What if 1948 was thrown to the house due Thurmond winning more states
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:41:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  What if 1948 was thrown to the house due Thurmond winning more states
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What if 1948 was thrown to the house due Thurmond winning more states  (Read 1491 times)
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 28, 2020, 06:43:56 PM »
« edited: January 28, 2020, 09:27:19 PM by morgankingsley »

So I was bored out of my mind and was thinking about something that had been of interest to me. What if Strom Thurmond had won more states, and denied Truman his majority? So I was thinking about it, and decided to break it down a bit for everybody. I already have the election and house race sort of figured out, but I am leaving it to you all to decide how history would realistically go from there.

So Truman needed about three or four states taken away from him to lose the majority he had, so let's break down all the Thurmond states he lost from largest percentage to lowest percentage.

In Georgia, the main reason that Thurmond was not slated as the democrat was because of the fact that no candidate for the governor race wanted to get a bad stigma, and wanted to have a chance winning. But what if Talmadge's father survived and been governor, or what is Talmadge decided that the national election was more important than his own personal race, then the slate would have been given to Thurmond, which gives Strom his fifth state

In Arkansas Laney was supposed to the dixiecrat, but refused and changed his mind on the issue a lot, despite being personally pro Thurmond. So what if he made it clear he would have no desire to be the Dixiecrat nominee, but did decide to stay firmly with the party itself, and rallied the state to give their slate to Thurmond? Well, that results in Strom getting his sixth state

In Florida, he was originally supposed to get half of the electors at the convention in a "compromise". But what if that didn't happen, and Upchurch's personal agenda to nominate Thurmond dominated Pepper's pro Truman campaign, and as a result, Florida names their small slate of electors to Thurmond? While this might not be as easy as Georgia and Arkansas, this is not unfeasible, and creates a area where Thurmond only needs one or two more to get his wishes.

In Tennesse, Crump was too anti Thurmond and had too much state power in the politics to change this. There is no chance Thurmons gets slated.

In Virginia, Byrd was also anti Thurmond, and due to the genuine threat that Dewey would win, there was no way their slate would be given to him

In Texas, there was a heavy battle in the state on who to nominate, and at one point Thurmond was leading in the polls, and in 1944 Texas had the largest success against Roosevelt with the texas Regulars party. If supporters of that party, plus people who supported Thurmond already in that summer season, come together, and if Truman didn't campaign there as much as he did, there is a chance that Texas would have nominated Thurmond for president. This gives Thurmond his eighth state in the election

In North Carolina, as with Tennesse, there would have been no way that the party leaders would have picked Thurmond as they would not have trusted him enough to either win the state or have the slate of electors given to him.

Then with this in mind, more states towards Thurmond as the demcorat nominee, Truman would have probably campaigned harder in the other states of the country, which would have given him some extra votes around the country. And let's say that his extra non southern campaigning, to try and avoid Thurmond's now strong base in the south, is able to give him Indiana, which was the closest state he lost in real life.



Truman comes just short of winning and fails to win outright.

Now we have a deadlocked election. Dewey wins his fifteen states no problem. Truman wins his nonsouthern states, which is 22. Thurmond probably gets all of his states in the first round at least of the deadlock.

So we are left with Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. The Dixiecrats will not nominate Dewey no matter what, who is much too progressive for them to handle. Truman wins the election in one of two ways. Either Dewey makes a deal with him to concede the election and give him three of his states on the condition that Warren is vice president, and he appoints a couple of Republicans to his cabinet. Or the Dixiecrats force him to stop the Civil Rights pursuit and forces him to maybe even go back on what he did accomplish, and if this happens, then you could see a situation where the south goes back to Truman in full force, which easy balances out any state Truman may lose in the nonsouth by this deal, and gives him more than enough.

So with this in mind, and Truman now going into his second term tied either by the Dixiecrats and their agenda, or the republicans in theirs, what would Truman's second term by like here
Logged
voice_of_resistance
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 488
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.34, S: 5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2020, 10:23:50 AM »

Well IIRC Dewey was fairly liberal and pro-New-Deal compared to many Republicans. That said, if Truman allied with Dewey, the southern realignment would accelerate even quicker, probably kicking off in full force by 1952 instead of 1964. This makes me unlikely to have Truman ally with them. I think the Dixiecrats would just run the show and hold Truman hostage.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2020, 08:47:36 PM »

Truman might have been more willing to cooperate with the Dixiecrats, who - compared to Dewey - were more unwilling to make moves against Social Security & other policies that were popular with the southern populist wing of the Democratic Party. I don't know what Truman would be willing to give up in return, however. I don't think stopping his civil rights pursuit & maybe even going back on what he'd already accomplished (e.g. integration of the Armed Forces, etc.) was something he was gonna compromise on. Likely, the compromise comes down to pork & patronage, & I think Truman would be willing to give that in return for their support.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2020, 11:55:28 AM »

Thurmond has his people vote for Truman after forcing him to drop or at least slow-walk civil rights.  The CRA/VRA then happens under a Republican president and congress in the late 1950's.
Logged
538Electoral
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,691


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2020, 09:45:07 PM »

Truman still wins.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2020, 11:23:42 PM »

Thurmond has his people vote for Truman after forcing him to drop or at least slow-walk civil rights.  The CRA/VRA then happens under a Republican president and congress in the late 1950's.

Why? The Republicans were in charge in the 1950s as it was, and did pass the rather limited and ineffective Civil Rights Act of 1957 (which Thurmond infamously filibustered), but didn't go any farther than that. I don't know if Thurmond forcing Truman to back off on Civil Rights (which I'm not convinced he would do) would change much in the long run. No matter how much the Dixiecrats kicked and screamed and even delayed it, the party was moving forward on Civil Rights one way or another. If Kennedy still wins in 1960, nothing much changes probably.
Logged
Lechasseur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,757


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2020, 03:25:44 AM »

Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,504
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2020, 10:59:21 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2020, 08:03:03 AM by Kalwejt »



The only state that might have gone to the Dixiecrats was Georgia.

Keep in mind that the states that supported Thurmond and Wright were states whose DEMOCRATIC electors were pledged to Thurmond and Wright, and where Truman and Barkley were running as third party candidates.  They were also the states with the highest black populations and the fewest areas of Republican strength.

The FAR more likely scenario that would have thrown the election into the House would have been if California and Ohio had narrowly went to Dewey instead of Truman.  California (25 EV) went to Truman by 0.44% and Ohio went for Truman 0.24%.  This would have resulted in a 242 (D) to 239 (R) to 50 (Dixiecrat) in the EC.

The Democratic Party was such at that time that the Southerners would have been motivated to make a deal to re-elect Truman.  They were not in a strong position after the 1948 elections, and Dewey was not a Republican candidate that was appealing to Southerners.  It's certainly possible that the Dixiecrats would have bolted to Dewey, but they wouldn't have enjoyed it and Dewey wasn't the kind of Republican that would lead Southern Democrats to leave the Democratic fold.

It should be noted that Dewey didn't campaign in the South.  Four years later Dwight Eisenhower actively campaigned in the South and won VA, TN, FL, and TX.  I do think that if Dewey had campaigned in VA, TN, and possibly TX, he may have carried those states, but he didn't do that.
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2020, 11:01:25 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2020, 08:04:15 AM by Kalwejt »



The only state that might have gone to the Dixiecrats was Georgia.

Keep in mind that the states that supported Thurmond and Wright were states whose DEMOCRATIC electors were pledged to Thurmond and Wright, and where Truman and Barkley were running as third party candidates.  They were also the states with the highest black populations and the fewest areas of Republican strength.

The FAR more likely scenario that would have thrown the election into the House would have been if California and Ohio had narrowly went to Dewey instead of Truman.  California (25 EV) went to Truman by 0.44% and Ohio went for Truman 0.24%.  This would have resulted in a 242 (D) to 239 (R) to 50 (Dixiecrat) in the EC.

The Democratic Party was such at that time that the Southerners would have been motivated to make a deal to re-elect Truman.  They were not in a strong position after the 1948 elections, and Dewey was not a Republican candidate that was appealing to Southerners.  It's certainly possible that the Dixiecrats would have bolted to Dewey, but they wouldn't have enjoyed it and Dewey wasn't the kind of Republican that would lead Southern Democrats to leave the Democratic fold.

It should be noted that Dewey didn't campaign in the South.  Four years later Dwight Eisenhower actively campaigned in the South and won VA, TN, FL, and TX.  I do think that if Dewey had campaigned in VA, TN, and possibly TX, he may have carried those states, but he didn't do that.
I am not really sure about Texas (IIRC, Harry Truman win Texas by over 40%], but Thomas Dewey definitely had a chance to win Virginia, Tennessee, and possibly even Florida in 1948 (I know most polls at the time of the election showed him winning those states). Assuming that he won those states in addition to California (which was very close), then the 1948 election would have went to the House of Representatives.

I am not sure how the House of Representatives would have voted if the 1948 election was deadlocked due to the fact that Harry Truman and Thomas Dewey were both pro-civil rights. At the time, the only Republican who would have done well with the segregationist vote in the South was Douglas MacArthur (who was obviously not a candidate in 1948), as he was strongly opposed to the integration of the military and spoke out against African-American equality in general.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2020, 12:58:15 PM »

Guys, I know a more REALISTIC case would have been Dewey picking up California and Illinois. But those timelines have been beaten to death, revived to max health, and then beat to death again. A Thurmond expanded map has hardly ever been discussed. I wanted to discuss a world where Thurmond captured near monopoly of the South, and used virtually his entire block of land to make his point, rather than just a couple of states

Is it realistic? Probably not. But is it the starting point of this thread? Yes. So would you be willing to, at least for this thread pretend that something like this could have happened

And I will fight until the day I die that had things gotten better for him, he could have picked up the Democratic nomination in Arkansas and Georgia and won those ones at least. Florida, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee? Sure those may have been hard, but not Arkansas and Georgia, and if you try to say those couldn't happen, then I must respectfully disagree.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2020, 04:49:24 PM »

There's no real way the South is actually going to back Truman when they actually have a Southern, pro-segregation candidate to support, so Dewey wins in the House due to a split in the Democratic Party.

I don't think the Southern Senators would support Earl Warren for VP, so Alben Barkley probably still gets elected Vice President.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 12 queries.