California trending R?

[Jamison5]

The polls by SurveyUSA in the past few months and also the CNN poll from this month seem to show California being a bit closer than last time, even considering that the polls overestimated Trump by almost 8 points in 2016 (probably because of illegal votes). The SurveyUSA national polls are to the left of the average while they show California going D by only ~15-25 points (Hillary won by 30). This could make the an electoral/popular split less likely and could affect the competetive House races there, like CA-48.

Are these polls too early or could they be a sign of a trend?

[Cinemark]

The polls by SurveyUSA in the past few months and also the CNN poll from this month seem to show California being a bit closer than last time, even considering that the polls overestimated Trump by almost 8 points in 2016 (probably because of illegal votes).

I stopped reading there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given how badly the GOP performed in 2016, trending R means nothing lol as it just means they have already hit rock bottom and have no where to go but back up

[Jamison5]

Given how badly the GOP performed in 2016, trending R means nothing lol as it just means they have already hit rock bottom and have no where to go but back up

I agree with that, but a trend is a trend. Do you think it's possible to take back a couple House seats in California if these polls are accurate? Maybe CA-10 or CA-48?

[Dr. Arch]

The polls by SurveyUSA in the past few months and also the CNN poll from this month seem to show California being a bit closer than last time, even considering that the polls overestimated Trump by almost 8 points in 2016 (probably because of illegal votes).

I stopped reading there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Did you sleep through 2016-2018?

[Ebsy]

Considering what happened with the House seats in 2018 I would say it probably isn't trending R in any meaningful way.

[It’s so Joever]

If trends progress as I think they will, CA will probably max out for the Democrats by 2030 and will slowly trend R afterwards. It wouldn’t matter though, CA statewide for now is gone for the Republicans barring some Roy Moore-esque  scenario.

[DrScholl]

If there were illegal votes, Trump would never have become President because Democrats would have put them in states that are not safe Democratic. Considering how insane and horrible Trump is, I wish someone had rigged the election against him.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yes, Trump should campaign there! It is even better to campaign there than in Virginia!

[cvparty]

Did you sleep through 2016-2018?

more illegal alien votes...duh

[Bidenworth2020]

CA polls tend to underestimate democrats, often significantly. Case in point--

[Ogre Mage]

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

[Skill and Chance]

Did you sleep through 2016-2018?

Cox did do significantly better than Clinton.  How much of that was just because of the top two system I don't know, but having all or almost all of the 2016 "other" vote in CA go to Trump would be significant.  The "other" vote nationwide was over 6% in 2016 vs. about 2% in 2012.  If ~2/3rds of that excess "other" vote goes to Trump in a runoff/IRV, he wins the PV.

Also, the 2018 Dem results in CA were certainly impressive, but I do believe most Dems running against Reps trailed the Clinton/Trump numbers. 

[LiberalDem19]

I mean, the GOP hit rock bottom so hard in recent years in CA, so it’s gonna trend a bit to the right since they can really go up, but it’s not gonna trend back to being competitive any time soon unless the Democrats do something to really piss off people

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gavin Newsom was considered a dead duck but he has recovered from the recall effort, Trump wont win Cali

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

CA polls tend to underestimate democrats, often significantly. Case in point--

they seem to be spot on for Rs though.

[krb08]

A lot of the time polling is less accurate in safe states, especially in California. Polling there strongly underestimated Clinton in 2016, and Newsom in 2018. So much so that WaPo and RCP actually had the nerve to race CA-GOV 2018 as Likely D, probably the most moronic race rating of last cycle. Maybe California could trend R? But not in any significant way.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Absolutely, Trump will win California by a landslide margin and it will be safe R!

[Mr. Smith]

Only if maxed out, but I don't see that happening for quite some time.

I'd sooner trust North Dakota or Wyoming to trend D first

[ProudModerate2]

... (probably because of illegal votes).

Do you mind explaining what you mean by this?
What are "illegal votes," who made them and how are they possible.

[538Electoral]

It won't be competitive any time soon.

[Gracile]

It's hard to accurately poll for states that are so overwhelmingly safe for one party. One shouldn't assume that these poll numbers mean anything as far as how a state is trending (and it's pretty laughable for anyone to use faulty polls a year out from the election as proof of that).

[SN2903]

California is irrelevant in 2020.

[eric82oslo]

I mean, the GOP hit rock bottom so hard in recent years in CA, so it’s gonna trend a bit to the right since they can really go up, but it’s not gonna trend back to being competitive any time soon unless the Democrats do something to really piss off people

There are many areas of California which still could trend a lot more Democratic. And probably will, at least some of them.