International COVID-19 Megathread

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The far-left party PVDA gives 140.000 euro to corona crisis. The 34 parliamentary members give 50% of their wages to the corona crisis and make calls to other parties to do the same. No-one reacted. Social Democrats called the proposal populist. The far-left party PVDA argues that in Bulgaria all political families do the same. Political expert Carl Devos said that no-one of the establishment parties would agree as they would admit that politicians earn too much money, and that no-one wanted the PVDA to win on this issue.

The far-left party said they help wherever possible and that their organization: "Healthcare for Everyone" is testing people for free in rest homes where 2/3rd of casualties are concentrated". They've said that now is not the time to criticize the establishment, but to follow and respect the draconic measures and stay at home, and that their main mission is to save as many people. They also propose a one-time corona tax for the super rich.

[GlobeSoc]

The far-left party PVDA gives 140.000 euro to corona crisis. The 34 parliamentary members give 50% of their wages to the corona crisis and make calls to other parties to do the same. No-one reacted. Social Democrats called the proposal populist. The far-left party PVDA argues that in Bulgaria all political families do the same. Political expert Carl Devos said that no-one of the establishment parties would agree as they would admit that politicians earn too much money, and that no-one wanted the PVDA to win on this issue.

The far-left party said they help wherever possible and that their organization: "Healthcare for Everyone" is testing people for free in rest homes where 2/3rd of casualties are concentrated". They've said that now is not the time to criticize the establishment, but to follow and respect the draconic measures and stay at home, and that their main mission is to save as many people. They also propose a one-time corona tax for the super rich.

I swear to God I love the pvda they are amazing

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Unsourced image removed

Cuba is highly respected for the international medical brigades that assist the health services of Italy and Andorra even in Europe. But the island itself is also confronted with COVID-19. The first infection was detected on March 11: an Italian tourist in the busy town of Trinidad.

More than three weeks later (April 3, 2020), 233 patients with the coronavirus Covid-19 / SARS-CoV-2 were infected in Cuba. Unfortunately, six of them died. 2,742 people are in hospital for observation and another 26,000 people are monitored at home from primary health care.

One of the best developed public health systems
The corona crisis is not tackled in a vacuum, but within the political and social context of each country. The Cuban context is quite unique. Socialist Cuba has one of the best developed public health systems in the world. That with a gross domestic product (GDP) that is 10 times lower than that of Belgium. About 30% of the national budget goes to health expenditure. By comparison, this is about 13% in Belgium.

It is this preventive health system, which draws on the mass participation of the population, that better prepares Cuba for the fight against Covid-19
All health indicators in Cuba are at EU level, far above the values ​​in the US. This is because the focus is mainly on prevention and primary health care. For example, diseases are combated preventively and it also costs health care less money. It is this preventive health system, which draws on the mass participation of the population, that better prepares Cuba - much more so than other countries - for the fight against Covid-19.

Of course, Cuba also faces major challenges, if only because it is a venomous virus. But also because of the economic impact of the stricter US sanctions against the island. “The Sars-CoV-2 virus is one of the greatest challenges for humanity in our history. But Cuba is facing it as the blockade places huge economic and financial constraints on our country, ”said José Angel Portal Miranda, Cuban health minister.

Tracing and isolation
The Cuban approach is different from the Belgian one. Tracing and isolation are central, and this with limited testing capacity. Cuban health services want to cut all chains of infection immediately. Suspicious cases are being tested. With a positive test, that individual is completely isolated and the entire network is mapped (contact tracing), so that possible other infections can also be tested and isolated.

People with moderate symptoms that may indicate contamination are immediately hospitalized and cared for. There is no waiting for a test to determine whether they are infected or not. A much larger group of people without or with mild symptoms - today more than 26,000 people - are under daily medical supervision in home isolation or in recently established isolation centers. This is because they have had contact with suspicious cases, because they have just returned from abroad or because the health services have screened them as "potentially infected".

Still, Cuba has limited testing capacity. The tests cost money, the reagents (chemicals) must be sufficiently available, as well as test material such as swabs. Due to the economic and financial blockade from the United States, this is not evident for Cuban health services. A large shipment of test kits and protective equipment from China could not be delivered to Cuba. This is because the transport company in the US wanted to avoid fines for going against US legislation about the blockade.

Well prepared
Since January, at the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, a prevention plan has been developed. Special “hearings” were organized in all neighborhoods, companies and committees. It was the social organizations, such as the union division, the women's organization or the neighborhood committees that organized these information meetings. Cuba strongly counts on the full participation of the Cuban people. Since the internet has become more accessible, Cubans have also been sold on their smartphones. That is why Cuba developed a Covid-19 app full of medical information and updates.

Crucial was also the education and training of all health workers in the country, from neighborhood practices to outpatient clinics and general hospitals to specialized reference hospitals. In Cuba there are two renowned tropical institutes active, which immediately got under way to centralize all information about Covid-19.

Since February, the outpatient clinics and hospitals have set up separate consultation rooms, isolation rooms and separate waiting rooms and outside doors for patients with respiratory problems, so that they do not cross the other patients. All these measures have not only been decided but already implemented before the first positive cases surfaced.

A lot of home visits
Cuba has one doctor for every 150 people. The neighborhood health centers with general practitioners and nurses form the heart of healthcare. These doctors and nurses live in the district or village and know the people they care for. Cuba prides itself on knowing the detailed health of the entire population. There is an enormous amount of statistical material available, not only from the people who frequently have health problems but also from the healthy population. All Cubans receive a preventive check-up several times a year from the family doctor, who works in the health post in his / her neighborhood.

This approach, which focuses on prevention, already provides a solid basis for dealing with extraordinary situations. It is the same network of health workers who proactively screen the population that is now being used en masse to detect corona infections. Cuban health services have their "most vulnerable" populations and can therefore work towards them more specifically.

The majority of patients now in home isolation have been identified in a large campaign of home visits. They have one goal: not to wait for people to come to health care, but to consciously look for infected persons and detect them in time.

The local health workers are assisted by 28,000 medical students, social workers and militants from the women's federation, youth organizations and neighborhood committees. They go from door to door, make no physical contact and keep a sufficient distance. They go through a questionnaire and ask how you are doing. If someone has a dry cough or fever, this is immediately passed on to the health post. Because many Cubans have already had a "white coat" at the front door several times, this also takes away their fears.

The home visits are repeated daily as much as possible. In addition to proactively detecting health problems, they also serve to support all Cubans, especially the vulnerable groups. For example, help can be offered with groceries. These home visits have so far reached nine million people, some three-quarters of the Cuban population.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

More than 27,000 violations of corona measures in Belgium, especially among youngsters. Everyone who violates the quarantine measures, gets a fine of 250 euros (which is ridicilously high, too high). On Facebook, i've seen lots of post of what it is now to live in an opressive police state. I think minister De Crem (CD&V) who enforces those fines, is becoming very unpopular. I wished the youth was more responsible.

Meanwhile I see a N-VA ad, where they say: "Resting on a seat, sorry, i'm not going to enforce it".

[Tirnam]

The lockdown in France will end on May 11, with schools and businesses reopening progressively.

[Bismarck]

Cuba is highly respected for the international medical brigades that assist the health services of Italy and Andorra even in Europe. But the island itself is also confronted with COVID-19. The first infection was detected on March 11: an Italian tourist in the busy town of Trinidad.

More than three weeks later (April 3, 2020), 233 patients with the coronavirus Covid-19 / SARS-CoV-2 were infected in Cuba. Unfortunately, six of them died. 2,742 people are in hospital for observation and another 26,000 people are monitored at home from primary health care.

One of the best developed public health systems
The corona crisis is not tackled in a vacuum, but within the political and social context of each country. The Cuban context is quite unique. Socialist Cuba has one of the best developed public health systems in the world. That with a gross domestic product (GDP) that is 10 times lower than that of Belgium. About 30% of the national budget goes to health expenditure. By comparison, this is about 13% in Belgium.

It is this preventive health system, which draws on the mass participation of the population, that better prepares Cuba for the fight against Covid-19
All health indicators in Cuba are at EU level, far above the values ​​in the US. This is because the focus is mainly on prevention and primary health care. For example, diseases are combated preventively and it also costs health care less money. It is this preventive health system, which draws on the mass participation of the population, that better prepares Cuba - much more so than other countries - for the fight against Covid-19.

Of course, Cuba also faces major challenges, if only because it is a venomous virus. But also because of the economic impact of the stricter US sanctions against the island. “The Sars-CoV-2 virus is one of the greatest challenges for humanity in our history. But Cuba is facing it as the blockade places huge economic and financial constraints on our country, ”said José Angel Portal Miranda, Cuban health minister.

Tracing and isolation
The Cuban approach is different from the Belgian one. Tracing and isolation are central, and this with limited testing capacity. Cuban health services want to cut all chains of infection immediately. Suspicious cases are being tested. With a positive test, that individual is completely isolated and the entire network is mapped (contact tracing), so that possible other infections can also be tested and isolated.

People with moderate symptoms that may indicate contamination are immediately hospitalized and cared for. There is no waiting for a test to determine whether they are infected or not. A much larger group of people without or with mild symptoms - today more than 26,000 people - are under daily medical supervision in home isolation or in recently established isolation centers. This is because they have had contact with suspicious cases, because they have just returned from abroad or because the health services have screened them as "potentially infected".

Still, Cuba has limited testing capacity. The tests cost money, the reagents (chemicals) must be sufficiently available, as well as test material such as swabs. Due to the economic and financial blockade from the United States, this is not evident for Cuban health services. A large shipment of test kits and protective equipment from China could not be delivered to Cuba. This is because the transport company in the US wanted to avoid fines for going against US legislation about the blockade.

Well prepared
Since January, at the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, a prevention plan has been developed. Special “hearings” were organized in all neighborhoods, companies and committees. It was the social organizations, such as the union division, the women's organization or the neighborhood committees that organized these information meetings. Cuba strongly counts on the full participation of the Cuban people. Since the internet has become more accessible, Cubans have also been sold on their smartphones. That is why Cuba developed a Covid-19 app full of medical information and updates.

Crucial was also the education and training of all health workers in the country, from neighborhood practices to outpatient clinics and general hospitals to specialized reference hospitals. In Cuba there are two renowned tropical institutes active, which immediately got under way to centralize all information about Covid-19.

Since February, the outpatient clinics and hospitals have set up separate consultation rooms, isolation rooms and separate waiting rooms and outside doors for patients with respiratory problems, so that they do not cross the other patients. All these measures have not only been decided but already implemented before the first positive cases surfaced.

A lot of home visits
Cuba has one doctor for every 150 people. The neighborhood health centers with general practitioners and nurses form the heart of healthcare. These doctors and nurses live in the district or village and know the people they care for. Cuba prides itself on knowing the detailed health of the entire population. There is an enormous amount of statistical material available, not only from the people who frequently have health problems but also from the healthy population. All Cubans receive a preventive check-up several times a year from the family doctor, who works in the health post in his / her neighborhood.

This approach, which focuses on prevention, already provides a solid basis for dealing with extraordinary situations. It is the same network of health workers who proactively screen the population that is now being used en masse to detect corona infections. Cuban health services have their "most vulnerable" populations and can therefore work towards them more specifically.

The majority of patients now in home isolation have been identified in a large campaign of home visits. They have one goal: not to wait for people to come to health care, but to consciously look for infected persons and detect them in time.

The local health workers are assisted by 28,000 medical students, social workers and militants from the women's federation, youth organizations and neighborhood committees. They go from door to door, make no physical contact and keep a sufficient distance. They go through a questionnaire and ask how you are doing. If someone has a dry cough or fever, this is immediately passed on to the health post. Because many Cubans have already had a "white coat" at the front door several times, this also takes away their fears.

The home visits are repeated daily as much as possible. In addition to proactively detecting health problems, they also serve to support all Cubans, especially the vulnerable groups. For example, help can be offered with groceries. These home visits have so far reached nine million people, some three-quarters of the Cuban population.

Well thanks for the daily dose of communist propaganda. Anyone whose been to Cuba knows it’s a horrible place. Seems way poorer than Vietnam despite having 4x the per capita gdp. I’m pretty sure they inflate a lot of the their metrics. Like by not counting any infant mortality to boost their life expectancy.

[urutzizu]

The Chinese economic numbers seem to indicate that, at least there, a significantly faster recovery than expected is taking place, raising hopes that the same will go for Europe as we start opening up.

China: March, compared to the same month last year
Exports: -6.6% (Expectations by Economists per Reuters: At least -13%)
Imports: -0.9% (Expected: -9.5%)

China has (unlike Europe and NA) held off from implementing a massive government stimulus, or a wage subsidy system, so Domestic Consumption kept the pace regardless. And of course China was able to restart the economy significantly faster than Europe, not to mention the US, will. And Exports will be hit in April harder as those Economies tank.

Speaking of Stimulus, the Italian Government has refused the 39 Billion Euro Loans package that was negotiated. Five Stars apparently threatened to blow up the Coalition otherwise. Complete Idiots. Why would they say no to a 39 billion€ credit, with low interest and no conditions after working for low interest credits with no conditions for weeks? And doing it without even Consulting their Allies Sanchez and Macron? Populism has Italy by the balls and the entire country will suffer because of it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Chinese economic numbers seem to indicate that, at least there, a significantly faster recovery than expected is taking place, raising hopes that the same will go for Europe as we start opening up.

China: March, compared to the same month last year
Exports: -6.6% (Expectations by Economists per Reuters: At least -13%)
Imports: -0.9% (Expected: -9.5%)

China has (unlike Europe and NA) held off from implementing a massive government stimulus, or a wage subsidy system, so Domestic Consumption kept the pace regardless. And of course China was able to restart the economy significantly faster than Europe, not to mention the US, will. And Exports will be hit in April harder as those Economies tank.

Speaking of Stimulus, the Italian Government has refused the 39 Billion Euro Loans package that was negotiated. Five Stars apparently threatened to blow up the Coalition otherwise. Complete Idiots. Why would they say no to a 39 billion€ credit, with low interest and no conditions after working for low interest credits with no conditions for weeks? And doing it without even Consulting their Allies Sanchez and Macron? Populism has Italy by the balls and the entire country will suffer because of it.

Well thanks for the daily dose of communist propaganda. Anyone whose been to China knows it’s a horrible place. Seems way poorer than Vietnam despite having 4x the per capita gdp. I’m pretty sure they inflate a lot of the their metrics. Like by not counting any infant mortality to boost their life expectancy.

[FrancoAgo]

Back on the german study of 0.37% fatality rate, this one https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

they report in the first analysis the results from 500 people (not a statistical sample) of this 14% has the antibodies and 2% has the coronavirus, so in raw number 70 and 10, after they report a fatality rate of 0.37% so 0.296 deaths but this is very strange or there is a death in the sample or there is not
someones can clear this point?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australian numbers continue to decline. We are looking better than South Korea.

We have definitely benefited from an extended hot summer period into March/April.



Australian Active Cases - Peak was April 3 with 3491

370 recoveries added to chart.

With International travel out for the rest of the year, we should be ready to rock back into action in June. Scott Morrison will follow Donald Trumps lead for lifting any restrictions. The Australian Prime Minister followed his decisions on the way into the curve.

Will post up USA and Europe tomorrow morning (Australian time).

[Helsinkian]

Sweden had their first death on 11 March. Now they have 1,033 deaths.

In Finland we had our first death on 20 March. Now there are 64 deaths.

[Former President tack50]

Well thanks for the daily dose of communist propaganda. Anyone whose been to China knows it’s a horrible place. Seems way poorer than Vietnam despite having 4x the per capita gdp. I’m pretty sure they inflate a lot of the their metrics. Like by not counting any infant mortality to boost their life expectancy.

Is this now an Atlas meme or what?

Everybody knows China is a horrible place for many reasons. The economy is not one of them, and it is a country that is growing rapidly. While not first world by any means, it is a solidly middle income country.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If Cuba does a great job handling corona crisis, i'm going to say it as it is, and they send help & solidarity to other countries. I respect other people's opinions, but it's simply bs that they inflate their numbers. Cuba has many weaknesses, first and all, the lack of democratic institutions, but on healthcare, we could all learn from them.

[President Johnson]

Sweden had their first death on 11 March. Now they have 1,033 deaths.

In Finland we had our first death on 20 March. Now there are 64 deaths.

What's the average age of infected people? Obviously this is a huge deal. Germany has a low death toll by comparisan because the median age of patients is about 48. It's much higher in Italy.

[Helsinkian]

Sweden had their first death on 11 March. Now they have 1,033 deaths.

In Finland we had our first death on 20 March. Now there are 64 deaths.

What's the average age of infected people? Obviously this is a huge deal. Germany has a low death toll by comparisan because the median age of patients is about 48. It's much higher in Italy.

Finland does not release data on the patients' age. Not sure about Sweden.

[It’s so Joever]

The Chinese economic numbers seem to indicate that, at least there, a significantly faster recovery than expected is taking place, raising hopes that the same will go for Europe as we start opening up.

China: March, compared to the same month last year
Exports: -6.6% (Expectations by Economists per Reuters: At least -13%)
Imports: -0.9% (Expected: -9.5%)

China has (unlike Europe and NA) held off from implementing a massive government stimulus, or a wage subsidy system, so Domestic Consumption kept the pace regardless. And of course China was able to restart the economy significantly faster than Europe, not to mention the US, will. And Exports will be hit in April harder as those Economies tank.

Speaking of Stimulus, the Italian Government has refused the 39 Billion Euro Loans package that was negotiated. Five Stars apparently threatened to blow up the Coalition otherwise. Complete Idiots. Why would they say no to a 39 billion€ credit, with low interest and no conditions after working for low interest credits with no conditions for weeks? And doing it without even Consulting their Allies Sanchez and Macron? Populism has Italy by the balls and the entire country will suffer because of it.

China is almost certainly falsifying their economic data. Unlike viral data (which is harder to hide and easily can backfire on their own people) it would be a net-positive for them to falsify the data to look better. The EU and the US are a mess, but that doesn’t mean China is being truthful about their rapid economic and social recovery.

[It’s so Joever]

The Chinese economic numbers seem to indicate that, at least there, a significantly faster recovery than expected is taking place, raising hopes that the same will go for Europe as we start opening up.

China: March, compared to the same month last year
Exports: -6.6% (Expectations by Economists per Reuters: At least -13%)
Imports: -0.9% (Expected: -9.5%)

China has (unlike Europe and NA) held off from implementing a massive government stimulus, or a wage subsidy system, so Domestic Consumption kept the pace regardless. And of course China was able to restart the economy significantly faster than Europe, not to mention the US, will. And Exports will be hit in April harder as those Economies tank.

Speaking of Stimulus, the Italian Government has refused the 39 Billion Euro Loans package that was negotiated. Five Stars apparently threatened to blow up the Coalition otherwise. Complete Idiots. Why would they say no to a 39 billion€ credit, with low interest and no conditions after working for low interest credits with no conditions for weeks? And doing it without even Consulting their Allies Sanchez and Macron? Populism has Italy by the balls and the entire country will suffer because of it.

Well thanks for the daily dose of communist propaganda. Anyone whose been to China knows it’s a horrible place. Seems way poorer than Vietnam despite having 4x the per capita gdp. I’m pretty sure they inflate a lot of the their metrics. Like by not counting any infant mortality to boost their life expectancy.

China isn’t some 3rd World sh**thole like the WSJ wants people to believe.
Some of their data is obviously inflated, but they aren’t “poorer than Vietnam”.
Like the US, China does have a lot of economic diversity. Cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai are on par with many developed cities in numerous ways. Rural areas in China can be shoddy and rival third World conditions in some cases. Keep that in mind when comparing conditions. We don’t judge the US solely based on rural Mississippi where they don’t have running water, and the same applies to China.

[FrancoAgo]

China is almost certainly falsifying their economic data. Unlike viral data (which is harder to hide and easily can backfire on their own people) it would be a net-positive for them to falsify the data to look better. The EU and the US are a mess, but that doesn’t mean China is being truthful about their rapid economic and social recovery.

import export data are not easily falsifiable, your import is the export of someones and your export is the import someones

[urutzizu]

Back on the german study of 0.37% fatality rate, this one https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

they report in the first analysis the results from 500 people (not a statistical sample) of this 14% has the antibodies and 2% has the coronavirus, so in raw number 70 and 10, after they report a fatality rate of 0.37% so 0.296 deaths but this is very strange or there is a death in the sample or there is not
someones can clear this point?

I don't quite understand what they did here either but it seems like they calculated the CFR using the infection rates projected onto the entire population of Gangelt (bezogen auf die Gesamtzahl der Infizierten in der Gemeinde Gangelt beträgt mit den vorläufigen Daten aus dieser Studie ca. 0,37 %) and used the deaths from there and not from the Sample.

So: 15% Infektionen × 12.529 = 1.879 × 0,37% = 6,9
7 Deaths in Gangelt.

There has been alot of other Criticisms of the Study in Germany by Virologists as well, so I would take it with a pinch of salt:
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/covid-19-experten-kritik-an-studie-zur-corona-epidemie-in.2850.de.html?drn:news_id=1120107

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Sweden had their first death on 11 March. Now they have 1,033 deaths.

In Finland we had our first death on 20 March. Now there are 64 deaths.

What's the average age of infected people? Obviously this is a huge deal. Germany has a low death toll by comparisan because the median age of patients is about 48. It's much higher in Italy.

Finland does not release data on the patients' age. Not sure about Sweden.

In Sweden it skews very old, like 71 on average. A bunch of elderly homes were hit early on.

Anecdotally whenever I walk around or take the subway, elderly people really seem to be the ones who are not taking this seriously at all. Followed by teenagers. Everyone between 20 and 60 seems to be taking it seriously.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Angela Merkel and the minister-presidents of the sixteen states will hold a videoconference today to discuss the next steps.

However, an internal paper of the federal government has already been leaked beforehand. According to this paper, shops up to a size of 400 square meters could be allowed to open again on April 20. Businesses with a size up to 2,500 square meters would follow on May 4, as would hairdressers. Also extended until May 4 would be the "contact restrictions" which basically limit your social contacts to one person at a time in the public. Restaurants and bars would remain closed for the time being though.

It's still unclear whether there will be a consensus on the opening of schools, kindergartens, and universities. North Rhine-Westphalia wants to open its schools on April 20 again, while other states like Bavaria would want to wait a little while longer.

[Tender Branson]

Austria is a step further than Germany already.

Small shops are open since yesterday (with mask-wearing).

Today it was announced that Austria will also allow the Formula 1 race to take place in July (without visitors + the employees from the teams + drivers have to provide negative test results before the race).

Golf courses + track and field training + private aviation will be possible starting with May 1, as will shooting ranges - sports minister Kogler (Greens) announced.

[CumbrianLefty]

Watching how these staged removals of lockdown go is going to be fascinating.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest numbers from Europe and USA

UK



UK 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 86,490 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 10,400


France



France 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,212,942 – April 12
Recoveries added to curve – 5,500

France curve has new recoveries added which lowers the total slightly.


Germany



Germany 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,000


Spain



Spain 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 76,689 – April 7
Recoveries added to curve – 18,500


Italy



Italy 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,480 – March 29
Recoveries added to curve – 73,400


USA



USA 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,019 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 105,000

USA should start showing signs of lowering in Active Cases.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Tender Branson]

Austria: 393 deaths today (+9)

Germany: 3.500 (+300)

Yesterday was 3x more deadly in Germany than here and:

If you divide by 9, we have now the same number of deaths per capita.

Switzerland is more than twice as high, maybe even 3-times as high.