International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

178 new cases here until 8am.

Just a matter of time until Kurz re-introduces the mandatory mask-wearing in shops etc.

Kurz will make a decision tomorrow:

https://orf.at/stories/3174039

Signs are pointing towards re-introduction of mask-wearing everywhere in public.

In public means in busses/trains and stores? Wearing a mask for a walk in the woods or bike tour obviously makes little sense.

[Tender Branson]

178 new cases here until 8am.

Just a matter of time until Kurz re-introduces the mandatory mask-wearing in shops etc.

Kurz will make a decision tomorrow:

https://orf.at/stories/3174039

Signs are pointing towards re-introduction of mask-wearing everywhere in public.

In public means in busses/trains and stores? Wearing a mask for a walk in the woods or bike tour obviously makes little sense.

Currently, we have mandatory mask-wearing in all public transportation, medical areas such as all hospitals, doctors, rehabilitation centers or pharmacies and at municipal offices.

But not any longer in stores and restaurants or hotels.

This could be re-introduced.

Mask-wearing for bike tours or for hiking was never a thing, not even during the lockdown.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Japan having a 2nd wave.

India is off to the races.

South Africa is going bezerk. It's not coming out of that population for a long time.

And Sweden heading rapidly towards 0 daily cases and hence 0 daily deaths.

Australia is now heading towards community transmission.

Remarkable how this has unfolded.

[Silent Hunter]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

[CumbrianLefty]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

There still isn't any really reliable way of getting a reasonably accurate take on that tho.

[Alcibiades]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

Yes - there was a paper out recently which modelled this and got the 20% figure. It is possible a significant proportion of people have T-cells from previous viruses; countries which have had bad flu seasons recently have had lower Covid death rates.

[President Johnson]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

The issue with herd immunity is that even if you accept about 1% dying from an infection, there isn't enough data on long term effects of the disease. Cured doesn't automatically mean healthy again. There are reports from younger people with no pre-existing condition having breathing trouble months later as well as studies that show the disease can cause heart and brain issues. Also, herd immunity only works if immunity lasts for at least a year or so, and there are some indications just a certain percentage of patients are immune for a longer period of time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

Yes - there was a paper out recently which modelled this and got the 20% figure. It is possible a significant proportion of people have T-cells from previous viruses; countries which have had bad flu seasons recently have had lower Covid death rates.

Maybe that is why Vietnam and China deaths are ridiculously low.

We will learn the truth from good science in 5 years time.

[Pericles]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

The issue with herd immunity is that even if you accept about 1% dying from an infection, there isn't enough data on long term effects of the disease. Cured doesn't automatically mean healthy again. There are reports from younger people with no pre-existing condition having breathing trouble months later as well as studies that show the disease can cause heart and brain issues. Also, herd immunity only works if immunity lasts for at least a year or so, and there are some indications just a certain percentage of patients are immune for a longer period of time.

Yeah, the best solution was to eliminate community transmission with a hard and early lockdown and closed borders like NZ did, and then wait for a vaccine or treatment while the science becomes clearer. The risk there of overestimating the virus' dangers are less than the risk of it having turned out that the dangers were underestimated. Indeed, even the standard fatality rate estimates result in far too much loss of life to be acceptable to any responsible government. The second-best option, where elimination is not possible, is to suppress the virus to limited transmission and cope with social distancing restrictions until a vaccine or treatment arrives.

[CumbrianLefty]

Many lockdown sceptics say the best way to deal with the virus is to "protect the vulnerable". Fine, but how do you actually *do* that sucessfully in practice? Nobody yet seems to have managed it.

[Tender Branson]

I tested negative for COVID-19 antibodies.

LABORERGEBNIS

NEGATIVER BEFUND

INTERPRETATION

Die analysierte Probe wurde negativ auf IgM und IgG-Antikörper gegen das Coronavirus SARS CoV-2 getestet. Es konnte keine akute oder zurückliegende SARS-CoV-2-Infektion nachgewiesen werden. Bitte beachten Sie, dass diese Analyse einigen Limitationen unterliegt.

I paid for the test myself, sent in a blood sample last week and got the results today.

I was just interested and thought that I actually had the virus back in late March, but apparently not.

[Mr. Illini]

Scandanavian countries, the Netherlands, and Austria are pushing to limit the size of EU COVID relief and are pushing for democratic reform guarantees, mostly for Poland and Hungary, which is creating tension

https://apnews.com/ac0ed55e49e362593dfe4081f9d84622

I wish the EU would get tougher on those countries, but holding COVID relief funds hostage over it is probably not the best approach.

[Tender Branson]

Scandanavian countries, the Netherlands, and Austria are pushing to limit the size of EU COVID relief and are pushing for democratic reform guarantees, mostly for Poland and Hungary, which is creating tension

https://apnews.com/ac0ed55e49e362593dfe4081f9d84622

I wish the EU would get tougher on those countries, but holding COVID relief funds hostage over it is probably not the best approach.

Kurz looks as if he's got 120kg:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, this is encouraging news.

[Alcibiades]

I tested negative for COVID-19 antibodies.

LABORERGEBNIS

NEGATIVER BEFUND

INTERPRETATION

Die analysierte Probe wurde negativ auf IgM und IgG-Antikörper gegen das Coronavirus SARS CoV-2 getestet. Es konnte keine akute oder zurückliegende SARS-CoV-2-Infektion nachgewiesen werden. Bitte beachten Sie, dass diese Analyse einigen Limitationen unterliegt.

I paid for the test myself, sent in a blood sample last week and got the results today.

I was just interested and thought that I actually had the virus back in late March, but apparently not.

It is still very possible you had coronavirus in March, because:

a) Antibodies may disappear quite quickly.
b) Not everybody necessarily fights off coronavirus with antibodies. It is possible some do not need to produce them because they already have T cells.

[President Johnson]

Well, this is encouraging news.

Yes, probably the closest we are for a vaccine at this point. I hope tests can quickly go through and a vaccine get ready for production earlier next year.

There are also reports that one of two major German companies has entered a new phase in testing for a vaccine as well. Worldwide, there are about 150 different vaccine candidates. A German virologue today said it would be "extreme bad luck" if neither worked. I believe that we will probably end up with more than one vaccine, designed for different demographics or even different virus types as the virus has diversified on its route across the globe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A quick update on Italian statistics. Putting up just the national chart because collecting the regional statistics is a pain in the ass.

National totals, linear scale (cropping the cured patients off the chart to show the more important patterns):


Deaths
ICU
Other Hospitalized
Isolated Home
Cured

Basically, the total number of active cases has continued to fall throughout the first half of the month, but now finally seems to have bottomed out. Since 07/15, it's been steady around 12.5K (that's about the figures we had on 03/12, shortly after the lockdown was imposed, but of course testing was very limited back then, so the true figures were probably much higher). Hospitalizations are back to their 03/01 levels, a very easily manageable level. And there are now less than 50 patients in ICUs.

We continue to have around 10-15 deaths every day on average, and the total death toll has just crossed the symbolic 35K bar. It will probably take a while before it stops completely, but we're on the right track. And the stability in the total dead+sick count below 50K indicates that there isn't much potential for growth.

Unless the Italian government screws something up badly (always a possibility, of course), the health crisis is over in Italy. Now, the economic crisis has only just begun, and to solve it we're at the mercy of shortsighted, sociopathic Northern European leaders, so that's a whole new game...

[Tender Branson]

Austria to re-introduce mandatory mask-wearing in supermarkets, banks and post offices - starting on Friday:

https://orf.at/stories/3174428

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg now has 58 actively infected persons again as of today.

It was once as low as 2.

The number of cases has dropped a bit in the last days though from the mid-60s.

There are now active cases in all 6 districts again, while in early June only one district still had active cases.

[Tender Branson]

A 49-year old Carinthia woman of Bosnian origin was sentenced to 6 months in prison and a fine of 800€ today for going to a bank located at a mall, during her mandated quarantine at home when she was infected with the Coronavirus.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3058913

The woman pleaded guilty and the judge wanted to set an example for others in quarantine with the harsh penalty.

[President Johnson]

A 49-year old Carinthia woman of Bosnian origin was sentenced to 6 months in prison and a fine of 800€ today for going to a bank located at a mall, during her mandated quarantine at home when she was infected with the Coronavirus.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3058913

The woman pleaded guilty and the judge wanted to set an example for others in quarantine with the harsh penalty.

Absolutely justified. I don't know why some people just are unable to ask family members, friends or neighbors to buy stuff for them. Even if you don't have said people in the region or if they're in quarantine as well, there are local volunteers who offer help for quarantined people. We have a volunteer network in the housing complex as well was handbills on the streets from young folks offering help. And banking can actually be done from home. All you need is internet access and a computer. I would have some understanding for people just getting out for a lone walk in the woods, but this is unacceptable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Administrative Court of Berlin has ruled that visiting Dominatrixes should be allowed again, provided that no actual sexual intercourse occurs. Regular prostitution that includes intercourse remains banned under the anti-Coronavirus provisions.

[Tender Branson]

The Administrative Court of Berlin has ruled that visiting Dominatrixes should be allowed again, provided that no actual sexual intercourse occurs. Regular prostitution that includes intercourse remains banned under the anti-Coronavirus provisions.

Really ?

Prostitution is legal again here since July 1:

https://orf.at/stories/3170997

Because sex workers are often self-employed, they were hit pretty hard financially and were able to get state aid to compensate for financial losses, like regular self-employed or start-ups.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Personal support for/compliance with mask-wearing and physical distancing in Germany, across parties:





The low numbers among FDP supporters is probably due to "libertarianism", in case of the AfD it's a general anti-establishment/anti-mainstream sentiment coupled with a affinity for conspiracy theories (the mainstream media and the government who let all those refugees in are lying to us, just as they're lying about climate change, COVID-19 was never dangerous, mandatory mask-wearing = dictatorship etc.).

[CumbrianLefty]

Would you say AfD scores higher than average for anti-vaxxers as well?