Canadian by-elections, 2020

[mileslunn]

Liberals hold both.

[King of Kensington]

Toronto Centre I'm thinking it'll be something like Liberals 50-55%, Greens 15-20%, NDP a bit behind that.  Really a battle for second place.

[mileslunn]

York Centre nowadays is a bellwether (wasn't always) so while confident Liberals will win it, I think this will be a good sign of how competitive or how much trouble Tories are in.  If they narrowly lose it, then on right track just need to keep it going.  If Liberals win by double digits, good sign Tories need a major revamp.  I think BC election and Saskatchewan tomorrow will be a strong warning current brand of conservatism is not selling in urban Canada.  BC which is very urban is why BC Liberals lost.  Saskatchewan is still more rural so Saskatchewan party will win, but lose a number of urban seats.

[King of Kensington]

York Centre I'm expecting a roughly 50-35 split - similar to last time.

[adma]

One hilarious thing I noticed in York Centre today, the PPC signs read "Max Bernier".  An even lamer feat of "Anglo-colloquializing" a leader's name than "Tom Mulcair".

[Benjamin Frank]

Can anybody else feel the Turmelmentum this time?

Turmelmania is coming on!

[Benjamin Frank]

Horse race in York Centre
1,349 Liberals
1,300 Conservatives

35/143 polls reporting.
https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2265&lang=e

Good race in Toronto Centre as well
1,434 Liberal
1,193 Green

30/144 polls reporting.

[trebor204]

Can anybody else feel the Turmelmentum this time?

Turmelmania is coming on!

I'm more of Znoneofthe, Above

[2952-0-0]

I'd chuckle if the Liberals keep York Centre, but CPC + PPC > LPC.

[trebor204]

The Conservative candidate is back in lead (3rd time tonight) in York Centre by 5 votes, both the Liberal and Conservative have taking turns in the lead.

[Poirot]

Liberal lead by 50 votes in York centre.

I didn't hear it could be very close.

[trebor204]

Liberal lead by 50 votes in York centre.

I didn't hear it could be very close.

Now the Conservative is up by 1 Vote

[Poirot]

Conservative up by 41.

Unfortunately for me the count is too slow, so won't see the end tonight.

[trebor204]

They just more polls, Liberal is up by 500 votes

[Njall]

I'd chuckle if the Liberals keep York Centre, but CPC + PPC > LPC.

Looks like we're actually on the path for this to happen.

[adma]

They just more polls, Liberal is up by 500 votes

Yeah, that was weird; in an instant, went from a dead heat to a healthier Lib margin.  Must have been an advance poll in the W part of the riding, or something.

As for Toronto Centre--I sort of had the inkling the Greens wouldn't just be battling the NDP for a distant second.  But it's definitely interesting how despite Annamie's gains, the NDP share didn't *really* crater relative to last year--that is, it was the "Justin progressive" vote she *really* cannibalized.  And I already anticipated this could wind up the worst Lib result (save 2011) since the 1980s--and that's exactly what happened...

[2952-0-0]

I'd chuckle if the Liberals keep York Centre, but CPC + PPC > LPC.

Looks like we're actually on the path for this to happen.

It appears that LPC > CPC + PPC, but just barely, with one poll left.

So Maxime Bernier is still irrelevant.

[Benjamin Frank]

They just more polls, Liberal is up by 500 votes

Yeah, that was weird; in an instant, went from a dead heat to a healthier Lib margin.  Must have been an advance poll in the W part of the riding, or something.

As for Toronto Centre--I sort of had the inkling the Greens wouldn't just be battling the NDP for a distant second.  But it's definitely interesting how despite Annamie's gains, the NDP share didn't *really* crater relative to last year--that is, it was the "Justin progressive" vote she *really* cannibalized.  And I already anticipated this could wind up the worst Lib result (save 2011) since the 1980s--and that's exactly what happened...

Liberals who ride bicycles. 

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals successfully fended off attacks on Fortress Toronto.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts by party are this:

Liberals: While low turnout so don't read a lot in this not a good night.  If they were thinking of triggering a snap election, this should make them pause.  Yes won both, but margins were much closer than what they should be at if they want to win a majority.

Tories: Good but not great night.  Irrelevant in Toronto Centre as expected while fell a bit short in York Centre, but not a bad showing.  Basically have a strong foundation to work with in suburban Ontario, but still work to do since if they want to win a majority, they need to win ridings like this.

NDP: Irrelevant in both ridings.

Green Party: Very good showing in Toronto Centre and while Annemarie Paul fell short, this is not exactly a prime riding for a Green pickup so definitely shows she has potential.

PPC:  Looked like Mad Max would cost Conservatives the seat but didn't quite.  However shows his party is largely irrelevant.

[adma]

My thoughts by party are this:

Liberals: While low turnout so don't read a lot in this not a good night.  If they were thinking of triggering a snap election, this should make them pause.  Yes won both, but margins were much closer than what they should be at if they want to win a majority.

Tories: Good but not great night.  Irrelevant in Toronto Centre as expected while fell a bit short in York Centre, but not a bad showing.  Basically have a strong foundation to work with in suburban Ontario, but still work to do since if they want to win a majority, they need to win ridings like this.

NDP: Irrelevant in both ridings.

Green Party: Very good showing in Toronto Centre and while Annemarie Paul fell short, this is not exactly a prime riding for a Green pickup so definitely shows she has potential.

PPC:  Looked like Mad Max would cost Conservatives the seat but didn't quite.  However shows his party is largely irrelevant.

(1) I'm not sure if the margin in Toronto Centre would have been *that* close if it weren't for the Annamie Paul goodwill honeymoon--though I still hold that the seat's more "targetable" than many have claimed.  And the Liberal share there was only barely higher than the Con share in York Centre, which is telling you something.

(2) I think a lot of people were anticipating more of a 2019-style result for the Cons in YC than the 2015-style result which happened--indication there's still life either in the old Jewish Conservative dogwhistle or Doug Ford's "pandemic honeymoon" (with an assist from federal GTA leadership)

(3) The NDP's not *completely* irrelevant--indeed, they held a surprising degree of their share in TC despite the Annamie Paul surge (and did better than in the Bob Rae byelection and the general that followed--even if that was when Rosedale was still part of the riding)

(4) My "watch Annamie Paul" logic vindicated--though were she not leader, she probably would have gotten something closer to her 2019 share.  And even if she took more from the Libs (and even, arguably, the Cons) than from the NDP, who's to say that vote taken would have gone back into the Liberal camp.

(5) I didn't realize he was credited as "Max" Bernier on the ballot as well.  And PPC, much like the Lepenistes in France, seem a bit more "complicated" than a mere Conservative vote-splitter.

[DC Al Fine]

(2) I think a lot of people were anticipating more of a 2019-style result for the Cons in YC than the 2015-style result which happened--indication there's still life either in the old Jewish Conservative dogwhistle or Doug Ford's "pandemic honeymoon" (with an assist from federal GTA leadership)

I suspect a big chunk of that result is Tory voters being more motivated to vote given the circumstances as well.

[adma]

(2) I think a lot of people were anticipating more of a 2019-style result for the Cons in YC than the 2015-style result which happened--indication there's still life either in the old Jewish Conservative dogwhistle or Doug Ford's "pandemic honeymoon" (with an assist from federal GTA leadership)

I suspect a big chunk of that result is Tory voters being more motivated to vote given the circumstances as well.

And also, a candidate that made *some* sense relative to riding demos, unlike 2019.

[DC Al Fine]

(2) I think a lot of people were anticipating more of a 2019-style result for the Cons in YC than the 2015-style result which happened--indication there's still life either in the old Jewish Conservative dogwhistle or Doug Ford's "pandemic honeymoon" (with an assist from federal GTA leadership)

I suspect a big chunk of that result is Tory voters being more motivated to vote given the circumstances as well.

And also, a candidate that made *some* sense relative to riding demos, unlike 2019.

Wait, I thought we ran socons both times?

[adma]

(2) I think a lot of people were anticipating more of a 2019-style result for the Cons in YC than the 2015-style result which happened--indication there's still life either in the old Jewish Conservative dogwhistle or Doug Ford's "pandemic honeymoon" (with an assist from federal GTA leadership)

I suspect a big chunk of that result is Tory voters being more motivated to vote given the circumstances as well.

And also, a candidate that made *some* sense relative to riding demos, unlike 2019.

Wait, I thought we ran socons both times?

I'm talking about Julius Tiangson's implicit ties to the Filipino community.