So I was bored out of my mind and was thinking about something that had been of interest to me. What if Strom Thurmond had won more states, and denied Truman his majority? So I was thinking about it, and decided to break it down a bit for everybody. I already have the election and house race sort of figured out, but I am leaving it to you all to decide how history would realistically go from there.
So Truman needed about three or four states taken away from him to lose the majority he had, so let's break down all the Thurmond states he lost from largest percentage to lowest percentage.
In Georgia, the main reason that Thurmond was not slated as the democrat was because of the fact that no candidate for the governor race wanted to get a bad stigma, and wanted to have a chance winning. But what if Talmadge's father survived and been governor, or what is Talmadge decided that the national election was more important than his own personal race, then the slate would have been given to Thurmond, which gives Strom his fifth state
In Arkansas Laney was supposed to the dixiecrat, but refused and changed his mind on the issue a lot, despite being personally pro Thurmond. So what if he made it clear he would have no desire to be the Dixiecrat nominee, but did decide to stay firmly with the party itself, and rallied the state to give their slate to Thurmond? Well, that results in Strom getting his sixth state
In Florida, he was originally supposed to get half of the electors at the convention in a "compromise". But what if that didn't happen, and Upchurch's personal agenda to nominate Thurmond dominated Pepper's pro Truman campaign, and as a result, Florida names their small slate of electors to Thurmond? While this might not be as easy as Georgia and Arkansas, this is not unfeasible, and creates a area where Thurmond only needs one or two more to get his wishes.
In Tennesse, Crump was too anti Thurmond and had too much state power in the politics to change this. There is no chance Thurmons gets slated.
In Virginia, Byrd was also anti Thurmond, and due to the genuine threat that Dewey would win, there was no way their slate would be given to him
In Texas, there was a heavy battle in the state on who to nominate, and at one point Thurmond was leading in the polls, and in 1944 Texas had the largest success against Roosevelt with the texas Regulars party. If supporters of that party, plus people who supported Thurmond already in that summer season, come together, and if Truman didn't campaign there as much as he did, there is a chance that Texas would have nominated Thurmond for president. This gives Thurmond his eighth state in the election
In North Carolina, as with Tennesse, there would have been no way that the party leaders would have picked Thurmond as they would not have trusted him enough to either win the state or have the slate of electors given to him.
Then with this in mind, more states towards Thurmond as the demcorat nominee, Truman would have probably campaigned harder in the other states of the country, which would have given him some extra votes around the country. And let's say that his extra non southern campaigning, to try and avoid Thurmond's now strong base in the south, is able to give him Indiana, which was the closest state he lost in real life.
Truman comes just short of winning and fails to win outright.
Now we have a deadlocked election. Dewey wins his fifteen states no problem. Truman wins his nonsouthern states, which is 22. Thurmond probably gets all of his states in the first round at least of the deadlock.
So we are left with Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. The Dixiecrats will not nominate Dewey no matter what, who is much too progressive for them to handle. Truman wins the election in one of two ways. Either Dewey makes a deal with him to concede the election and give him three of his states on the condition that Warren is vice president, and he appoints a couple of Republicans to his cabinet. Or the Dixiecrats force him to stop the Civil Rights pursuit and forces him to maybe even go back on what he did accomplish, and if this happens, then you could see a situation where the south goes back to Truman in full force, which easy balances out any state Truman may lose in the nonsouth by this deal, and gives him more than enough.
So with this in mind, and Truman now going into his second term tied either by the Dixiecrats and their agenda, or the republicans in theirs, what would Truman's second term by like here
