IA-NYT/Siena: Sanders 25, Buttigieg 18, Biden 17, Warren 15, Klob 8

[Ebsy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/us/politics/democratic-iowa-poll-sanders.html

[McGarnagle]

Sanders plummets to first

[Eraserhead]

Feeling a lot better about my decision to stay up until 5 AM right about now...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie trails by massive -7 point margin

[Ebsy]

Feeling a lot better about my decision to stay up until 5 AM right about now...

Real goddamn poll watcher hours comrade.

[H. Ross Peron]

#TrendsAreReal. Multiple pollsters both nationally and key state-level contests all picking up enormous swings towards Sanders.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

When it is top 4 only>>>

Sanders 30%
Biden 23%
Butti 23%
Warren 19%

Mr. Sanders, however, has some of the most committed supporters in the race and, significantly, his advantage with Iowa Democrats does not ebb when the field is narrowed to only the top four candidates. The Vermont senator still leads by seven points in that scenario, according to the survey, capturing 30 percent of the vote while Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg both win 23 percent and Ms. Warren garners 19 percent.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I’m on my way to New Hampshire as we speak and this BEAUTIFUL poll drops?!  HOORAY!!!  The moderates are in full meltdown!

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Holy ****

[SnowLabrador]

As soon as I saw this poll, I was like the Kool-Aid man: "OHHHH YEAH!"

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, the young people stay home during the caucus and more older moderate/conservative rural folks are caucusing.

Enabling a Pete win.

Sanders is leading this poll, but trails Trump by 6.

Pete is doing the best against Trump of all candidates (-1).

[Queen Isuelt]

Hopefully, the young people stay home during the caucus and more older moderate/conservative rural folks are caucusing.

Enabling a Pete win.

Sanders is leading this poll, but trails Trump by 6.

Pete is doing the best against Trump of all candidates (-1).

This needs to stop! He has been dropping since the December debate.

The more people see of him the less people like him.
- He will say anything you want to hear to get your vote.
- He has no track record of winning. He’s a flat out conman He ran one race statewide and lost by 25pts. Joe Donnelly ran in 2010 and won his race and he ran for senate in 2012 and won. Pete tried to jump the queue.
- Petes national numbers haven’t moved up at all since being pushed by Hollywood and Bundlers in April.
- He spent a considerable amount of money in Iowa and it’s very likely Iowa will be the last place to find out that he’s a fraud. Tom Steyer can get 15% in Nevada and South Carolina, Pete did the same in Iowa. He just to clear the field by spending all his money here and it failed.
- Impeachment has saved him from a complete collapse because seasoned campaigners would be targeting his vote now. He’s not going to be President and he’s going to he like Beto soon - thinking what’s next in his career.

Trump will finish him so badly.

[bilaps]

Inject in my veins

[ElectionsGuy]

That's better than I would've imagined. +7 in Iowa, +12 in New Hampshire, I think we can say he is finally in a position to win.

[Podgy the Bear]

That's better than I would've imagined. +7 in Iowa, +12 in New Hampshire, I think we can say he is finally in a position to win.

To win what?  A nomination that will be as meaningless as 1972 or 1964?  This country won't stand for his Socialist policies, and he shows no indication that he will be flexible or will accommodate other views. 

[Tender Branson]

Pete takes the lead if non-viable candidates are dropping out in later rounds of the caucus:

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/IADem0120_4891051654159.pdf

Also, Sanders could have a massive problem if younger people under 44 are not turning out.

He’s only at 9% with those over 65 ...

[Senator Spark]

My goodness

[bilaps]

That's better than I would've imagined. +7 in Iowa, +12 in New Hampshire, I think we can say he is finally in a position to win.

To win what?  A nomination that will be as meaningless as 1972 or 1964?  This country won't stand for his Socialist policies, and he shows no indication that he will be flexible or will accommodate other views. 

Cry me a river

[ElectionsGuy]

That's better than I would've imagined. +7 in Iowa, +12 in New Hampshire, I think we can say he is finally in a position to win.

To win what?  A nomination that will be as meaningless as 1972 or 1964?  This country won't stand for his Socialist policies, and he shows no indication that he will be flexible or will accommodate other views.  

Be careful, Donald Trump was supposed to be Barry Goldwater 2.0. There is a yearning for populist FDR style politics in the left-leaning working class but most people who just assume he's unelectable because SOCIALISM!!! do not understand the appeal and vastly underestimate his abilities. I mean, why did he poll better than Hillary in 2016 and pretty much on par with Biden now in GE matchups.

I'm not even saying he will win, and I'm not speaking as a Sanders supporter, but if you want to repeat the same strategy that lost the election for Democrats in 2016, run Joe Biden, and hope that some circumstances will be different this time to put him over the top. Or, choose Sanders, and play by a whole new rulebook and maybe you might just win. Maybe, the DC consultant/strategist way of thinking about electability is totally wrong! But we won't know if the Dems keep nominating the same old establishment duds.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Feel the Bern baby!

[bilaps]

Pete takes the lead if non-viable candidates are dropping out in later rounds of the caucus:

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/IADem0120_4891051654159.pdf

Also, Sanders could have a massive problem if younger people under 44 are not turning out.

He’s only at 9% with those over 65 ...

No, you're reading this wrong. He doesn't take the lead in overall poll, it's just a poll of other candidates' preferred choice among top 4. And it's essentialy a 3 way tie even among them.

Also, some other notes from this poll..

48% of Warren's supporters say their mind isn't made up yet and 44% say their second choice is Bernie

This poll has 29% of first time caucus goers in its sample. To remind you DMR poll had a 27% and Monmouth had it at 17%. In 2016 number was 44%. Big turnout benefits Bernie a lot.

Bernie leads every age group even 45-64 except 65+

[Tender Branson]

Let’s all hope Klobuchar is not viable in the caucus and her supporters move to the Pete corners of the room ...

[Cinemark]

Let’s all hope Klobuchar is not viable in the caucus and her supporters move to the Pete corners of the room ...

The poll shows Klobuchar voter's move to Biden and Warren.