Canadian by-elections, 2020

[DC Al Fine]

By elections have been called for March 10th in Cape Breton Centre and Truro-Bible Hill

On those, Cape Breton Centre should be an NDP-Liberal fight.  Truro-Bible Hill interesting as it went NDP, but partly due to popular MLA who is now a federal Liberal (in fact it was strong showing in Truro portion that put her over the top, Tories won most polls in Colchester County portion), but my guess is the PCs pick it up, but possible it goes Liberal.  Local candidates tend to matter more in Atlantic Canada than elsewhere.

Cape Breton Centre will be interesting. Liberals are running Dave Wilton who won in 2013 but lost in 2017. The NDP are running Cape Breton councilor Kendra Coombes, whose district covers most of the riding. NDP probably retain it.

None of the Truro candidates seem that prominent. The Tory candidate's grandfather was a one term MLA in the 70's, but that doesn't mean much. I'm guessing a Tory gain off local history but I really have no idea.

[DC Al Fine]

CBC had an interesting analysis this morning about the by-elections.

Liberal MLA for Chester-St.Margaret's, Hugh MacKay quit caucus last week because of a second DUI charge in office. That means that if the Liberals lose both by-elections, they technically won't have a working majority in the House (although MacKay would almost certainly vote to keep the government alive).

What's more plausible is that the Liberals could lose the by-elections, AND an unexpected retirement or death makes them lose their majority.

[DC Al Fine]

We're going to be hit by a massive snowstorm overnight. City officials are telling people to stay home tomorrow if they can. Turnout is going to be super low.

Anyway, I haven't heard much about the campaigns either (and I'm in Ottawa!), but I did have a talk with my co-worker today who lives in Orleans. He tells me there's a big movement of opposition to Stephen Blais, the Liberal candidate due to the disaster of Ottawa's new light rail deployment. Blais was the chair of the city's transit committee, and a lot of people in Orleans rely on the light rail to get to work. My co-worker seems to think this will help the NDP, but it being Orleans, I have my reservations.

As for Ottawa-Vanier, judging by the lack of a campaign, I'd say it will be an easy Liberal win. I've said this many times, if the NDP really tried, they could win it (it's a left wing area, very good demos for the party), but people think it's a super safe Liberal seat so they won't try. I do briefly cross through the riding during my commute, andI can only see NDP and Libertarian signs (lol), but that's only along the fence on a bike path.

If this was a GE someone would be posting on Election Prediction Project about a Libertarian surprise win

[DC Al Fine]

NS by-elections are today.

[DC Al Fine]

Truro was more of a Lenore Zann seat (which used to be a Tory seat), so not a bad night for the NDP, considering they lost Cape Breton Centre in the 2015 by-election. The result there was nearly identical to the general election. Good job recruiting the local councillor as their candidate.

Pretty much the same pattern we've seen since the 2009 win. NDP regressing to the mean in their non-traditional seats as their MLA's retire or are defeated, while holding up very well in their traditional urban Halifax + industrial Cape Breton base.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if the fabled Mark Carney might be brought home to run for the Liberals in YC? On the Tory side it could also be a place for Leslyn Lewis to go for a seat

As much as I'd love to get Leslyn Lewis into parliament, she'd be a pretty bad fit for the seat, like our last candidate. I'd stick her somewhere in the northern GTA or maybr Scarborough Agincourt if we limit the options to Toronto proper.

[DC Al Fine]

There has been remarkably little discussion of Peter McKay’s lack of a seat in the House of Commons. Has he been asked if he would force a Tory MP to quit and force a byelelction right away to get into Parliament? Has he made any commitment to go back to his old seat in Nova Scotia?

When Jagmeet Singh was running for the NDP leadership his lack of a seat was constantly raised and he kept having to answer questions about. Why don’t I ever see this issue come up with regard to McKay?

He has promised to run in Central Nova next election, but yeah where he will get next seat is a question, but my guess is one of the MPs in Alberta or Saskatchewan step aside for him or maybe even in rural Manitoba or Bob Zimmer in Northeast BC.  While Rural Ontario is generally fairly safe, probably wants to avoid a repeat of what happened to John Tory in 2009.

That might explain why Sean Fraser is considering a run for the  NS Liberal leadership...

[DC Al Fine]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

I think as long as Liberals are ahead of NDP, they should easily hold this.  Only flips if NDP pulls ahead of Liberals which I don't see happening anytime soon.

Even if the NDP can't pull ahead of the Libs *nationally*, they can pull ahead in spot situations like a byelection--think of Dan Heap in Spadina in 1981.  In any event, with the excision of Rosedale in the last redistribution, the NDP is now pretty solidly entrenched as the primary nominal opposition to the Libs in TC--and that psychology (plus provincial coattails from Suze Morrison) can mean a lot.

Though there is a twist; TC is where reported federal Green leadership frontrunner Annamie Paul ran in 2019 (and where *another* Green contender for power, Glen Murray, previously sat as Liberal MPP).

Given Canada's propensity for wild swings even in general elections,  there are very few seats I would call safe in a by-election. If the Tories can nearly lose Brandon-Souris in a by-election after winning it by 40%, the NDP picking off Toronto Centre isn't that much of a stretch, to say nothing of the Tories making up a measly 14 point deficit in York Centre.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd also throw out there, that there's a non-negligible chance that we'll be going to the polls before the six months is up, at which point, the whole discussion is moot.

There will be a new Speech From the Throne/confidence vote when Parliament reconvenes, and there are rumours that Trudeau might use the reset and need for a plan for recovery to introduce an electioneering budget and ask for a new mandate.

[DC Al Fine]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

You've hear rumours of a PEI election?

[DC Al Fine]

(2) I think a lot of people were anticipating more of a 2019-style result for the Cons in YC than the 2015-style result which happened--indication there's still life either in the old Jewish Conservative dogwhistle or Doug Ford's "pandemic honeymoon" (with an assist from federal GTA leadership)

I suspect a big chunk of that result is Tory voters being more motivated to vote given the circumstances as well.

[DC Al Fine]

(2) I think a lot of people were anticipating more of a 2019-style result for the Cons in YC than the 2015-style result which happened--indication there's still life either in the old Jewish Conservative dogwhistle or Doug Ford's "pandemic honeymoon" (with an assist from federal GTA leadership)

I suspect a big chunk of that result is Tory voters being more motivated to vote given the circumstances as well.

And also, a candidate that made *some* sense relative to riding demos, unlike 2019.

Wait, I thought we ran socons both times?

[DC Al Fine]

To state the obvious, that is quite a swing. Bigger than expected?

Yes, but keep in mind, this is PEI where there are only 3-4000 voters on the roll in each district. It's closer to a council election in some small town, than a normal partisan election.