Canadian by-elections, 2020

[mileslunn]

Ottawa-Vanier probably one of the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario so easy Liberal hold.  Orleans was a decade ago a bellwether but at both federal and provincial has trended solidly Liberal.  Considering how much Tories have fallen since election, if they couldn't win it in 2018, no way they do now.

[mileslunn]

By elections have been called for March 10th in Cape Breton Centre and Truro-Bible Hill

On those, Cape Breton Centre should be an NDP-Liberal fight.  Truro-Bible Hill interesting as it went NDP, but partly due to popular MLA who is now a federal Liberal (in fact it was strong showing in Truro portion that put her over the top, Tories won most polls in Colchester County portion), but my guess is the PCs pick it up, but possible it goes Liberal.  Local candidates tend to matter more in Atlantic Canada than elsewhere.

[mileslunn]

The two Ottawa area byelections are tomorrow and I've seen remarkably little coverage of them. I realize most people probably think its a forgone conclusion they will stay Liberal - but nonetheless these are the first electoral tests since the Ford PCs took power. I'd be very curious to see just how badly the PCs do. Could they fall into third or even fourth place? Could the NDP make a credible showing in Ottawa-vanier? 

In Ottawa-Vanier, I expect them to get clobbered.  Would be shocked if they got over 20% there.  Doubt NDP will be competitive but probably come in second place.  In Orleans should lose badly, but probably second.  As for share of popular vote, hard to say but if they cross 30% mark, then better than expected showing, below 25% a bad night so best guess is high 20s for PCs there but hard to say for sure.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts are:

Liberals: Great night won both solidly so while a lot can happen between now and next election at least looks promising.

NDP: Did okay as weren't realistically going to win either seat, but at least didn't implode as badly as some feared.

PCs: Disastrous night.  Were never going to win either, but their share of the popular vote was worst than they got federally and in fact I believe worst showing in those two since at least 1990 or 1987 and both those elections were disastrous for PCs.  So they have a long road ahead if they want to win in 2022, which I am not sure if they can, at least not with Doug Ford as leader.

[mileslunn]

York Centre is probably the most favourable to Tories of 416 seats so if the Tories are going to win any seats in 416, this would be one of the first to fall.  By same token looking at current polls, pretty sure Liberals would easily hold this at the moment.  Nonetheless if Tories want to be competitive in the GTA, this is pretty much a must win and if they cannot win here or at least come close that shows how big a trouble they are in and that problem runs much deeper than leader.

Another one is Surrey South as Tracy Redies in BC has resigned.  This is normally a safe BC Liberal seat so in normal times it would be an easy BC Liberal win.  But with Horgan having around a 15 point lead provincially, it might be closer than normal and upset while not likely is at least plausible.  Certainly if NDP does win or even comes close, that is sign they are on track for a landslide and maybe even enough that BC Liberals should consider changing leaders.

[mileslunn]

York Centre is probably the most favourable to Tories of 416 seats so if the Tories are going to win any seats in 416, this would be one of the first to fall.  By same token looking at current polls, pretty sure Liberals would easily hold this at the moment.  Nonetheless if Tories want to be competitive in the GTA, this is pretty much a must win and if they cannot win here or at least come close that shows how big a trouble they are in and that problem runs much deeper than leader.

Though it's a very qualified form of "most favourable", attached almost entirely to the Jewish rightward swing over the past generation--keeping in mind that prior to said swing, YC was "nuclear Liberal" (staying Grit in the 1984 blowout, going 70% in the Chretien years, etc), and that the "natural condition" of everything W of the Allen Road remains Liberal a la Humber River-Black Creek.  And in recent years, the Jewish swing's been matched by a Chinese-Canadian rightward swing, which is why the 2019 Lib-Con margins were marginally narrower in both Willowdale and Scarborough-Agincourt.  (It didn't help that the Cons' 2019 YC nominee was a "Scheer socon" rather than a Jewish-community figurehead.)  The "diversifying" effect of gentrification and urban intensification also doesn't necessarily work in the Cons' favour, either.

It *might* be interesting, though, if a presumptive-party-leader Peter MacKay uses this as a springboard back into Parliament--don't know what his "friend of Israel" credentials are...

I would still say this riding overall leans Liberal, but no 416 riding is exactly Tory friendly, but point being if they are to win seats in 416 which they pretty much will need to if they want to form government, this would be one of the first to fall.  As for Peter MacKay, my guess is one of the MPs who supported him in Alberta or Saskatchewan steps aside as running here too big a risk since if he loses, then his leadership is in jeopardy, see John Tory 2009.

[mileslunn]

There has been remarkably little discussion of Peter McKay’s lack of a seat in the House of Commons. Has he been asked if he would force a Tory MP to quit and force a byelelction right away to get into Parliament? Has he made any commitment to go back to his old seat in Nova Scotia?

When Jagmeet Singh was running for the NDP leadership his lack of a seat was constantly raised and he kept having to answer questions about. Why don’t I ever see this issue come up with regard to McKay?

He has promised to run in Central Nova next election, but yeah where he will get next seat is a question, but my guess is one of the MPs in Alberta or Saskatchewan step aside for him or maybe even in rural Manitoba or Bob Zimmer in Northeast BC.  While Rural Ontario is generally fairly safe, probably wants to avoid a repeat of what happened to John Tory in 2009.

[mileslunn]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

I think as long as Liberals are ahead of NDP, they should easily hold this.  Only flips if NDP pulls ahead of Liberals which I don't see happening anytime soon.

[mileslunn]

I think the Israel issue has been effectively neutralized, which is the best weapon the Tories have in York Centre (plus it's a generally Liberal riding).  MacKay would be foolish to run there since there's so many better options available.  

MacKay would be foolish although this riding did vote PC in 2018 and got over 50% too so it is one of the more favourable ridings for Tories in York Centre.  Nonetheless Tories would have to be ahead in Ontario, which they aren't now before they have a realistic chance of flipping this.  But if they want to bring Carney in, Toronto Centre is probably a safer riding than York Centre.

[mileslunn]

Surprised Baber would run.  Yes right now his seat would probably stay PC provincially in a by-election but no guarantee he would win it federally.  If Tories want to win federally, York Centre is the type of riding they need to win, but I highly doubt they would at moment.

Realistically Tories cannot win right now.  Maybe in a year or two their odds will be better after introducing O'Toole to people and also issues like credit downgrades and struggle with recovery, but at moment people are clearly on left fiscally.  Balanced budgets, tax cuts, and free markets, people aren't interested.  First two won't be feasible for a while while latter will be after vaccine developed but not before. 

[mileslunn]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

Perhaps but what if Del Duca loses it.  York Centre used to be a Liberal stronghold, but in last 15 years its usually been one of the best Tory showings in 416 so Tories only lose this when they get shut out of the 416 which is most of the time.  But based on provincial polling my guess is it would stay PC but would stay Liberal federally.  Biggest ethnic groups there are Italians and Jewish who were both reliably Liberal historically but Jewish community has swung quite heavily to Tories.  Italian community more mixed bag but generally tend to be Blue Liberals/Red Tories.

[mileslunn]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

Dennis King is riding high in polls so I think PCs could win Charlottetown-Winsloe which would give them their majority.

For BC, Surrey-White Rock is normally a safe BC Liberal seat so probably stays BC Liberals, but if NDP has a 20 point lead, then that puts normally safe ridings in danger.  If BC Liberals lose this, its likely Andrew Wilkinson is forced to resign as leader which might actually be good for party.  He has the charisma of a rock and there is nothing really appealing about the guy so getting someone a bit younger, maybe a woman, or minority, and not connected to past BC Liberal administration would probably serve party better.

[mileslunn]

Liberals hold both.

[mileslunn]

York Centre nowadays is a bellwether (wasn't always) so while confident Liberals will win it, I think this will be a good sign of how competitive or how much trouble Tories are in.  If they narrowly lose it, then on right track just need to keep it going.  If Liberals win by double digits, good sign Tories need a major revamp.  I think BC election and Saskatchewan tomorrow will be a strong warning current brand of conservatism is not selling in urban Canada.  BC which is very urban is why BC Liberals lost.  Saskatchewan is still more rural so Saskatchewan party will win, but lose a number of urban seats.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts by party are this:

Liberals: While low turnout so don't read a lot in this not a good night.  If they were thinking of triggering a snap election, this should make them pause.  Yes won both, but margins were much closer than what they should be at if they want to win a majority.

Tories: Good but not great night.  Irrelevant in Toronto Centre as expected while fell a bit short in York Centre, but not a bad showing.  Basically have a strong foundation to work with in suburban Ontario, but still work to do since if they want to win a majority, they need to win ridings like this.

NDP: Irrelevant in both ridings.

Green Party: Very good showing in Toronto Centre and while Annemarie Paul fell short, this is not exactly a prime riding for a Green pickup so definitely shows she has potential.

PPC:  Looked like Mad Max would cost Conservatives the seat but didn't quite.  However shows his party is largely irrelevant.