Would another Republican have won Orange County in 2016?

[Tekken_Guy]

Would another Republican have won Orange County, CA in 2016, or would it have voted Democratic regardless of the nominee?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Definitely yes, and if Kasich was the nominee he wins it by double digits

[Sumner 1868]

I don't know, but enough of this KASICH IS UNBEATABLE talking point.

[538Electoral]

Probably.

[Roll Roons]

Kasich, Rubio or Jeb! would have definitely won it. With Cruz, Paul, Carson or Christie it would be close, but I think they'd all take it in the end. Frankly it's hard of think of a Republican who was a worse fit for Orange County than Trump, unless Steve King or Roy Moore somehow became the Republican nominee.

[Politics Fan]

Kasich, Rubio or Jeb! would have definitely won it. With Cruz, Paul, Carson or Christie it would be close, but I think they'd all take it in the end. Frankly it's hard of think of a Republican who was a worse fit for Orange County than Trump, unless Steve King or Roy Moore somehow became the Republican nominee.

Democrat’s won the county in every state race against the GOP in 2018 so it’s not like it’s just reverted back to backing Republicans. I know the President plays a role in down ballot races but it’s still hard to say OC voting for Hillary was an anomaly. I think it’s possible Jeb along with Rubio and likely Kasich win it in 2016 but I’m not convinced the others would have.

[Cyrusman]

In general what of Republicans does Orange County like?
Why is Trump specifically such a bad fit for Orange County?

[Skill and Chance]

Kasich/Jeb/Christie would win it, but Cruz would lose it almost as badly as Trump.  I could see it going either way with Rubio depending on how the campaign played out.  The other GOP candidates would lose it, but more narrowly than Trump lost it.

If Bernie was the 2016 Dem nominee against Trump, he probably wins it by <2% like Newsom 2018. 

[slothdem]

Of course not. The changes in Orange County cannot entirely be explained by Trump - the voters are just different. The rust belt would have swung right and OC would have swung left in 2016 regardless of who was on the ballot - Trump just accelerated the change.

The fact that a former mayor of San Francisco carried the county against an OC-based business executive in gubernatorial race, which would have been considered absolutely unthinkable ten years earlier - is really all the evidence you need.