Covid has really thrown it to Jacinda at this point. I’m not sure anyone who replaces Bridges would do measurably better.

If National replaces Bridges and still lost (with low 30s in the party vote), would they get another leader, or would Bridges’s replacement stay for the next three years?

[Pericles]

It turns out we don't even have to wait until next Tuesday, the leadership vote is on Friday.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300016914/national-caucus-will-meet-on-friday-to-decide-simon-bridges-fate?rm=a

This seems like a smart move on Bridges' part to stop the challenge getting too much momentum.

Todd Muller has also publicly confirmed that he is challenging Bridges, saying in an email to the National caucus that "It is essential that National wins this election" and "I share the view of the majority of my colleagues that this is not possible under the current leadership." (The article is already out of date on this).

[brucejoel99]

I’m honestly torn on this one. Do I want to see Simple Simon get humiliated now or in September? I’m not sure that Simon is the problem here tbh. Sure, he’s not that great, but Covid has really thrown it to Jacinda at this point. I’m not sure anyone who replaces Bridges would do measurably better.

If National replaces Bridges and still lost (with low 30s in the party vote), would they get another leader, or would Bridges’s replacement stay for the next three years?

All they need is somebody who can be somewhat likable: not a superstar or anything, but just a reliable person. Their policies can then be expressed properly, & they can look at a mid-high 30's result. Whoever that person is, if they can drag polling back up to the high 30's, then they would've earned the right to keep the job through to 2023; if not, then it's Christopher Luxon's for the taking come September (with the leader he'd be replacing ending up as a core cabinet member in their next government).

It turns out we don't even have to wait until next Tuesday, the leadership vote is on Friday.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300016914/national-caucus-will-meet-on-friday-to-decide-simon-bridges-fate?rm=a

This seems like a smart move on Bridges' part to stop the challenge getting too much momentum.

Todd Muller has also publicly confirmed that he is challenging Bridges, saying in an email to the National caucus that "It is essential that National wins this election" and "I share the view of the majority of my colleagues that this is not possible under the current leadership." (The article is already out of date on this).

Dear National caucus: Simon Bridges is New Zealand's best hope for its post-election future. Please don't screw this up!

(Yes, this is a "don't get rid of him because it's great for Labour" sh*tpost.)

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/1newsnz/status/1263349120355282944?s=21

https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1263349306968248320

holy sh[inks].


Bye Simon!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

New Poll from Colman Brunton and 1 News

Labour Party - 59% (up 18 percentage points)
National Party - 29% (down 17 percentage points)
Green Party - 4.7%
New Zealand First - 2.9%
ACT - 2.2%
Māori Party - 1.2%
Don’t Know/Refused - 16%

This translates to 79 seats for Labour, 38 for National, and 3 for ACT.

Lots of undecideds, I’d imagine that the Greens could pull enough to hit the threshold.

This is National’s worst polling since 2003.

[brucejoel99]

This result would literally be more seats for Labour than their entire party list last election.

Full credit to the NZ National Party for providing everybody with free entertainment in these dark times.

[Pericles]

This makes it even more brutal.

Preferred PM
- Jacinda Ardern: 63% (up 21%)
- Simon Bridges: 5% (down 6%)
- Judith Collins: 3% (steady)
- Winston Peters: 1% (down 2%)

Approval ratings
Jacinda Ardern +76
Simon Bridges -40

[Sestak]

This makes it even more brutal.

Preferred PM
- Jacinda Ardern: 63% (up 21%)
- Simon Bridges: 5% (down 6%)
- Judith Collins: 3% (steady)
- Winston Peters: 1% (down 2%)

Approval ratings
Jacinda Ardern +76
Simon Bridges -40

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

ThErEsA mAy

[Sestak]

Apparently on the same 1 News broadcast where this poll was released, rumors were discussed about Mark Mitchell MP trying to throw his hat into the ring last moment à la Scott Morrison.