Canadian by-elections, 2020

[Krago]

Two Ottawa Byelections to be held Feb. 27

Orleans and Ottawa--Vanier provincial electoral districts.

[mileslunn]

Ottawa-Vanier probably one of the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario so easy Liberal hold.  Orleans was a decade ago a bellwether but at both federal and provincial has trended solidly Liberal.  Considering how much Tories have fallen since election, if they couldn't win it in 2018, no way they do now.

[adma]

Ottawa-Vanier probably one of the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario so easy Liberal hold.  Orleans was a decade ago a bellwether but at both federal and provincial has trended solidly Liberal.  Considering how much Tories have fallen since election, if they couldn't win it in 2018, no way they do now.

Actually, that "belwetherness" for Orleans was borderline and momentary--if anything, its present Lib-dominant status (provincially and federally) is a return to hereditary form for what's always been, on Franco-Ontarian grounds, inherently a party stronghold.  It's just that the PCs won it for a term in 1999, and kept on offering competitive bids on those fumes forever after, but never quite making it.

And even federally, the Conservatives' Royal Galipeau never managed much more than a 6-point margin, not even vs the Iggy disaster in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP was doing a better job as opposition, they could probably make Ottawa-Vanier competitive. Remember in the 2011 federal election, the NDP came within 10 points of picking the seat up. They would've done better in the provincial election if they had a Francophone candidate (and also maybe Lyra Evans wasn't electable? - the fact she's now a school trustee notwithstanding).

The thing with Ottawa-Vanier is it includes Sandy Hill and Lower Town, which are arguably Ottawa's most left wing neighbourhoods. That doesn't mean they're overwhelmingly NDP though, but their progressive slants show up in municipal elections. And another part of the riding, (Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward) is represented by an NDP-supported city councillor. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Additionally, there are some municipal by-elections coming up:

*Feb 24: Barrie, ON (Ward 3) [caused by Doug Shipley's election as MP for Barrie]
*Mar 15: Montreal, QC (Saint-Léonard-Est ) [caused by Patricia Lattanzio's election as MP for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel]
*Mar 23: Cambridge, ON (Ward 7) [caused by death of Frank Monteiro]
*Apr 4: Victoria, BC (at-large) [caused by Laurel Collins' election as MP for Victoria]
*Apr 27: Windsor, ON (Ward 7) [caused by Irek Kusmierczyk's election as MP for Windsor—Tecumseh]

[lilTommy]

If the NDP was doing a better job as opposition, they could probably make Ottawa-Vanier competitive. Remember in the 2011 federal election, the NDP came within 10 points of picking the seat up. They would've done better in the provincial election if they had a Francophone candidate (and also maybe Lyra Evans wasn't electable? - the fact she's now a school trustee notwithstanding).

The thing with Ottawa-Vanier is it includes Sandy Hill and Lower Town, which are arguably Ottawa's most left wing neighbourhoods. That doesn't mean they're overwhelmingly NDP though, but their progressive slants show up in municipal elections. And another part of the riding, (Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward) is represented by an NDP-supported city councillor. 

The ONDP nominated a young francophone woman this time, and during the 2019 FED they had (I feel) a very strong young francophone as well. And the NDP gained some ground over 2015, 2 points, but still at an election where the NDP lost votes and seats, that's a good result

Myriam Djilane for the NDP, while the Liberals have a strong candidate in Lucille Collard a School Trustee and French board chair. At least on paper she's strong.
I'm wondering where the PC vote is going, the 21% or so, I can't see the PCs gaining anything more, would that be their base? they lost votes in 2018.
Both strong OLP seats, but they are fighting for both. I suspect the NDP will concentrate more in Vanier, while the PCs will push harder in Orleans.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP was doing a better job as opposition, they could probably make Ottawa-Vanier competitive. Remember in the 2011 federal election, the NDP came within 10 points of picking the seat up. They would've done better in the provincial election if they had a Francophone candidate (and also maybe Lyra Evans wasn't electable? - the fact she's now a school trustee notwithstanding).

The thing with Ottawa-Vanier is it includes Sandy Hill and Lower Town, which are arguably Ottawa's most left wing neighbourhoods. That doesn't mean they're overwhelmingly NDP though, but their progressive slants show up in municipal elections. And another part of the riding, (Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward) is represented by an NDP-supported city councillor. 

The ONDP nominated a young francophone woman this time, and during the 2019 FED they had (I feel) a very strong young francophone as well. And the NDP gained some ground over 2015, 2 points, but still at an election where the NDP lost votes and seats, that's a good result

Myriam Djilane for the NDP, while the Liberals have a strong candidate in Lucille Collard a School Trustee and French board chair. At least on paper she's strong.
I'm wondering where the PC vote is going, the 21% or so, I can't see the PCs gaining anything more, would that be their base? they lost votes in 2018.
Both strong OLP seats, but they are fighting for both. I suspect the NDP will concentrate more in Vanier, while the PCs will push harder in Orleans.

The NDP did fairly well in Ottawa in the federal election and provincial election (comparatively), while the Tories did comparatively terrible (because Ottawa is a terrible fit for Ford). I don't think conservatives will turn out to vote in Vanier. They'll either vote Liberal to stop the NDP or NDP to stop the Liberals. It will be a straight NDP-Liberal fight.  Having said everything I did already, I do expect the Liberals to win comfortably, because I don't think the NDP is going to try very hard to win it. (I hope I'm wrong though - I already saw NDP signs up yesterday in Sandy Hill!)

[mileslunn]

By elections have been called for March 10th in Cape Breton Centre and Truro-Bible Hill

On those, Cape Breton Centre should be an NDP-Liberal fight.  Truro-Bible Hill interesting as it went NDP, but partly due to popular MLA who is now a federal Liberal (in fact it was strong showing in Truro portion that put her over the top, Tories won most polls in Colchester County portion), but my guess is the PCs pick it up, but possible it goes Liberal.  Local candidates tend to matter more in Atlantic Canada than elsewhere.

[DC Al Fine]

By elections have been called for March 10th in Cape Breton Centre and Truro-Bible Hill

On those, Cape Breton Centre should be an NDP-Liberal fight.  Truro-Bible Hill interesting as it went NDP, but partly due to popular MLA who is now a federal Liberal (in fact it was strong showing in Truro portion that put her over the top, Tories won most polls in Colchester County portion), but my guess is the PCs pick it up, but possible it goes Liberal.  Local candidates tend to matter more in Atlantic Canada than elsewhere.

Cape Breton Centre will be interesting. Liberals are running Dave Wilton who won in 2013 but lost in 2017. The NDP are running Cape Breton councilor Kendra Coombes, whose district covers most of the riding. NDP probably retain it.

None of the Truro candidates seem that prominent. The Tory candidate's grandfather was a one term MLA in the 70's, but that doesn't mean much. I'm guessing a Tory gain off local history but I really have no idea.

[DC Al Fine]

CBC had an interesting analysis this morning about the by-elections.

Liberal MLA for Chester-St.Margaret's, Hugh MacKay quit caucus last week because of a second DUI charge in office. That means that if the Liberals lose both by-elections, they technically won't have a working majority in the House (although MacKay would almost certainly vote to keep the government alive).

What's more plausible is that the Liberals could lose the by-elections, AND an unexpected retirement or death makes them lose their majority.

[Krago]

The results of the Barrie Ward 3 by-election looks like the Democratic race for President:

Candidate Votes %
Ann-Marie Kungl 542 29.4%
​​Tanya Saari 427 ​23.2%
​Devin Scully 308 ​16.7%
Kelly Patterson McGrath  ​234 ​12.7%
​Gerry Marshall  176 ​9.6%
​Ram Faerber  105 5.7%
Peter Silveira 31 ​1.7%
Stephen James Ciesielski 19 1.0%

[Hatman 🍁]

The results of the Barrie Ward 3 by-election looks like the Democratic race for President:

Candidate Votes %
Ann-Marie Kungl 542 29.4%
​​Tanya Saari 427 ​23.2%
​Devin Scully 308 ​16.7%
Kelly Patterson McGrath  ​234 ​12.7%
​Gerry Marshall  176 ​9.6%
​Ram Faerber  105 5.7%
Peter Silveira 31 ​1.7%
Stephen James Ciesielski 19 1.0%

She doesn't seem to be a Conservative like the previous councillor, so good news!

[DL]

The two Ottawa area byelections are tomorrow and I've seen remarkably little coverage of them. I realize most people probably think its a forgone conclusion they will stay Liberal - but nonetheless these are the first electoral tests since the Ford PCs took power. I'd be very curious to see just how badly the PCs do. Could they fall into third or even fourth place? Could the NDP make a credible showing in Ottawa-vanier? 

[mileslunn]

The two Ottawa area byelections are tomorrow and I've seen remarkably little coverage of them. I realize most people probably think its a forgone conclusion they will stay Liberal - but nonetheless these are the first electoral tests since the Ford PCs took power. I'd be very curious to see just how badly the PCs do. Could they fall into third or even fourth place? Could the NDP make a credible showing in Ottawa-vanier? 

In Ottawa-Vanier, I expect them to get clobbered.  Would be shocked if they got over 20% there.  Doubt NDP will be competitive but probably come in second place.  In Orleans should lose badly, but probably second.  As for share of popular vote, hard to say but if they cross 30% mark, then better than expected showing, below 25% a bad night so best guess is high 20s for PCs there but hard to say for sure.

[Hatman 🍁]

We're going to be hit by a massive snowstorm overnight. City officials are telling people to stay home tomorrow if they can. Turnout is going to be super low.

Anyway, I haven't heard much about the campaigns either (and I'm in Ottawa!), but I did have a talk with my co-worker today who lives in Orleans. He tells me there's a big movement of opposition to Stephen Blais, the Liberal candidate due to the disaster of Ottawa's new light rail deployment. Blais was the chair of the city's transit committee, and a lot of people in Orleans rely on the light rail to get to work. My co-worker seems to think this will help the NDP, but it being Orleans, I have my reservations.

As for Ottawa-Vanier, judging by the lack of a campaign, I'd say it will be an easy Liberal win. I've said this many times, if the NDP really tried, they could win it (it's a left wing area, very good demos for the party), but people think it's a super safe Liberal seat so they won't try. I do briefly cross through the riding during my commute, and I can only see NDP and Libertarian signs (lol), but that's only along the fence on a bike path.

[DC Al Fine]

We're going to be hit by a massive snowstorm overnight. City officials are telling people to stay home tomorrow if they can. Turnout is going to be super low.

Anyway, I haven't heard much about the campaigns either (and I'm in Ottawa!), but I did have a talk with my co-worker today who lives in Orleans. He tells me there's a big movement of opposition to Stephen Blais, the Liberal candidate due to the disaster of Ottawa's new light rail deployment. Blais was the chair of the city's transit committee, and a lot of people in Orleans rely on the light rail to get to work. My co-worker seems to think this will help the NDP, but it being Orleans, I have my reservations.

As for Ottawa-Vanier, judging by the lack of a campaign, I'd say it will be an easy Liberal win. I've said this many times, if the NDP really tried, they could win it (it's a left wing area, very good demos for the party), but people think it's a super safe Liberal seat so they won't try. I do briefly cross through the riding during my commute, andI can only see NDP and Libertarian signs (lol), but that's only along the fence on a bike path.

If this was a GE someone would be posting on Election Prediction Project about a Libertarian surprise win

[toaster]

I suspect the PCs anti-francophone term kind of hurts the ONDP, because those voters will probably go to the Liberals (or just stay home).  Curious to see if U of O shows up for the ONDP, it is one of the most left-wing campuses in Canada. 

[emcee0]

Preliminary results from Vanier:
Ottawa—Vanier (080)
Polls reporting: 4.42% (5/113)
Candidate   Votes   Margin
COLLARD, LUCILLE ()   
316
DJILANE, MYRIAM ()   495
MAYANGI, PATRICK ()   175!
KOCZWARSKI, BEN ()    178
FIALA, JULIE ()   14
LEWIS, KEN ()   7
ZNONEOFTHE, ABOVE () 10   
O'DONNELL, J. JUSTIN ()   2
100,190
1.41%

[emcee0]

Preliminary results for Orleans
BLAIS, STEPHEN (OLP)   1444

MONTGOMERY, NATALIE (PCP) 520   
PARROT, MANON (NDP)   492
WEST, ANDREW (GPO) 107   
BENNETT, KEEGAN (NAP)   8
BRISSON, JEAN-SERGE (LTN)   7
TURMEL, JOHN (PAU)   3
HUENEMOERDER, GERRIE (OAL)   1
110,519
1.58%

Looks like an easy liberal win in both ridings!

[adma]

Okay, at this point, very early in the standings: in OV, Lib well ahead, the NDP's so far solidly in second (with numbers consistent w/2018) and the PCs struggling vs Green for a distant third--though in that riding, it may depend on *where* the polling stations are coming from.

In Orleans, so far also a Lib landslide--and the Tories and NDP virtually tied for a distant second--and unlike Vanier, the polling stations tend to follow a consistent pattern there.  Ford backlash *really* taking its toll here...

[toaster]

Looks like the PCs are down by about 13% in Orleans and 11% in Vanier.  Orleans is one that they had been competitive in, but obviously did not win.  So while this shows the PC vote down, they didn't need either seat to win their majority.  Will be interesting to see a byelection in a riding they won.  Who will be the first PC to take a Government or private appointment (seeing the writing on the wall come election time), to force a by election?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. Hate to see Stephen Blais get rewarded with an easy win. Hopefully his replacement on council will be better, and not another Watson hack.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts are:

Liberals: Great night won both solidly so while a lot can happen between now and next election at least looks promising.

NDP: Did okay as weren't realistically going to win either seat, but at least didn't implode as badly as some feared.

PCs: Disastrous night.  Were never going to win either, but their share of the popular vote was worst than they got federally and in fact I believe worst showing in those two since at least 1990 or 1987 and both those elections were disastrous for PCs.  So they have a long road ahead if they want to win in 2022, which I am not sure if they can, at least not with Doug Ford as leader.

[adma]

My thoughts are:

Liberals: Great night won both solidly so while a lot can happen between now and next election at least looks promising.

NDP: Did okay as weren't realistically going to win either seat, but at least didn't implode as badly as some feared.

PCs: Disastrous night.  Were never going to win either, but their share of the popular vote was worst than they got federally and in fact I believe worst showing in those two since at least 1990 or 1987 and both those elections were disastrous for PCs.  So they have a long road ahead if they want to win in 2022, which I am not sure if they can, at least not with Doug Ford as leader.

Libs in Vanier was somewhat reversion-to-mean predictable; it's interesting that they in fact did better in Orleans--something which bodes well for Del Duca as a "suburban default option" kind of Lib leader.  (Though the "Liberal ancestrality" of Vanier has in fact been subtly degrading for some time--or at least it isn't quite as monolithic as it was in the 80s, particularly as demographics diversify beyond the Franco-Ontarian).

NDP: lost mild ground in Vanier; but again, a bit on reversion-to-mean grounds, plus its being a non-high-priority seat allowing leakage to the Green camp (which itself has a certain latent urban-progressive base here).  But given how their recent byelection pattern in seats like Orleans (which are more genuinely "no hope" cases rather than "suppressed support" a la Vanier, i.e. in the UK the Lib Dems, not Labour, would be the nominal non-Tory option here) has been throwaway-abysmal--that is, single digits, even *low* single digits--for them to push 15% and even, it would appear, threaten or actually overtake the PCs for second in some megapolls is genuinely impressive; that is, even if they're to return to being a "third party" for any reason, Andrea Horwath's base isn't fatally imploding any time soon.  (Then again, when one examines closely, the NDP:PC ratio in Orleans wasn't *that* much different from 2018.)

PCs: disastrous indeed--that is, they shouldn't have been fighting off the NDP for second in Orleans, *and* they shouldn't have been fighting off the Greens for 3rd in Vanier.  (As for the Greens: it'd seem like Schreiner's performance--and maybe vestigial fumes from Elizabeth May's 2019 campaign--have gone some ways to validate that bottom-feeding option.)

[Hatman 🍁]

PCs did bad because Ford is loathed in Ottawa. The NDP did fairly well in Orleans because of the Blais factor probably, but opposition to him seems to have been mostly a nothingburger.

Turnout a huge factor of course. Possible a lot of anti-Liberal people stayed home because both ridings are "safe". Last night proves that weather does affect turnout.