1980: Reagan vs. Muskie

[Joe Biden 2024]

At one point during the 1980 election, there was a "Draft Muskie" movement, where Muskie was seen as an alternative to Kennedy.

So let's posit three scenarios:

1: The DNC deadlocks between Carter and Kennedy and Muskie is nominated as a compromise.

2: Muskie challenges Carter for the nomination and defeats him.

3: Carter declines to run for re-election and Muskie wins the nomination.

How does the election turn out? Discuss with maps.

[Sir Mohamed]

1st option of the above is the most plausbile one, in my honest opinion. In this case, Reagan would have still won handily, but Muskie performs better than Carter; especially in non-Southern states.

✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Former CIA Director George Bush (R-TX): 392 EVs.; 49.1%
Secretary of State Edmund Muskie (D-ME)/Governor Milton Shapp (D-PA): 146 EVs.; 44.8%
Represenatative John Anderson (I-IL)/Former Ambassador Patrick Lucey (I-WI): 0 EVs.; 5.2%

[OSR stands with Israel]

^^ I think Reagan wins GA but other than that this would be my map

[Sir Mohamed]

^^ I think Reagan wins GA but other than that this would be my map

I think Carter's homestate bonus would still be barely enough for a Dem win, despite him not on ballot. It would for sure have been close, which is why I used the >40% shading.

[morgankingsley]

I think Reagan would still win the election. Ironically, despite his electoral defeat, due to how close many states were, I think Carter might have actually been one of the best positioned democrats to win that year. That being said, if I were to talk about a geographical standpoint, I would say Muskie would have performed much better in the northeast, much worse in the south, and roughly equal in the rest of the country, so his popular vote would not have been much different from Carter, but he would have won more states, and had a higher floor, but loses his defeated states by much worse, therefore having a lot lower of a ceiling

[HisGrace]

Probably about the same map except Muskie doesn't win Georgia. It was just Reagan's time and the public wanted something new.

[Fuzzy Bear]

A 468-70 Reagan blowout.

Muskie carries ME, MA, and NY, loses GA, WV, MD.

Anderson would not have been a factor in this race.  Indeed, he may not have even ran.  In the end, it would have been a 56-41 blowout for Reagan.  Muskie was a flop as a candidate in 1972, and he was a guy that brought little to the ticket.