Canadian by-elections, 2020

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP was doing a better job as opposition, they could probably make Ottawa-Vanier competitive. Remember in the 2011 federal election, the NDP came within 10 points of picking the seat up. They would've done better in the provincial election if they had a Francophone candidate (and also maybe Lyra Evans wasn't electable? - the fact she's now a school trustee notwithstanding).

The thing with Ottawa-Vanier is it includes Sandy Hill and Lower Town, which are arguably Ottawa's most left wing neighbourhoods. That doesn't mean they're overwhelmingly NDP though, but their progressive slants show up in municipal elections. And another part of the riding, (Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward) is represented by an NDP-supported city councillor. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Additionally, there are some municipal by-elections coming up:

*Feb 24: Barrie, ON (Ward 3) [caused by Doug Shipley's election as MP for Barrie]
*Mar 15: Montreal, QC (Saint-Léonard-Est ) [caused by Patricia Lattanzio's election as MP for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel]
*Mar 23: Cambridge, ON (Ward 7) [caused by death of Frank Monteiro]
*Apr 4: Victoria, BC (at-large) [caused by Laurel Collins' election as MP for Victoria]
*Apr 27: Windsor, ON (Ward 7) [caused by Irek Kusmierczyk's election as MP for Windsor—Tecumseh]

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP was doing a better job as opposition, they could probably make Ottawa-Vanier competitive. Remember in the 2011 federal election, the NDP came within 10 points of picking the seat up. They would've done better in the provincial election if they had a Francophone candidate (and also maybe Lyra Evans wasn't electable? - the fact she's now a school trustee notwithstanding).

The thing with Ottawa-Vanier is it includes Sandy Hill and Lower Town, which are arguably Ottawa's most left wing neighbourhoods. That doesn't mean they're overwhelmingly NDP though, but their progressive slants show up in municipal elections. And another part of the riding, (Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward) is represented by an NDP-supported city councillor. 

The ONDP nominated a young francophone woman this time, and during the 2019 FED they had (I feel) a very strong young francophone as well. And the NDP gained some ground over 2015, 2 points, but still at an election where the NDP lost votes and seats, that's a good result

Myriam Djilane for the NDP, while the Liberals have a strong candidate in Lucille Collard a School Trustee and French board chair. At least on paper she's strong.
I'm wondering where the PC vote is going, the 21% or so, I can't see the PCs gaining anything more, would that be their base? they lost votes in 2018.
Both strong OLP seats, but they are fighting for both. I suspect the NDP will concentrate more in Vanier, while the PCs will push harder in Orleans.

The NDP did fairly well in Ottawa in the federal election and provincial election (comparatively), while the Tories did comparatively terrible (because Ottawa is a terrible fit for Ford). I don't think conservatives will turn out to vote in Vanier. They'll either vote Liberal to stop the NDP or NDP to stop the Liberals. It will be a straight NDP-Liberal fight.  Having said everything I did already, I do expect the Liberals to win comfortably, because I don't think the NDP is going to try very hard to win it. (I hope I'm wrong though - I already saw NDP signs up yesterday in Sandy Hill!)

[Hatman 🍁]

The results of the Barrie Ward 3 by-election looks like the Democratic race for President:

Candidate Votes %
Ann-Marie Kungl 542 29.4%
​​Tanya Saari 427 ​23.2%
​Devin Scully 308 ​16.7%
Kelly Patterson McGrath  ​234 ​12.7%
​Gerry Marshall  176 ​9.6%
​Ram Faerber  105 5.7%
Peter Silveira 31 ​1.7%
Stephen James Ciesielski 19 1.0%

She doesn't seem to be a Conservative like the previous councillor, so good news!

[Hatman 🍁]

We're going to be hit by a massive snowstorm overnight. City officials are telling people to stay home tomorrow if they can. Turnout is going to be super low.

Anyway, I haven't heard much about the campaigns either (and I'm in Ottawa!), but I did have a talk with my co-worker today who lives in Orleans. He tells me there's a big movement of opposition to Stephen Blais, the Liberal candidate due to the disaster of Ottawa's new light rail deployment. Blais was the chair of the city's transit committee, and a lot of people in Orleans rely on the light rail to get to work. My co-worker seems to think this will help the NDP, but it being Orleans, I have my reservations.

As for Ottawa-Vanier, judging by the lack of a campaign, I'd say it will be an easy Liberal win. I've said this many times, if the NDP really tried, they could win it (it's a left wing area, very good demos for the party), but people think it's a super safe Liberal seat so they won't try. I do briefly cross through the riding during my commute, and I can only see NDP and Libertarian signs (lol), but that's only along the fence on a bike path.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. Hate to see Stephen Blais get rewarded with an easy win. Hopefully his replacement on council will be better, and not another Watson hack.

[Hatman 🍁]

PCs did bad because Ford is loathed in Ottawa. The NDP did fairly well in Orleans because of the Blais factor probably, but opposition to him seems to have been mostly a nothingburger.

Turnout a huge factor of course. Possible a lot of anti-Liberal people stayed home because both ridings are "safe". Last night proves that weather does affect turnout. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Truro was more of a Lenore Zann seat (which used to be a Tory seat), so not a bad night for the NDP, considering they lost Cape Breton Centre in the 2015 by-election. The result there was nearly identical to the general election. Good job recruiting the local councillor as their candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tomorrow's municipal by-election in Montreal has been cancelled.

[Hatman 🍁]

the by-elections in NB (as well as the NB municipal elections) have been postponed

[Hatman 🍁]

The Cumberland by-election on Ottawa City Council has been scheduled for October 5. It was vacated when Stephen Blais ran successfully for a seat at Queen's Park.

This is the first local by-election that I'm aware of in Canada since the pandemic started.

[Hatman 🍁]

There were some territorial by-elections scheduled for Friday in Nunavut, but they didn't go ahead because the candidates in both ridings were acclaimed. Nunavut has yet to have any confirmed COVID cases. There will be a mayoral by-election in Pangnirtung on August 24, so that might be the first post corona electoral event in Canada?

[Hatman 🍁]

York Centre is probably the most favourable to Tories of 416 seats so if the Tories are going to win any seats in 416, this would be one of the first to fall.  By same token looking at current polls, pretty sure Liberals would easily hold this at the moment.  Nonetheless if Tories want to be competitive in the GTA, this is pretty much a must win and if they cannot win here or at least come close that shows how big a trouble they are in and that problem runs much deeper than leader.

Another one is Surrey South as Tracy Redies in BC has resigned.  This is normally a safe BC Liberal seat so in normal times it would be an easy BC Liberal win.  But with Horgan having around a 15 point lead provincially, it might be closer than normal and upset while not likely is at least plausible.  Certainly if NDP does win or even comes close, that is sign they are on track for a landslide and maybe even enough that BC Liberals should consider changing leaders.

Redies' riding is actually Surrey-White Rock. I very much doubt the NDP can pick that riding up. Maybe if the Conservatives split the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh yeah, Toronto's wards have the same boundaries as the federal ridings, so you can compare municipal results too. Wong-Tam won over 50% in 2018, and defeated a well known Liberal (George Smitherman) in the process. HOWEVER, the same ward voted for John Tory over progressive challenger Jennifer Keesmaat (who was endorsed by Wong-Tam), 51%-36% in the mayoral election. The area always seems to vote for New Democrats on city council. Before 2018, Pam McConnell represented the area, and was very popular. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh yeah, Toronto's wards have the same boundaries as the federal ridings, so you can compare municipal results too. Wong-Tam won over 50% in 2018, and defeated a well known Liberal (George Smitherman) in the process. HOWEVER, the same ward voted for John Tory over progressive challenger Jennifer Keesmaat (who was endorsed by Wong-Tam), 51%-36% in the mayoral election. The area always seems to vote for New Democrats on city council. Before 2018, Pam McConnell represented the area, and was very popular. 

The base of the municipal left is the Annex and inner west end.  Hence Jennifer Keesmaat's best wards were Davenport, University-Rosedale and Parkdale-High Park, same was true for Olivia Chow. 

I'm well aware. But, the left still wins Toronto Centre in council elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

[Hatman 🍁]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

You've hear rumours of a PEI election?

Saw something on Twitter. So take it with a grain of salt.

[Hatman 🍁]

There'll be a by-election on October 6 in Humber-Gros Morne, NL due to former Premier Dwight Ball's resignation. New Premier Andrew Furey will run to get a seat in the legislature. Should be a formality.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently this gives the Greens just 2 days to get their new leader on the ballot. If it's Murray or Paul, they're going to want to run in Toronto Centre. Murray represented the riding provincially and Paul was their candidate last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose who ever wins will just plan on running in Saanich come next election.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, if Paul wins the Green leadership, this will probably become a Liberal-Green race? It might become 'nationalized' in that scenario. The Liberals would still be favoured obviously, but the Greens would probably break 30%.

[Hatman 🍁]

3 municipal by-elections tonight in Ontario.

In Ottawa's Cumberland Ward, Catherine Kitts (Liberal backed) easily wins with 54% of the vote over progressive Yvette Ashiri who won 22%. I suppose not a bad result for a progressive in Cumberland. The seat was vacated when Stephen Blais was elected to Queen's Park earlier this year in a by-election. No ideological shift (he was also a Liberal) on council; she is also a supporter of the mayor. But considering how terrible of a person Blais is, still an improvement.

In Windsor's Ward 7, Liberal Jeewen Gill wins with just 20% of the vote. The 2nd place challenger, Angelo Marignani has finished 2nd place in this ward five times in a row now. Talk about bad luck. This is the ward that current NDP MPP Percy Hatfield held until 2013, so it's sad to see no credible progressive take a shot at the seat. It was held by current Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk until he was elected to Parliament last year.

And some good news, in Cambrdige's Ward 7, New Democrat Scott Hamilton wins the seat with 32% of the vote. He was the party's candidate in Cambridge in the last federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a by-election yesterday in St. John's' Ward 2, which covers the city's more progressive east end.

Thanks to a massive vote split, former Tory cabinet minister Shawn Skinner picked up the seat, defeating activist Ophelia Ravencroft, who was the first non-binary person to run for office in Newfoundland. Another LGBT candidate, Greg Smith (and 2018 Newfoundland Brier rep) finished 4th. Had he won, he could've started a curler's caucus with Olympic gold medallist Jamie Korab who represents Ward 3.

Shawn Skinner    22.9%
Ophelia Ravencroft    17.2%
Lorne Lorder    17.0%
Greg Smith    10.8%
Carol Anne Furlong    10.5%
Matt House    8.8%
Greg Noseworthy    8.7%
Wallace Ryan    4.1%

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's the big by-election in Charlottetown-Winsloe. If the PCs win it, then they will turn their minority government into a majority.

Candidates:
Zack Bell, PC: Minor hockey coach, oil salesman
Zac Murphy, Liberal: Financial advisor
Chris van Ouwerkerk, Green: Lawyer, small business owner
Lynne Thiele, NDP: Writer, former teacher

2019 result:
Liberal: 42%
Green: 31%
PC: 26%
NDP: 1%

MLAs since 1996:
Don MacKinnon, PC (1996-2003)
Wayne Collins, PC (2003-2007)
Bush Dumville, Liberal (2007-2019)
Robert Mitchell, Liberal (2019-2020)

The PCs are enjoying a large lead in the polls, though there hasn't been any public polling since the Spring. I feel like the PCs will probably win this, but it could go to either of the three main parties.