2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Pericles]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

Oh yeah, that basically confirms my instinct that this race is overrated and NZ First won't be saved by an electorate if they get below 5%. Also interesting were the party vote numbers, 41% Labour-38% National (it was 46% National-30% Labour in 2017). On a uniform swing that implies 48% Labour nationwide to 36% National. I'm not sure whether the swing to Labour would be higher or lower than nationwide in this relatively rural conservative electorate. It's probably lower given that if these uniform swing numbers were in a nationwide poll, it would be considered a good poll for National.

I wonder if part of the good numbers for National are from folks who had been NZ First voters. NZ First did almost twice as well in Northland as their nationwide average.

Speaking of NZ First, I think even WINston would have troubles winning the electorate with 2% in the national party vote.

He lost it last election when NZ First was getting 7% of the vote and he was the incumbent MP (after a fluke by-election win).

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the changes on that poll compared with the last election?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What are the changes on that poll compared with the last election?

Matt King gained 7.7% from 2017
Willow-Jean Prime gained 9.4% from 2017
Shane Jones declined by 19.8% compared to Winston Peters in 2017

The minor parties are insignificant, but can be found here.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

[Pericles]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

That's interesting, I knew Asians were pro-National but I didn't realise how big National's margin was. Though it depends a bit on when their 2017 poll was taken, if it was before Jacinda becoming leader then it's much less useful and seems like a very weird poll.

[mileslunn]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

That's interesting, I knew Asians were pro-National but I didn't realise how big National's margin was. Though it depends a bit on when their 2017 poll was taken, if it was before Jacinda becoming leader then it's much less useful and seems like a very weird poll.

Still overall I think National does better amongst whites than non-whites.  Within Asian community, I believe Chinese vote heavily National, but Indian community goes heavily Labour so sort of cancel each other out.  Maori and Pacific Islanders however go heavily Labour.  Still amongst whites I believe a huge age divide.  If not mistaken, I believe National got over 60% of senior's vote in 2017 while amongst millennials, Labour won big and National even when they were in 40s were in 20s amongst millennials.  That is a common trend in English speaking world where millennials are quite left wing but seniors swinging right to counter this.

[Pericles]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

That's interesting, I knew Asians were pro-National but I didn't realise how big National's margin was. Though it depends a bit on when their 2017 poll was taken, if it was before Jacinda becoming leader then it's much less useful and seems like a very weird poll.

Still overall I think National does better amongst whites than non-whites.  Within Asian community, I believe Chinese vote heavily National, but Indian community goes heavily Labour so sort of cancel each other out.  Maori and Pacific Islanders however go heavily Labour.  Still amongst whites I believe a huge age divide.  If not mistaken, I believe National got over 60% of senior's vote in 2017 while amongst millennials, Labour won big and National even when they were in 40s were in 20s amongst millennials.  That is a common trend in English speaking world where millennials are quite left wing but seniors swinging right to counter this.

Unfortunately we don't have exit polls so it's hard to know the exact demographic patterns, and the late shift in the 2017 campaign complicates this further. That said, you're probably right about there being an age divide. Maori and Pacific Islanders are very strong demographics for Labour (this article has some information about that in the 2017 election). On the party vote level, Labour's support has been pretty weak in most electorates for the last few elections, even 2017 was still only 37% and 7 points behind National. It will be very interesting to see where Labour's gains end up coming from, especially if Labour does end up getting an outright majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those figures for Chinese voters are interesting to compare with what's known in Britain, where the proportion voting for the conservative party of record is even higher but the overall number voting is a lot lower.

[Pericles]

An interesting feature of the 2017 election was that while National's overall party vote decreased, I think in electorates where there were high Asian populations National's vote held steady or even increased. That may have been a backlash to Labour's promise to reduce immigration.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Latest Roy Morgan numbers:

Labour loses support to the Greens and would fall just short of a majority, while National remains below 30% in spite of a small improvement.

[Pericles]

Very weird poll. Even if the latest Covid-19 cluster has cost Labour support, I doubt the Greens are the main beneficiaries. In any case, the Greens have been hit by a recent controversy over their ministers giving $12 million in taxpayer funding to a 'green' private school, which has been seen as hypocritical.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though there *may* be an element of some left leaning voters thinking it is now "safe" to vote Green, given the continuing large Labour lead?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Don’t the Greens usually do quite well in Roy Morgan polls?

It’s hilarious to see ACT above the 5% threshold.

[skbl17]

A private corporate poll from UMR (before Labour's recent tax announcement) has Labour on 53%. I know UMR does Labour's internal polling, but the way the Stuff article is worded makes it seem that this isn't a Labour internal.

https://twitter.com/henrycooke/status/1303478958386601985
Plugging the numbers into the Electoral Commission's MMP calculator gives me the following numbers:

- LAB: 72
- NAT: 40
- ACT: 8
- GRN: 0
- NZF: 0

[brucejoel99]

A private corporate poll from UMR (before Labour's recent tax announcement) has Labour on 53%. I know UMR does Labour's internal polling, but the way the Stuff article is worded makes it seem that this isn't a Labour internal.

https://twitter.com/henrycooke/status/1303478958386601985

Plugging the numbers into the Electoral Commission's MMP calculator gives me the following numbers:

- LAB: 72
- NAT: 40
- ACT: 8
- GRN: 0
- NZF: 0

That seems like a significant loss for the Greens, compared to the 6%-8% some recent polls have had them at. Hopefully they can get to 5% on the back of the referendum (or - alternatively - winning Auckland Central, for which some polling would be really cool right about now).

In any event, the obvious trend thus far is Labour governing alone, National ending up under 30%, & NZ First being kicked out of Parliament. That really hasn't changed since the lockdown.

[Pericles]

Yes, the Greens are in a vulnerable position and Shaw was hit hard by the green school scandal. Hopefully they manage to make it back in though.

Labour announced their tax policy yesterday. The current top marginal tax rate is 33% for every dollar above $70,000, Labour will raise that to 39% for every dollar above $180,000. They have ruled out any further tax changes. They seem to have handled it well by emphasising how it only affects 2% of taxpayers, and this seems like a good balance to strike politically (policy-wise, they probably should be doing more).

[warandwar]

If NZF are really at 4% now , have to think theyd have a good shot at staying in Parliament, given how they usually trend during a campaign.

[Pericles]

If NZF are really at 4% now , have to think theyd have a good shot at staying in Parliament, given how they usually trend during a campaign.

Yes, though I think the internal pollsters have put NZ First higher than the public polls. Their standing has flat-lined in recent months and the general impression seems to be that time's up for Winston. Maybe he will manage to pull off a comeback again though.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The delay may prove to be fortuitous for the Greens if people forget about the school scandal by mid-October rather than the Saturday after next.

[Pericles]

The delay may prove to be fortuitous for the Greens if people forget about the school scandal by mid-October rather than the Saturday after next.

Yes, ironic given they opposed the delay. And it probably wasn't Winston and Judith's intention to save the Green Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

The delay may prove to be fortuitous for the Greens if people forget about the school scandal by mid-October rather than the Saturday after next.

Sorry, but what is this?

[Estrella]

The delay may prove to be fortuitous for the Greens if people forget about the school scandal by mid-October rather than the Saturday after next.

Sorry, but what is this?

Political Roundup: The Greens' private school funding scandal

[njwes]

Am I remembering right that New Zealand First hasn't contested the Maori seats since the late 90s?

[Pericles]

By the way, there have been two recent polls for the cannabis referendum. The first, by Research New Zealand, showed the No side leading with 46% to 39% for Yes (a shift from their previous poll which had Yes up 43%-39%). A Horizon Research poll has it tied 49.5%-49.5% (link). Unfortunately, New Zealanders seem weirdly authoritarian on this issue, and public concern about mental health is reducing support for legalisation (while the nuanced and sensible argument that legalisation is the best way to reduce harm is struggling to get through to people). At least October 17 will have some suspense.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, given how infinitesimally small the COVID numbers are in New Zealand, it seemed pretty ridiculous to postpone the election, but I guess it won't change very much in the end. I'm looking forward to this!