Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.
The bolded presents an issue in & of itself: given the party's current financial situation, they might not even be in a position to throw money at this seat in an attempt to win it (especially in a minority government situation, where much more contestable seats could be up for grabs in a year or 2).
In any event, though, Trudeau presumably won't call these by-elections (Toronto Centre & York Centre) for a while. Since he has 6 months to do so, he'd be smart to wait until the current scandal dies down a little bit.
