Canadian by-elections, 2020

[adma]

Perhaps legacy of her having represented Rosedale, but KWT is actually a bit of a coalition-building fence-sitter--even if not quite to the left-to-centre morph degree of predecessors like Barbara Hall or Kyle Rae (not to mention, on a parliamentary level, Glen Murray or Bob Rae).  Still, I agree that given the riding's present configuration, the NDP doesn't *need* her to be competitive here.

[King of Kensington]

Doesn't sound like she has much of an issue with the Liberal government:

https://twitter.com/kristynwongtam/status/1299061429140631560

[Krago]

Windsor has set a new date for the Ward 7 by-election: October 5.

https://www.citywindsor.ca/cityhall/Municipal-Election/Pages/Municipal-Election.aspx

Since nominations had closed when the election was suspended, they will not be re-opened.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/TheHillTimes/status/1300400441667145729

[brucejoel99]

Baber looking to jump into federal politics isn't all that surprising: he was a big part of MacKay's campaign, so he's already had a foot in the door for months anyway.

[King of Kensington]

No Joe Oliver comeback?

[DL]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

[brucejoel99]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

Does Ontario have a resign-to-run(-federally?) law (for its MPPs)? Or would he only have to trigger a provincial by-election in the event that he's elected federally at the next federal election, whenever that may be?

[mileslunn]

Surprised Baber would run.  Yes right now his seat would probably stay PC provincially in a by-election but no guarantee he would win it federally.  If Tories want to win federally, York Centre is the type of riding they need to win, but I highly doubt they would at moment.

Realistically Tories cannot win right now.  Maybe in a year or two their odds will be better after introducing O'Toole to people and also issues like credit downgrades and struggle with recovery, but at moment people are clearly on left fiscally.  Balanced budgets, tax cuts, and free markets, people aren't interested.  First two won't be feasible for a while while latter will be after vaccine developed but not before. 

[mileslunn]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

Perhaps but what if Del Duca loses it.  York Centre used to be a Liberal stronghold, but in last 15 years its usually been one of the best Tory showings in 416 so Tories only lose this when they get shut out of the 416 which is most of the time.  But based on provincial polling my guess is it would stay PC but would stay Liberal federally.  Biggest ethnic groups there are Italians and Jewish who were both reliably Liberal historically but Jewish community has swung quite heavily to Tories.  Italian community more mixed bag but generally tend to be Blue Liberals/Red Tories.

[adma]

No Joe Oliver comeback?

Just because Monte Kwinter could get provincially reelected here at 80 doesn't mean that Joe Oliver would be tempted to make a comeback at the same age (sure, it didn't stop Raymond Cho provincially in Scarborough North, but...)

[DL]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

Does Ontario have a resign-to-run(-federally?) law (for its MPPs)? Or would he only have to trigger a provincial by-election in the event that he's elected federally at the next federal election, whenever that may be?

Yes if an Ontario MPP runs federally they must resign their seat

[adma]

If Baber won the federal Tory nomination he would have to resign his seat in the Ontario legislature creating a provincial byelection. I wonder if Del Duca would run there since provincially York Centre has always been such a Liberal stronghold

Does Ontario have a resign-to-run(-federally?) law (for its MPPs)? Or would he only have to trigger a provincial by-election in the event that he's elected federally at the next federal election, whenever that may be?

Yes if an Ontario MPP runs federally they must resign their seat

Back in December of 1984, there were *five* concurrent provincial elections to replace members who resigned to run federally earlier that year--the best demonstration of that rule there could be...

[adma]

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/09/01/maxime-bernier-plans-to-run-in-a-toronto-area-byelection/?fbclid=IwAR1jGsq7W6adDu6dXKPsb03RPsfZY7COzkeBISvLc466pezpQS7DO9asTxY

I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the same share *individually* in such a byelection that he got nationally last year.

Or at most, something comparable to the 3.09% Paul Hellyer got in Toronto Centre as leader of the Canadian Action Party in 2000.

[Hatman 🍁]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

[DC Al Fine]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

You've hear rumours of a PEI election?

[mileslunn]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

Dennis King is riding high in polls so I think PCs could win Charlottetown-Winsloe which would give them their majority.

For BC, Surrey-White Rock is normally a safe BC Liberal seat so probably stays BC Liberals, but if NDP has a 20 point lead, then that puts normally safe ridings in danger.  If BC Liberals lose this, its likely Andrew Wilkinson is forced to resign as leader which might actually be good for party.  He has the charisma of a rock and there is nothing really appealing about the guy so getting someone a bit younger, maybe a woman, or minority, and not connected to past BC Liberal administration would probably serve party better.

[Hatman 🍁]

A couple of provincial ridings are now vacant:

- Robert Mitchell (L-Charlottetown-Winsloe) resigned. If the PCs can pick this up, they will get a majority in the legislature, so this is might be a hotly contested by-election. It's Charlottetown though, so more likely the Greens pick this up than the Tories.

- Tracy Redies (L-Surrey-White Rock) resigned to become CEO of Science World. Safe Liberal seat, but the NDP is riding high in the polls, and we've seen them pick off safe Liberal seats in by-elections before.

Of course, there are rumours that we're heading into provincial elections in both provinces, so this may all be moot.

You've hear rumours of a PEI election?

Saw something on Twitter. So take it with a grain of salt.

[Krago]

Windsor has set a new date for the Ward 7 by-election: October 5.

https://www.citywindsor.ca/cityhall/Municipal-Election/Pages/Municipal-Election.aspx

Since nominations had closed when the election was suspended, they will not be re-opened.

Here is my favourite candidate photo:

https://michellegajewski.ca/about

If you scroll to the bottom of the page, you can see Michelle Gajewski wearing her '2ND RUNNER UP' sash from the 2013 Miss Windsor pageant.


My favourite website belongs to Jeewen Gill since his home page includes a polling division map.

[Hatman 🍁]

There'll be a by-election on October 6 in Humber-Gros Morne, NL due to former Premier Dwight Ball's resignation. New Premier Andrew Furey will run to get a seat in the legislature. Should be a formality.

[DL]

There'll be a by-election on October 6 in Humber-Gros Morne, NL due to former Premier Dwight Ball's resignation. New Premier Andrew Furey will run to get a seat in the legislature. Should be a formality.

I read somewhere that the PC will run some guy who ran for an NDP federal nomination a few years ago, then backed the NL Liberals last year and is now a PC. sigh...only in Newfoundland...

[King of Kensington]

Marci Ien, host of CTV's The Social, will be the Liberal candidate in Toronto Centre:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/broadcast-journalist-marci-ien-to-run-as-liberal-candidate-in-morneau-s-former-riding-1.5109090?fbclid=IwAR20ENwUAgA7RIcBzg77xZOSjHNx7grp8iJgnx-DYZoAAT45iFCfIXAg1HY

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/mikelecouteur/status/1306995061176098817

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently this gives the Greens just 2 days to get their new leader on the ballot. If it's Murray or Paul, they're going to want to run in Toronto Centre. Murray represented the riding provincially and Paul was their candidate last time.

[toaster]

Will definitely be interesting if Glenn Murray runs here if he is the leader of the Greens.  He was well liked in the riding when he was the Member of Provincial Parliament, from what I understand.