International COVID-19 Megathread

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

this are all ICU patients? including no Covid?

No, it's all COVID-related. "p.g.a. COVID-19" = "per grund av COVID-19" = "due to COVID-19"

so the graph miss the non covid patients in ICU

Yes, but the number of non-COVID patients in the ICU in Sweden is likely pretty low. I can try to find that number as well. But as you can see, total ICU capacity is more than twice the number of COVID-19 related ICU cases, so we're still nowhere near being overwhelmed.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Franco, if you are quoting someone with graphs and you are directly beneath them, you dont need to keep their images. You can delete them from the quote. It saves loading times and keeps the thread cleaner.

And in a bold move for 2020, you dont need to quote them at all as you are directly beneath their post so it is obvious what you are referencing.

[FrancoAgo]

sometimes meanwhile i write there is a new post

[DINGO Joe]

Big drop in UK deaths today, likely to be the "weekend effect" again but still encouraging.

Until the UK figures out how to account for home deaths it'll be hard to get a true picture

[DINGO Joe]

this are all ICU patients? including no Covid?

No, it's all COVID-related. "p.g.a. COVID-19" = "per grund av COVID-19" = "due to COVID-19"

so the graph miss the non covid patients in ICU

Yes, but the number of non-COVID patients in the ICU in Sweden is likely pretty low. I can try to find that number as well. But as you can see, total ICU capacity is more than twice the number of COVID-19 related ICU cases, so we're still nowhere near being overwhelmed.

I've seen multiple articles talking about the absence of non-COVID ICU patients.  People with heart, appendix and other issues are apparently avoiding going to the ER, quite likely to their detriment.

[Tender Branson]

Tyrol, the „ground zero“ of infections in Austria (ski resorts) has not seen a single new case in the past 24 hours.

https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3044810

Also, the state of Carinthia has not seen any new infections for 3 days now.

[T'Chenka]

My very small apartment building has only 6 units, amd one of those is for storage. Out of the 4 that aren't storage, last night one had a veruy small social gathering, one may or may not have had a guest over, and the third apartment had a guest over that then proceeded to visit the fourth apartment.

Canada is more culturally American than I ever cared to admit. Our stupidity and narcissism is unacceptably high
 Our prime minister needs to go on TV, out hus political career second and his country first, and tel these traitors in no uncertain terms that they will stop or they will be forced to stop. We haven't even flattened our curve yet.

[Helsinkian]

World's leading tennis player is an anti-vaxxer: "Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn't want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel".

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1252194068035182594

[Pulaski]

World's leading tennis player is an anti-vaxxer: "Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn't want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel".

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1252194068035182594

Well tough titties Novak, looks like you won't break Federer's record after all.

[rosin]

Wow - it looks like things are very much going the wrong way in Singapore!

According to worldometer has 1426 new cases been reported today, an increase of cases of more than 21%(!).

From what I have read, this "second wave" is mainly among migrant workers, who are legally forced to live very cramped together, in ways where social distancing simply isn't possible.

And thereby we arrive again at the sad truth: diseases highlighting social inequalities (in one of the world's richest countries).

[Meclazine for Israel]

Wow - it looks like things are very much going the wrong way in Singapore!

According to worldometer has 1426 new cases been reported today, an increase of cases of more than 21%(!).

From what I have read, this "second wave" is mainly among migrant workers, who are legally forced to live very cramped together, in ways where social distancing simply isn't possible.

And thereby we arrive again at the sad truth: diseases highlighting social unequalities (in one of the world's richest countries).

Migrant workers returning to Singapore due to the travel restrictions.

This virus loves circultating in planes, airports and cruise ships.

[CumbrianLefty]

Big drop in UK deaths today, likely to be the "weekend effect" again but still encouraging.

Until the UK figures out how to account for home deaths it'll be hard to get a true picture

That's true of most countries, though?

A real and consistent drop in hospital deaths still means something IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

World's leading tennis player is an anti-vaxxer: "Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn't want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel".

No surprise there; he has always been a massive, massive crank.

[Lord Halifax]

World's leading tennis player is an anti-vaxxer: "Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn't want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel".

Hopefully this will end his career.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's true of most countries, though?

A real and consistent drop in hospital deaths still means something IMO.

It's the case with the statistics from basically all countries, yes.

[parochial boy]

The UK is still pretty unique in that it only reports hospital deaths though. 40-50% of deaths in Belgium, France and Switzerland were non-hospitalised. The first two have been catching up from pervious underporting, and Switzerland records any instance where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate - even without a test. It's harder to tell with other countries, but it seems that Italy and Spain are showing similar proportions. The latter two, and Germany, in particular are probably undercounting quite a bit as they more-or-less require a positive test for a death to be counted, and Germany's testing is pretty complete it would seem. So even then the UK's numbers are going to be particularly fictional relative to the rest of the continent.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm ...

A brand-new release by STATISTICS Austria 🇦🇹 today shows that there could be significantly more deaths due to Coronavirus than reported by the government.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/122945.html

Here’s why:

The government (health ministry/interior ministry) track daily deaths of people infected with Coronavirus in hospitals and nursing homes ONLY.

Statistics Austria on the other hand has basically live data on deaths from every Austrian town on a weekly basis - using the central population register.

Weekly deaths showed no statistical anomalies until March 16 (when infections spiked up and the curfew was introduced).

In the 3 weeks after March 16 (to April 5th), weekly deaths in all Austrian towns increased by more than 10% compared with the same weekly average during 2016-2019 !

Between March 16 and April 5th, the government announced around 200 COVID deaths in hospitals and nursing homes, but the data from Statistics Austria had deaths in all of Austria increasing by 580 compared to the same period in 2016-2019 ...

This could mean 2 things:

* an underreporting of COVID deaths happening at home, rather than at the hospital/nursing home

* a statistical anomaly: nobody knows the cause of death of those surplus deaths, so there could simply be more deaths because of other illnesses at home

[CumbrianLefty]

And its "only" about 450 deaths today for the UK, almost too good to be true by recent standards.

The next few figures are going to be crunch time, I think. If they confirm this recent trend, then at least an easing of lockdown measures a few weeks from now has to be a possibility.

[President Johnson]

It hasn't been confirmed yet, but all signs are pointing into the direction the Munich Oktoberfest, scheduled from late September into October, will be cancelled this fall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It hasn't been confirmed yet, but all signs are pointing into the direction the Munich Oktoberfest, scheduled from late September into October, will be cancelled this fall.

Wow.
You can be completely certain the Germans are serious about something like this when Oktoberfest of all things is cancelled.

[palandio]

Hmm ...

A brand-new release by STATISTICS Austria 🇦🇹 today shows that there could be significantly more deaths due to Coronavirus than reported by the government.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/122945.html

Here’s why:

The government (health ministry/interior ministry) track daily deaths of people infected with Coronavirus in hospitals and nursing homes ONLY.

Statistics Austria on the other hand has basically live data on deaths from every Austrian town on a weekly basis - using the central population register.

Weekly deaths showed no statistical anomalies until March 16 (when infections spiked up and the curfew was introduced).

In the 3 weeks after March 16 (to April 5th), weekly deaths in all Austrian towns increased by more than 10% compared with the same weekly average during 2016-2019 !

Between March 16 and April 5th, the government announced around 200 COVID deaths in hospitals and nursing homes, but the data from Statistics Austria had deaths in all of Austria increasing by 580 compared to the same period in 2016-2019 ...

This could mean 2 things:

* an underreporting of COVID deaths happening at home, rather than at the hospital/nursing home

* a statistical anomaly: nobody knows the cause of death of those surplus deaths, so there could simply be more deaths because of other illnesses at home

It could mean a lot of other things as well:
* Because of COVID-19, people with other issues avoid calling the doctor/hospital, or the hospitals don't take them even if it is medically necessary
* Stress, isolation, boredom, etc. resulting in medical problems
* ...

[Meclazine for Israel]

First up, thoughts and prayers to Texasgurl for her loss affected by the Corona-virus. That puts in perspective what we are dealing with here.

Latest numbers from Europe and USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 20 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 81,163 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 27,000

I would be calling the peak of the UK Corona-virus pandemic April 19 2020.


France



France 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 55,200

France moves down the graph.


Germany



Germany 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 13,400


Spain



Spain 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 43,900

Spain shares many similarities with Germany, except greater cases. As a result, it will be interesting to see if both countries shared the onset date and the peak date whether they will recede at the same rate and end up getting to 10% of peak active cases on the same date.


Italy



Italy 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 88,000

Just waiting for Italy to update it's recoveries.


USA



USA 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 490,117 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 192,000

USA according to this data has peaked in Active Cases two days ago at 490,000 Active Cases. We should start to see a big decrease from now on.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

A vaccine for COVID-19?

We need to be prepared for the eventuality of never having one.

Professor Ian Frazer explains:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

[Tender Branson]

Austria’s ministers donate pay to fight coronavirus

VIENNA, Austria — The Austrian government said Monday that ministers would forgo a month’s net salary as a sign of solidarity with those who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic.


Source: APA, Helmut Fohringer

“Millions of people are having to tighten their belts or are facing financial difficulty,” said Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

“In this difficult time, we want to send a signal of solidarity,” Kurz said, explaining that the ministers’ salaries would be donated to organizations involved in the fight against COVID-19, without providing further details.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austria-ministers-donate-pay-to-fight-coronavirus

[Tender Branson]

Big number of deaths here yesterday: +21 (usually around 10-15 every day).

And that comes as hospitalisations dropped to new lows (~750) down from a peak of 1.250 a few weeks ago.

ICU-care: 196 people (down from a peak of 270 a few weeks ago).