CNN/SSRS National Poll: Sanders +3

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him. Another Trump midterm in 2022 would allow Democrats to pick up more Senate seats anyway.

If I Keep Saying It It Must Be True!  screamed the moderate into the abyss...

Sanders would struggle to turn out black voters. Trump's Russian bot army is well prepared to flood social media with some of Sanders' more questionable statements on race and create doubt about him to keep black voters home.

Weird how Sanders' supposedly questionable statements on race never seem to materialize but will DEFINITELY cause him to lose support among black voters. And yet Biden's history of opposing busing, working with segregationists, and saying racially insensitive things never seems to matter.

Stay sweatin'.

When he lost primaries in the south last time he blamed it on the confederacy, he has said that class is a bigger issue than race

This is much less offensive than any number of things Biden has said about black people. Not to mention him being very proud of being close with literal segregationists.

Sadly, being Obama's Vice President is Biden's political N-word pass.

[We Live in Black and White]

Well this thread is, predictably, a steaming pile of s**t.

In any case, I'm glad someone has finally overtaken Biden. I'm no huge fan of Sanders, but we will absolutely, 100% lose if we nominate Biden. Need I remind everyone of Hillary's """huge leads"""?

[DrScholl]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him.

There is making a case in good faith that Sanders is not the most electable candidate.

And then there is descending into absurdities.

Like I said, the last three Democratic Presidents were from states with higher than average African-American populations. The biggest losers were from states below the nationwide average.

[bilaps]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him.

There is making a case in good faith that Sanders is not the most electable candidate.

And then there is descending into absurdities.

Like I said, the last three Democratic Presidents were from states with higher than average African-American populations. The biggest losers were from states below the nationwide average.

So, I guess Donald Trump is elected on a wave of afroamerican support from the state of New York

[We Live in Black and White]

Also:

non-white:
Sanders 30%
Biden 27%
Warren 16%
Yang 6%

No minority appeal my cowboy ass. If anything, Sanders appeals almost equally to nonwhite voters as he does to his white progressive base.

[DrScholl]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him.

There is making a case in good faith that Sanders is not the most electable candidate.

And then there is descending into absurdities.

Like I said, the last three Democratic Presidents were from states with higher than average African-American populations. The biggest losers were from states below the nationwide average.

So, I guess Donald Trump is elected on a wave of afroamerican support from the state of New York

It's silly to make that comparison, because Republicans and Democrats have different winning coalitions. No Democrat can win the presidency without turning out black voters.

[We Live in Black and White]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him.

There is making a case in good faith that Sanders is not the most electable candidate.

And then there is descending into absurdities.

Like I said, the last three Democratic Presidents were from states with higher than average African-American populations. The biggest losers were from states below the nationwide average.

So, I guess Donald Trump is elected on a wave of afroamerican support from the state of New York

It's silly to make that comparison, because Republicans and Democrats have different winning coalitions. No Democrat can win the presidency without turning out black voters.

Okay, I never thought I'd ever go to bat for Bernie the Egomaniac again, but seriously seriously seriously read the crosstabs. If this poll is to be believed, Sanders is beating Biden with nonwhite voters. Which is no huge surprise when you factor in the absurd s**t Biden has said about POC over the years.

[DrScholl]

Okay, I never thought I'd ever go to bat for Bernie the Egomaniac again, but seriously seriously seriously read the crosstabs. If this poll is to be believed, Sanders is beating Biden with nonwhite voters. Which is no huge surprise when you factor in the absurd s**t Biden has said about POC over the years.

I'm referring to black voters, not non-white voters as a whole. You should be intelligent enough to know that not all non-white voters vote the same in primaries. The black vote is quite clustered in the south and in a delegate game that makes a difference.

My point is about the general elections and the fact that Sanders' strategy is to try and win by winning back white working class voters. His team was talking about targeting the Dakotas and Oklahoma, which is absurd. He's not trying to win by running up black turnout in swing states, he's trying to win by winning over white voters in red states, which is utterly stupid.

[We Live in Black and White]

Okay, I never thought I'd ever go to bat for Bernie the Egomaniac again, but seriously seriously seriously read the crosstabs. If this poll is to be believed, Sanders is beating Biden with nonwhite voters. Which is no huge surprise when you factor in the absurd s**t Biden has said about POC over the years.

I'm referring to black voters, not non-white voters as a whole. You should be intelligent enough to know that not all non-white voters vote the same in primaries. The black vote is quite clustered in the south and in a delegate game that makes a difference.

My point is about the general elections and the fact that Sanders' strategy is to try and win by winning back white working class voters. His team was talking about targeting the Dakotas and Oklahoma, which is absurd. He's not trying to win by running up black turnout in swing states, he's trying to win by winning over white voters in red states, which is utterly stupid.

I'll concede that targeting those states is a terrible idea, but we're also very much not going to win if we don't tip over Obama-Trump whites in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. I'd add to that by saying that you should wait until Sanders has to run a general election campaign against Trump before you write off his targeting of black voters.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Has anyone check on GeneralMcArthur?

Mean girls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him. Another Trump midterm in 2022 would allow Democrats to pick up more Senate seats anyway.

Blacks are supporting Bernie, it's the CBC that endorsed Biden, and Biden made a racist comment about Busing

[W]

i think it's important to note how the numbers have shifted in this specific poll when it has been issued in the past:

biden:

oct - 34%

nov - 28% (-6%)

dec - 26% (-2%)

jan - 24% (-2%)

sanders:

oct - 16%

nov - 17% (+1%)

dec - 20% (+3%)

jan - 27% (+7%)

however you wanna consider this poll across the board given the many with biden leading, the trend is clear and spells trouble for biden and very well for sanders.

[W]

also noteable this poll was mostly issued to cell phones, arguably giving a wider scope of the electorate. i don't own a landline, you don't either.

[Devout Centrist]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him. Another Trump midterm in 2022 would allow Democrats to pick up more Senate seats anyway.

Unlike Hillary who swept the South and then utterly tanked in Cuyahoga County, Wayne County, Genesee County, and Philadelphia.

[Roblox]

Me: polling outliers exist, and it is always better to pay attention to the average.

Also me, upon seeing this poll

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6PkDHuaXi8

[DrScholl]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him. Another Trump midterm in 2022 would allow Democrats to pick up more Senate seats anyway.

Unlike Hillary who swept the South and then utterly tanked in Cuyahoga County, Wayne County, Genesee County, and Philadelphia.

Clearly there was a black turnout problem in 2016 that went unnoticed, but there is no reason to thinking that black voters will be stampeding to the polls to support a candidate who thinks that it's not necessarily racist for a white person to be uncomfortable voting for a black candidate (that's what Sanders said about Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum).

Trying to reach black voters is considered identity politics anyway, so I wouldn't expect an anti-identity politics candidate to do any outreach to black voters. Sanders is more interested in West Virginia than urban areas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Superdelegates in the House preemptively endorsed Biden eventhough he made a racist comment about busing. Blacks had Booker and Harris in the race, but Harris peaked too soon and Booker didn't get no bump, and Booker got the short end of the stick. Clyburn didnt rush and endorse Biden and neither did Ben Jealous

[ProudModerate2]

I believe Sanders is moving closer to Biden, but ...

...This is a pretty massive outlier though.

[Adam Griffin]

The WOWs (Well-Off Whites™) in the Democratic Party should stop trying to make this about two-dimensional branding, "party unity" or "electability": the voters ain't having it.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1219969141865623552

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1219971960186327040

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1219972956203487233

[Hindsight was 2020]

The WOWs (Well-Off Whites™) in the Democratic Party should stop trying to make this about two-dimensional branding, "party unity" or "electability": the voters ain't having it.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1219969141865623552

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1219971960186327040

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1219972956203487233

Yeah this argument that because Sanders doesn’t do great with non-whites in the primary that it meant he wouldn’t get them in the GE was kinda baseless

[NOVA Green]

The WOWs (Well-Off Whites™) in the Democratic Party should stop trying to make this about two-dimensional branding, "party unity" or "electability": the voters ain't having it.

The WOW's (Think you may have coined a new demographic discussion point for the DEM primaries) are certainly over-represented on Atlas in terms of social-class background (if not in terms of actual income).

Agreed with your overall assessment regarding the mood of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Indies, regardless of whom wins the Party nomination.

It always gets a bit snippy around here during DEM primary season since I joined before the '08 Primary election (and also to some extent as well when the REPs actually allow a semi-competitive primary ).

EDIT: Accidentally include my response to your quote as a full quote of President Griffin

[Adam Griffin]

If Sanders get the nomination, then good luck to him beating Trump. He certainly won't be getting the votes of many African-American voters who have no attachment to him. Another Trump midterm in 2022 would allow Democrats to pick up more Senate seats anyway.

Unlike Hillary who swept the South and then utterly tanked in Cuyahoga County, Wayne County, Genesee County, and Philadelphia.

Clearly there was a black turnout problem in 2016 that went unnoticed, but there is no reason to thinking that black voters will be stampeding to the polls to support a candidate who thinks that it's not necessarily racist for a white person to be uncomfortable voting for a black candidate (that's what Sanders said about Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum).

Trying to reach black voters is considered identity politics anyway, so I wouldn't expect an anti-identity politics candidate to do any outreach to black voters. Sanders is more interested in West Virginia than urban areas.

There was no "black turnout problem": turnout (and support) looked like it did in every other modern presidential election where somebody not named Barack Obama was on the ballot. Too many people absorbed the fairytale that black turnout and support in 2008 & 2012 wasn't inextricably tied to the fact that President Obama was a once in a generation phenomenon - not just for black voter participation, but also for politics at-large - and that those high watermarks would perpetually be sustainable.

Year	Blk Margin	VAP Trn Diff, Wht-Blk
2000	D+81	5.2
2004	D+77	6.9
2016	D+81	5.7

In the process of building models for federal GE campaigns, there's a very simple foundation for any formula: the Democrat will win the black vote by 80 points, and black voter turnout will be 6 points lower than white voter turnout. Everything else is relative guess work as to turnout and support among other groups.

There is no candidate in this race - regardless of race, gender or age - who will be able to mobilize black voters in the way that President Obama did, nor is there anybody tangibly on the horizon. While we're at it, let's also dispel with the quasi-racist trope that any candidate of color can somehow just magically "mobilize the black vote", as if it's literally just skin deep: virtually every single black candidate for statewide & federal office not named Barack Obama has received the same vote share and the same turnout as would have been expected had the candidate(s) been of any other race or ethnicity. Abrams is arguably the only other recent example, and even her improvements paled in comparison to Obama's - and are certainly not relevant to a national campaign unless she is the nominee.

The Democrat will win 89-91% of the black vote and black turnout will track predictably within 5-7 points of white turnout. If there is literally any predictable data-point in electoral campaigns, it's that one right there. Furthermore, I believe this is even truer now than it has been over the past couple of decades, as any non-Obama factor that galvanizes black turnout is likewise going to cause a "blacklash" and encourage whites to turnout in greater numbers as well (GA-2018, broadly speaking, is a fine example of this [in terms of race], and 2018 at-large is another good example of how one side's heightened enthusiasm catalizes the other to action [in terms of parties]).