Canadian by-elections, 2020

[DL]

The two Ottawa area byelections are tomorrow and I've seen remarkably little coverage of them. I realize most people probably think its a forgone conclusion they will stay Liberal - but nonetheless these are the first electoral tests since the Ford PCs took power. I'd be very curious to see just how badly the PCs do. Could they fall into third or even fourth place? Could the NDP make a credible showing in Ottawa-vanier? 

[DL]

I wonder if the fabled Mark Carney might be brought home to run for the Liberals in YC? On the Tory side it could also be a place for Leslyn Lewis to go for a seat

[DL]

There has been remarkably little discussion of Peter McKay’s lack of a seat in the House of Commons. Has he been asked if he would force a Tory MP to quit and force a byelelction right away to get into Parliament? Has he made any commitment to go back to his old seat in Nova Scotia?

When Jagmeet Singh was running for the NDP leadership his lack of a seat was constantly raised and he kept having to answer questions about. Why don’t I ever see this issue come up with regard to McKay?

[DL]

The last thing the Liberals want is a vacancy in Central Nova perfectly times for McKay to win a Liberal seat and make a grand entrance to parliament from his old Central Nova seat

[DL]

Don't see Kristyn Wong-Tam going federal where she has little chance of winning.  She has mayoral aspirations.

KWT was courted by the Ontario NDP in 2018 and she refused - and they ended up winning Toronto Centre easily with an unknown candidate

[DL]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

[DL]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

Does Ontario have a resign-to-run(-federally?) law (for its MPPs)? Or would he only have to trigger a provincial by-election in the event that he's elected federally at the next federal election, whenever that may be?

Yes if an Ontario MPP runs federally they must resign their seat

[DL]

There'll be a by-election on October 6 in Humber-Gros Morne, NL due to former Premier Dwight Ball's resignation. New Premier Andrew Furey will run to get a seat in the legislature. Should be a formality.

I read somewhere that the PC will run some guy who ran for an NDP federal nomination a few years ago, then backed the NL Liberals last year and is now a PC. sigh...only in Newfoundland...

[DL]

Apparently this gives the Greens just 2 days to get their new leader on the ballot. If it's Murray or Paul, they're going to want to run in Toronto Centre. Murray represented the riding provincially and Paul was their candidate last time.

Then again maybe the new Green leader skips taking the bait given that they would,face almost certain defeat in Toronto Centre in the current circumstances and that could be a terrible way to start as leader.

[DL]

Looks like Kristyn Wong-Tam is backing Marci Ien:

https://twitter.com/MarciIen/status/1309651649477181440

I read the link to the tweet and all it says is that they talked and had a nice conversation
. It’s not exactly unusual for candidates for the federal seat of Toronto Centre to reach out to the city councillor. Paul and whoever the NDP runs can also chat with KWT and then tweet about having had a “constructive conversation” it’s pretty meaningless

[DL]

So, if Paul wins the Green leadership, this will probably become a Liberal-Green race? It might become 'nationalized' in that scenario. The Liberals would still be favoured obviously, but the Greens would probably break 30%.

I doubt it...this byelection will be super low profile what with the pandemic etc... and the Greens have zero organization in TC...she will probably be lucky to get 10% whether she is leader or not