COVID-19 Mega thread

[It’s so Joever]

I'd say Italy is more of a worst-case scenario for a developed nation and not every country will go down this route.

There is only a single route with exponential growth. All countries go on the same route, unless they implement drastic all-out containment/mitigation measures like China has done. Exponential processes are extremely unforgiving and don't care about any of our human concerns.

90% of what China did would be unconstitutional here at the federal level and probably 50% of would also be unconstitutional at the state/local level.  

However, there some things the federal government obviously can do.  I'm legitimately surprised passenger flights are still happening at SeaTac right now.    

Well that’s part of the problem with our cultural priority on “freedom” and our government, it hurts our response to crises. If Americans weren’t completely retarded, the Seattle metro would be under quarantine completely right now. Instead our politicians (specifically our president) only care about short term figures on the Dow for re-election and are too myopic to understand the long term implications of a pandemic.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds

The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar in February with its member hospitals and health systems. Business Insider obtained a copy of the slides presented.

The presentation, titled "What healthcare leaders need to know: Preparing for the COVID-19" happened February 26, with representatives from the National Ebola Training and Education Center.

As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.

Lawler's estimates include:

    4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
    96 million cases overall in the US
    480,000 deaths
    Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that's 10 times a severe flu season.

By comparison, the USA has 930k hospital beds.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/185860/number-of-all-hospital-beds-in-the-us-since-2001/

With 4.8 million people needing to be hospitalized and only 930k hospital beds (with most of them also being needed by people with other normal/regular conditions/diseases), obviously that is not remotely enough.

And this is with epidemiological estimates that to me look on the more optimistic side of what I have been seeing in recent studies.

https://twitter.com/WHPublicPool/status/1236340053552611329

[Skill and Chance]

I'd say Italy is more of a worst-case scenario for a developed nation and not every country will go down this route.

There is only a single route with exponential growth. All countries go on the same route, unless they implement drastic all-out containment/mitigation measures like China has done. Exponential processes are extremely unforgiving and don't care about any of our human concerns.

90% of what China did would be unconstitutional here at the federal level and probably 50% of would also be unconstitutional at the state/local level. 

However, there some things the federal government obviously can do.  I'm legitimately surprised passenger flights are still happening at SeaTac right now.   

Well that’s part of the problem with our cultural priority on “freedom” and our government, it hurts our response to crises. If Americans weren’t completely retarded, the Seattle metro would be under quarantine completely right now. Instead our politicians (specifically our president) only care about short term figures on the Dow for re-election and are too myopic to understand the long term implications of a pandemic.

A lot of people are voluntarily staying home/away from large indoor events, and a lot of business are volutarily closing/going remote, and all major airlines are waiving cancellation fees and reducing flights.  It may be possible to mitigate this without needing to officially ban/mandate all that much?  The private sector looks like it's out ahead of the government on taking this seriously just about everywhere.  The only case I can think of where a government ban was decisive is Austin shutting down SXSW.

To be clear, this is no endorsement of the "just let everyone catch it and get it over with" stuff we are hearing from libertarian economists.  That is idiotic.  This is about private action that is rightly being taken to mitigate the spread. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/italy-to-impose-virtual-ban-on-entry-to-lombardy-corriere

The Italian government is set to impose a virtual ban on entry into the region of Lombardy and several other northern areas to contain the spread of the coronavirus, according to newspaper Corriere della Sera, citing a forthcoming decree.

The measures will also include a so-called “security zone” with provisions including suspending skiing and public events, and closing museums, swimming pools and theaters, the newspaper said.

Can you do this in US?

[It’s so Joever]

I'd say Italy is more of a worst-case scenario for a developed nation and not every country will go down this route.

There is only a single route with exponential growth. All countries go on the same route, unless they implement drastic all-out containment/mitigation measures like China has done. Exponential processes are extremely unforgiving and don't care about any of our human concerns.

90% of what China did would be unconstitutional here at the federal level and probably 50% of would also be unconstitutional at the state/local level. 

However, there some things the federal government obviously can do.  I'm legitimately surprised passenger flights are still happening at SeaTac right now.   

Well that’s part of the problem with our cultural priority on “freedom” and our government, it hurts our response to crises. If Americans weren’t completely retarded, the Seattle metro would be under quarantine completely right now. Instead our politicians (specifically our president) only care about short term figures on the Dow for re-election and are too myopic to understand the long term implications of a pandemic.

A lot of people are voluntarily staying home/away from large indoor events, and a lot of business are volutarily closing/going remote, and all major airlines are waiving cancellation fees and reducing flights.  It may be possible to mitigate this without needing to officially ban/mandate all that much?  The private sector looks like it's out ahead of the government on taking this seriously just about everywhere.  The only case I can think of where a government ban was decisive is Austin shutting down SXSW.

To be clear, this is no endorsement of the "just let everyone catch it and get it over with" stuff we are hearing from libertarian economists.  That is idiotic.  This is about private action that is rightly being taken to mitigate the spread. 

Well we will see the true results of private action in two weeks.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1236159140952772608

As usual, Israel is handling this far better than most countries. This is giving me WWZ vibes in a weird way (yes I know it’s not the same thing)

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/italy-to-impose-virtual-ban-on-entry-to-lombardy-corriere

The Italian government is set to impose a virtual ban on entry into the region of Lombardy and several other northern areas to contain the spread of the coronavirus, according to newspaper Corriere della Sera, citing a forthcoming decree.

The measures will also include a so-called “security zone” with provisions including suspending skiing and public events, and closing museums, swimming pools and theaters, the newspaper said.

Can you do this in US?

Some of it could be done by governors/state legislature and most of it likely could not be done federally.  However, most of the laws/judicial precedents on quarantines predate the Civil Rights Act and even the New Deal (so the default is that states can do almost whatever they want while the federal government can do next to nothing except at international borders and in the old days, there were many state/local quarantines that only applied to ethnic minorities), so no one really knows.  SCOTUS would get 100's of emergency appeals overnight and we are really flying blind until they rule. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1236053003846615040

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1236362600507727877

[Florida Man for Crime]

Endorsed:

https://twitter.com/jayrosen_nyu/status/1236306434490609665

[100% pro-life no matter what]

One thing I've been wondering about is the assumption that it will take 12-18 months for a vaccine, that I have heard repeated like it's fact numerous times.

Back in 2009, I'm pretty sure authorities were initially saying the same thing about swine flu.  But, we had a vaccine ready and available to the general public within six months.  I imagine this was due to shortcutting the testing process.  In a global pandemic, I'd imagine that we would prioritize helping people over bureaucratic approvals.

[Torrain]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-squandered-time/2020/03/07/5c47d3d0-5fcb-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

If you read any article today, read this ^. It's a frustrating read, but it encapsulates the key issues in the White House response, and the failures of the last eight weeks.

Initially, I thought that this outbreak could be for Trump what the hostage crisis was to Carter, and Iraq was to Bush.

But I was wrong. Trump isn't Carter, or Bush. He's on his way to being Herbert Hoover.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

One thing I've been wondering about is the assumption that it will take 12-18 months for a vaccine, that I have heard repeated like it's fact numerous times.

Back in 2009, I'm pretty sure authorities were initially saying the same thing about swine flu.  But, we had a vaccine ready and available to the general public within six months.  I imagine this was due to shortcutting the testing process.  In a global pandemic, I'd imagine that we would prioritize helping people over bureaucratic approvals.

I don't have a clue about viruses, but my understanding is that we are  experienced fighting Influenzas, but not Coronaviruses, simply put.

[Torrain]

One thing I've been wondering about is the assumption that it will take 12-18 months for a vaccine, that I have heard repeated like it's fact numerous times.

Back in 2009, I'm pretty sure authorities were initially saying the same thing about swine flu.  But, we had a vaccine ready and available to the general public within six months.  I imagine this was due to shortcutting the testing process.  In a global pandemic, I'd imagine that we would prioritize helping people over bureaucratic approvals.

We understand influenza fairly well, and are in constant production, working to make new versions, based on the same format.

SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus, so we're starting with a lot of unknowns. We have to conduct cell tests, animal tests, and then human trials, on the brave souls willing to be injected with a new vaccine, that will include (in all likelihood) an attenuated (weakened, but alive) rather than killed virus.

That takes significant time, and there are many factors to consider.
- Which viral component, (or antigen) do we use as the vaccine component?
- Does the virus have to be alive, or can we use a dead virion in the vaccine?
- Does using a full virion (viral capsule) in the vaccine promote too strong an immune response?

Vaccine development used to take years, or decades. It is frankly a miracle that we can get it down to 12-18 months as it is. There are strict ethical and logistical considerations to be abided by, and it's not possible to cut those corners. If even one batch of botched vaccine gets into the population, it could hurt public confidence in vaccination. So researchers can't put a foot wrong.

[emailking]

I just took someone to the Atlanta airport and it was remarkably empty, even for early on a Saturday morning.  No lines, not many people (some wearing masks), plenty of parking right next to the terminal entrance.

Dang that's like one of the busiest airports in the country. Been there a few times for layovers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/FrancisXRocca/status/1236394429524697088

[Storebought]

I've been thinking that the easiest way to contain this outbreak in the West, or at least Europe, is simply for national governments to declare this an official season of Lent. The traditional observation of Lent included closing public places, shortening work hours, limiting personal travel, reducing consumption, etc. Since Lent lasts around six weeks, it will have all the effect of a quarantine without generating any sense of panic.

Back on topic: Amtrak, citing lower demand, decided to cancel the direct Acela service from NY to DC until May over this. That obviously strikes me as a pretext for shutting down a service it wanted to all along.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'd say Italy is more of a worst-case scenario for a developed nation and not every country will go down this route.

There is only a single route with exponential growth. All countries go on the same route, unless they implement drastic all-out containment/mitigation measures like China has done. Exponential processes are extremely unforgiving and don't care about any of our human concerns.

90% of what China did would be unconstitutional here at the federal level and probably 50% of would also be unconstitutional at the state/local level. 

However, there some things the federal government obviously can do.  I'm legitimately surprised passenger flights are still happening at SeaTac right now.   

Well that’s part of the problem with our cultural priority on “freedom” and our government, it hurts our response to crises. If Americans weren’t completely retarded, the Seattle metro would be under quarantine completely right now. Instead our politicians (specifically our president) only care about short term figures on the Dow for re-election and are too myopic to understand the long term implications of a pandemic.

A lot of people are voluntarily staying home/away from large indoor events, and a lot of business are volutarily closing/going remote, and all major airlines are waiving cancellation fees and reducing flights.  It may be possible to mitigate this without needing to officially ban/mandate all that much?  The private sector looks like it's out ahead of the government on taking this seriously just about everywhere.  The only case I can think of where a government ban was decisive is Austin shutting down SXSW.

To be clear, this is no endorsement of the "just let everyone catch it and get it over with" stuff we are hearing from libertarian economists.  That is idiotic.  This is about private action that is rightly being taken to mitigate the spread. 

I think the problem with "voluntary quarantine" is that it will prove to be insufficient. (I really hope I'm wrong!)  I expect that the result will be the combination of people who can't quarantine (the "I will be homeless and my kids won't have health coverage if I take two weeks off from work") demographic and the "who cares, it won't be that bad" crowd who won't quarantine will overwhelm the slowdown caused by the voluntary quarantine. But every bit helps

[GoTfan]

I'd say Italy is more of a worst-case scenario for a developed nation and not every country will go down this route.

There is only a single route with exponential growth. All countries go on the same route, unless they implement drastic all-out containment/mitigation measures like China has done. Exponential processes are extremely unforgiving and don't care about any of our human concerns.

90% of what China did would be unconstitutional here at the federal level and probably 50% of would also be unconstitutional at the state/local level. 

However, there some things the federal government obviously can do.  I'm legitimately surprised passenger flights are still happening at SeaTac right now.   

Well that’s part of the problem with our cultural priority on “freedom” and our government, it hurts our response to crises. If Americans weren’t completely retarded, the Seattle metro would be under quarantine completely right now. Instead our politicians (specifically our president) only care about short term figures on the Dow for re-election and are too myopic to understand the long term implications of a pandemic.

A lot of people are voluntarily staying home/away from large indoor events, and a lot of business are volutarily closing/going remote, and all major airlines are waiving cancellation fees and reducing flights.  It may be possible to mitigate this without needing to officially ban/mandate all that much?  The private sector looks like it's out ahead of the government on taking this seriously just about everywhere.  The only case I can think of where a government ban was decisive is Austin shutting down SXSW.

To be clear, this is no endorsement of the "just let everyone catch it and get it over with" stuff we are hearing from libertarian economists.  That is idiotic.  This is about private action that is rightly being taken to mitigate the spread. 

Well we will see the true results of private action in two weeks.

Hang on, are you actually advocating for democracy to be suspended?

[Meclazine for Israel]

+2,000 new cases of COVID-19 across the largest countries of Europe.

+1,247 Italy
+130 Germany
+296 France
+102 Spain
+60 The Netherlands
+24 Sweden
+29 Norway
+60 Belgium
+54 Switzerland
+45 UK
+21 Greece
+15 Austria
+5 Iceland
+6 Denmark

Denmark again has a surprisingly low infection rate with Italy and France experiencing strong growth.

With regards to Corona-virus infection, the US has a naive population in the initial phases or start of the growth curve. China is heading towards the end phase.

Another comparative analysis for today: Spanish Flu of 1918

An excellent overview of viral pandemics from a scientific perspective.

Cambridge University

Spanish Flu Summary

https://youtu.be/3x1aLAw_xkY

(Warning: they do use Double Harmonic Major scales with Dim7 chords and the Ionian Augmented #2 mode to darken the mood)

The Spanish Flu had three waves with the first wave in April-May 2018, and the second deadliest wave in September-October 2018.

The age-mortality analysis revealed the virus struck people aged ~30 years the hardest.



As opposed to Corona-virus which has a distinct mortality curve towards the elderly.



For those who want to learn more about how the Spanish Flu infected nearly every country on the planet through biological means, here is a great lecture on the virus pandemic.

The first woman blows through her nose into the mic, but she does not last long.

1918 Pandemic Webinar

100 Years since 1918: Are we ready for the next Pandemic?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4czg3aKmfXs

Both videos of the Spanish Flu above were made in 2018, and both reference the possibility of future pandemics and having the necessary resources and processes to cope effectively.

Interestingly, you probably have experienced a milder version of the Spanish Flu after 2009 when H1-N1 re-emerged from Mexico.

[Florida Man for Crime]

We Predicted a Coronavirus Pandemic. Here’s What Policymakers Could Have Seen Coming.
Last year we ran a disaster scenario shockingly similar to the news now. Here’s what experts realized the world is getting wrong, and how they can fix it.

The news of a highly contagious new virus jumping from China to the U.S. has caught many Americans by surprise. For us, the outbreak was more like déjà vu: Last October, we convened a group of experts to work through what would happen if a global pandemic suddenly hit the world’s population. The disease at the heart of our scenario was a novel and highly transmissible coronavirus.

For our fictional pandemic, we assembled about 20 experts in global health, the biosciences, national security, emergency response and economics at our Washington, D.C., headquarters. The session was designed to stress-test U.S. approaches to global health challenges that could affect national security. As specialists in national security strategic planning, we’ve advised U.S. Cabinet officials, members of Congress, CEOs and other leaders on how to plan for crises before they strike, using realistic but fictional scenarios like this one.

The experts we convened walked through just how Americans and the global community would fare—how the pandemic would stress resources, bureaucracies and international relations. We then had participants backcast to today, recommending changes to our current path that could help avoid or manage the risks of a pandemic.

What we found, overall, was that the world has changed in ways that make it far harder to contain disease—and some of the mistakes that fuel its spread have already happened in the current real-world outbreak. There is still time, though, to think more carefully about how to respond both to this outbreak and likely future ones.

We chose a new strain of coronavirus for our scenario because scientists agreed that this was a likely pathogen for a future epidemic; recent outbreaks such as SARS and MERS were also caused by the coronavirus family. The future we described was based on the research of deep subject matter experts who have studied recent epidemics, including our colleagues in the Center for Strategic and International Studies Global Health Security program and researchers with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

There are also videos available online for both the Event 201 and Clade X pandemic exercises btw (just look up those names and you should find them on youtube).

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1236415249772937221

[Mr. Morden]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1236415249772937221

AIPAC too:

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1236419004178325505

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1236415249772937221

Hopefully this persuades people to cancel more large gatherings like that. Any non-essential large gatherings like that should be canceled or switch to online/virtual meetings if possible.

Moreover, the fact that this is starting to hit near the governing center in DC will hopefully help kick policymakers into action much more strongly than they have so far.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1236415249772937221

AIPAC too:

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1236419004178325505

Considering that most of these people are probably on the older side, that just makes it even more irresponsible for Trump to downplay the virus. He's probably one of the only people the audiences of these conventions listen to, does he really want to risk the lives of his own voters? Someone needs to put it that way to him and then maybe, finally he will take the pandemic seriously.