Canadian by-elections, 2020

[King of Kensington]

I think the Israel issue has been effectively neutralized, which is the best weapon the Tories have in York Centre (plus it's a generally Liberal riding).  MacKay would be foolish to run there since there's so many better options available.  

[King of Kensington]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

It's been a safe landing spot for patrician Liberals since 1993 (Bill Graham, Bob Rae, Chrystia Freeland, Bill Morneau).

It's the kind of riding that "seems" like a natural fit given its large population of tenants, social housing residents, students etc.  It's one of the most anti-Conservative seats in the country.

If the NDP was the "hegemonic" party of low income workers, minorities and inner cities Toronto Centre would be an NDP stronghold, like the non-wealthy Inner London seats are for Labour.   But it ain't.

Rosedale is no longer in the riding, which has made the riding a better target.  Suze Morrison did extraordinarily well provincially (albeit in an OLP collapse) and it was basically tied with University-Rosedale for 4th best result in Toronto in last year's federal election.  But still a big hill to climb.

[King of Kensington]

Low income seats in Toronto-Centre are the future of the NDP, if it stays low income.

Toronto Centre has a bifurcated demographic.  Lots of condo-dwelling professionals, but less dominated by this demographic than Spadina-Fort York.  For example 56% have university degrees but 31% are low income, the highest of any Toronto riding.  71% are renters, again the highest in Toronto.

[King of Kensington]

Oh yeah, Toronto's wards have the same boundaries as the federal ridings, so you can compare municipal results too. Wong-Tam won over 50% in 2018, and defeated a well known Liberal (George Smitherman) in the process. HOWEVER, the same ward voted for John Tory over progressive challenger Jennifer Keesmaat (who was endorsed by Wong-Tam), 51%-36% in the mayoral election. The area always seems to vote for New Democrats on city council. Before 2018, Pam McConnell represented the area, and was very popular. 

The base of the municipal left is the Annex and inner west end.  Hence Jennifer Keesmaat's best wards were Davenport, University-Rosedale and Parkdale-High Park, same was true for Olivia Chow. 

[King of Kensington]

Yes, that's true.  And Tory won every single ward last time (but would have lost 3 out of 44 under the old system), as it was only a semi-competitive race.

[King of Kensington]

Don't see Kristyn Wong-Tam going federal where she has little chance of winning.  She has mayoral aspirations.

[King of Kensington]

Doesn't sound like she has much of an issue with the Liberal government:

https://twitter.com/kristynwongtam/status/1299061429140631560

[King of Kensington]

No Joe Oliver comeback?

[King of Kensington]

Marci Ien, host of CTV's The Social, will be the Liberal candidate in Toronto Centre:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/broadcast-journalist-marci-ien-to-run-as-liberal-candidate-in-morneau-s-former-riding-1.5109090?fbclid=IwAR20ENwUAgA7RIcBzg77xZOSjHNx7grp8iJgnx-DYZoAAT45iFCfIXAg1HY

[King of Kensington]

Looks like Kristyn Wong-Tam is backing Marci Ien:

https://twitter.com/MarciIen/status/1309651649477181440

[King of Kensington]

Given the Greens' electoral record, the most they probably could have hoped for in a TC-type riding was "moral victory", anyway--and if we go by 2019's poll-by-poll results (overly plumped within Old Cabbagetown/Don Vale), the problem with TC is that it lacks sufficient wide-ranging "Green demographics"...

I suppose University-Rosedale is the most "Green-friendly" of the TO ridings?

[King of Kensington]

TC NDP I am told will be nominating their candidate on Oct. 2.

[King of Kensington]

There's a lot of KWT-type "promiscuous progressives" in TC.  Still, it was their fourth best riding last year.  They spent $60K there - twice as much as in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.

[King of Kensington]

In the other by-election, it looks like the talk about the Tories making a serious play for York Centre came to nothing.  Liberals appointed local businesswoman and Israeli Canadian Ya'ara Saks.   Tories acclaimed Julius Tiangson, a Filipino minister from Mississauga who ran there federally in the past.

[King of Kensington]

There doesn't seem to be any "big names" and the NDP doesn't seem to really have put much effort into Toronto Centre.  I think they're just hoping for second place. 

My feeling is the result will be similar to the 2008 by-election where Bob Rae got elected.

[King of Kensington]

Brian Chang won the nomination in Toronto Centre.  Andrea Vasquez is the NDP candidate in York Centre again.

[King of Kensington]

Noticed that the Conservatives are running another pro-life candidate in York Centre.  The Liberals are also the only party (I believe) that's running a Jewish candidate there. 

[King of Kensington]

York Centre Conservative candidate said Kamala Harris isn't "legit Black" but "trans-racial"

https://twitter.com/GregFergus/status/1317109032092651521

[King of Kensington]

Any predictions for tomorrow's Toronto by-elections?

[King of Kensington]

Toronto Centre I'm thinking it'll be something like Liberals 50-55%, Greens 15-20%, NDP a bit behind that.  Really a battle for second place.

[King of Kensington]

York Centre I'm expecting a roughly 50-35 split - similar to last time.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals successfully fended off attacks on Fortress Toronto.

[King of Kensington]

They just more polls, Liberal is up by 500 votes

Yeah, that was weird; in an instant, went from a dead heat to a healthier Lib margin.  Must have been an advance poll in the W part of the riding, or something.

As for Toronto Centre--I sort of had the inkling the Greens wouldn't just be battling the NDP for a distant second.  But it's definitely interesting how despite Annamie's gains, the NDP share didn't *really* crater relative to last year--that is, it was the "Justin progressive" vote she *really* cannibalized.  And I already anticipated this could wind up the worst Lib result (save 2011) since the 1980s--and that's exactly what happened...

Both the Liberals and NDP were down about 25% from their vote share.

[King of Kensington]

Re: York Centre, Ya'ara Saks is more of a progressive Zionist and it's a largely Orthodox and Russian constituency.