Canadian by-elections, 2020

[DL]

Apparently this gives the Greens just 2 days to get their new leader on the ballot. If it's Murray or Paul, they're going to want to run in Toronto Centre. Murray represented the riding provincially and Paul was their candidate last time.

Then again maybe the new Green leader skips taking the bait given that they would,face almost certain defeat in Toronto Centre in the current circumstances and that could be a terrible way to start as leader.

[adma]

Given the Greens' electoral record, the most they probably could have hoped for in a TC-type riding was "moral victory", anyway--and if we go by 2019's poll-by-poll results (overly plumped within Old Cabbagetown/Don Vale), the problem with TC is that it lacks sufficient wide-ranging "Green demographics"...

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose who ever wins will just plan on running in Saanich come next election.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like Kristyn Wong-Tam is backing Marci Ien:

https://twitter.com/MarciIen/status/1309651649477181440

[King of Kensington]

Given the Greens' electoral record, the most they probably could have hoped for in a TC-type riding was "moral victory", anyway--and if we go by 2019's poll-by-poll results (overly plumped within Old Cabbagetown/Don Vale), the problem with TC is that it lacks sufficient wide-ranging "Green demographics"...

I suppose University-Rosedale is the most "Green-friendly" of the TO ridings?

[DL]

Looks like Kristyn Wong-Tam is backing Marci Ien:

https://twitter.com/MarciIen/status/1309651649477181440

I read the link to the tweet and all it says is that they talked and had a nice conversation
. It’s not exactly unusual for candidates for the federal seat of Toronto Centre to reach out to the city councillor. Paul and whoever the NDP runs can also chat with KWT and then tweet about having had a “constructive conversation” it’s pretty meaningless

[Hatman 🍁]

So, if Paul wins the Green leadership, this will probably become a Liberal-Green race? It might become 'nationalized' in that scenario. The Liberals would still be favoured obviously, but the Greens would probably break 30%.

[DL]

So, if Paul wins the Green leadership, this will probably become a Liberal-Green race? It might become 'nationalized' in that scenario. The Liberals would still be favoured obviously, but the Greens would probably break 30%.

I doubt it...this byelection will be super low profile what with the pandemic etc... and the Greens have zero organization in TC...she will probably be lucky to get 10% whether she is leader or not

[King of Kensington]

TC NDP I am told will be nominating their candidate on Oct. 2.

[adma]

Given the Greens' electoral record, the most they probably could have hoped for in a TC-type riding was "moral victory", anyway--and if we go by 2019's poll-by-poll results (overly plumped within Old Cabbagetown/Don Vale), the problem with TC is that it lacks sufficient wide-ranging "Green demographics"...

I suppose University-Rosedale is the most "Green-friendly" of the TO ridings?

It'd be *more* Green-friendly; but it's also had the most "serious" Green efforts in recent years, thanks to Tim Grant's provincial and federal candidacies.

[adma]

So, if Paul wins the Green leadership, this will probably become a Liberal-Green race? It might become 'nationalized' in that scenario. The Liberals would still be favoured obviously, but the Greens would probably break 30%.

I doubt it...this byelection will be super low profile what with the pandemic etc... and the Greens have zero organization in TC...she will probably be lucky to get 10% whether she is leader or not

I can see something low-to-mid-teens, along the lines of Daniel Green's byelection and general result in Outremont in 2019.  And of course, scheduling means that leadership coattails would be putting the cart before the horse (let's remember that to some degree, Elizabeth May was exceptional for already being a "celebrity" upon being Green leader--neither Paul nor any of the other present contenders save Glen Murray can claim anything similar).  And it also depends on what kind of effort (or not) the NDP put into the race--if the party were in anything like the doldrums it was in before the last election, I could see them marginalized on behalf of a Green-centric "united left"; but that's far from the gimme-case now...

[King of Kensington]

There's a lot of KWT-type "promiscuous progressives" in TC.  Still, it was their fourth best riding last year.  They spent $60K there - twice as much as in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.

[King of Kensington]

In the other by-election, it looks like the talk about the Tories making a serious play for York Centre came to nothing.  Liberals appointed local businesswoman and Israeli Canadian Ya'ara Saks.   Tories acclaimed Julius Tiangson, a Filipino minister from Mississauga who ran there federally in the past.

[lilTommy]

TC NDP I am told will be nominating their candidate on Oct. 2.

Any hint of who is running for the NDP nomination?

[King of Kensington]

There doesn't seem to be any "big names" and the NDP doesn't seem to really have put much effort into Toronto Centre.  I think they're just hoping for second place. 

My feeling is the result will be similar to the 2008 by-election where Bob Rae got elected.

[lilTommy]

There doesn't seem to be any "big names" and the NDP doesn't seem to really have put much effort into Toronto Centre.  I think they're just hoping for second place. 

My feeling is the result will be similar to the 2008 by-election where Bob Rae got elected.

4 candidates are vetted, at least the NDP is making a race of their own nomination:

Caleb Chapman - Economist & Consultant, LGBTQ
https://twitter.com/TheCChapman

Brian Chang - Former Candidate in 2019, works at SEIU Healthcare, LGBTQ
https://twitter.com/bfchangTO

Walied Khogali Ali - Organizer, ran for City Council in 2018 in TC
https://twitter.com/waleedkhogali

Sebastián Mendoza-Price - Tenant Organizer, LGBTQ
https://twitter.com/sebastianmpndp

[King of Kensington]

Brian Chang won the nomination in Toronto Centre.  Andrea Vasquez is the NDP candidate in York Centre again.

[King of Kensington]

Noticed that the Conservatives are running another pro-life candidate in York Centre.  The Liberals are also the only party (I believe) that's running a Jewish candidate there. 

[adma]

And...looks like Maxime Bernier is choosing York Centre for his reentry into Parliament. 

Fat freaking chance; but interesting on one psephological point:  it'll be the first time since 2004 than York Centre has had *more* than four candidates running.  (For five consecutive elections, they only had Lib-Con-NDP-Green.  There wasn't even a People's candidate there in 2019.)

[Hatman 🍁]

3 municipal by-elections tonight in Ontario.

In Ottawa's Cumberland Ward, Catherine Kitts (Liberal backed) easily wins with 54% of the vote over progressive Yvette Ashiri who won 22%. I suppose not a bad result for a progressive in Cumberland. The seat was vacated when Stephen Blais was elected to Queen's Park earlier this year in a by-election. No ideological shift (he was also a Liberal) on council; she is also a supporter of the mayor. But considering how terrible of a person Blais is, still an improvement.

In Windsor's Ward 7, Liberal Jeewen Gill wins with just 20% of the vote. The 2nd place challenger, Angelo Marignani has finished 2nd place in this ward five times in a row now. Talk about bad luck. This is the ward that current NDP MPP Percy Hatfield held until 2013, so it's sad to see no credible progressive take a shot at the seat. It was held by current Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk until he was elected to Parliament last year.

And some good news, in Cambrdige's Ward 7, New Democrat Scott Hamilton wins the seat with 32% of the vote. He was the party's candidate in Cambridge in the last federal election.

[adma]

No surprise
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/furey-humber-gros-morne-byelection-win-1.5752667

[King of Kensington]

York Centre Conservative candidate said Kamala Harris isn't "legit Black" but "trans-racial"

https://twitter.com/GregFergus/status/1317109032092651521

[Storr]

York Centre Conservative candidate said Kamala Harris isn't "legit Black" but "trans-racial"

https://twitter.com/GregFergus/status/1317109032092651521

Tories...

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a by-election yesterday in St. John's' Ward 2, which covers the city's more progressive east end.

Thanks to a massive vote split, former Tory cabinet minister Shawn Skinner picked up the seat, defeating activist Ophelia Ravencroft, who was the first non-binary person to run for office in Newfoundland. Another LGBT candidate, Greg Smith (and 2018 Newfoundland Brier rep) finished 4th. Had he won, he could've started a curler's caucus with Olympic gold medallist Jamie Korab who represents Ward 3.

Shawn Skinner    22.9%
Ophelia Ravencroft    17.2%
Lorne Lorder    17.0%
Greg Smith    10.8%
Carol Anne Furlong    10.5%
Matt House    8.8%
Greg Noseworthy    8.7%
Wallace Ryan    4.1%

[King of Kensington]

Any predictions for tomorrow's Toronto by-elections?