COVID-19 Mega thread

[Crumpets]

Florida now.

https://twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1234313797566914560

[GP270watch]

Florida now.

https://twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1234313797566914560

  Florida man gets infected.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Grim but true - everyone who thinks Florida is safe R is going to be proven wrong when it starts sweeping its way through those FL retirement homes.

Also apparently Indonesia has its "first" 2 cases now. I guess they are dropping the Don't Test Don't Tell policy, just like the USA is now starting to do.

[Crumpets]

Grim but true - everyone who thinks Florida is safe R is going to be proven wrong when it starts sweeping its way through those FL retirement homes.

Also apparently Indonesia has its "first" 2 cases now. I guess they are dropping the Don't Test Don't Tell policy, just like the USA is now starting to do.

IIRC, Indonesia has one of the worst ratings in terms of vulnerability to epidemics because of the high population density combined with poor access to quality healthcare.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1234287334209867776

So there's an active case of the virus on Manhattan? That doesn't bode well. Isolation is the best tool we have for containment, and as one of the most built-up, cramped urban areas in the US, NYC is super vulnerable. If she took the subway, or spent time in a restaurant while infected, this could spread like wildfire...

Edit: Cuomo says she's been in a controlled environment since returning from Iran, but there's no further detail about what that means.

[Meclazine for Israel]

We have a heap of new infections from Iran as well, and that is why the threat level remains.



I am signing up for a trip to Antarctica for 12 months.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Economical Impact

https://www.ft.com/content/60f9e2ec-dd39-31cc-86d9-1adaa4dde1f8
OECD warns virus could halve its global growth outlook

The OECD became the first international organisation to sound the alarm about coronavirus on Monday, saying the world economy was “at risk” and warning of the possibility that global growth will halve this year from its previous forecast.

Just the effect of the widespread closure of factories and businesses in China was likely to cut 0.5 percentage points from the global growth forecast in 2020, the Paris-based international organisation said, lowering its forecast from an already weak 2.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent.

That puts the global economy on the verge of a recession, which is traditionally defined as growth below 2.5 per cent.

If there was a “longer lasting and more intensive coronavirus outbreak, spreading widely throughout the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America”, prospects would dim further and global growth “could drop to 1.5 per cent in 2020, half the rate projected prior to the virus outbreak,” the OECD added.

Calling on governments to act “swiftly and forcefully” on health and economic effects, it called for supportive monetary and fiscal policies to restore confidence even though it recognised that economic policies cannot offset the immediate effects of shutdowns in business activity designed to slow the spread of the virus.

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1234185283941359617
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1234190347724632073

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

CDC Mistakenly Released Texas Coronavirus Patient Who Later Tested Positive, San Antonio Mayor Says

Coronavirus may have spread undetected in US for weeks: report

As Testing Quickly Ramps Up, Expect More U.S. Coronavirus Cases

Initially, limited testing capacity meant the CDC didn't advise testing sick people unless they had a history of travel to affected countries or contact with a known COVID-19 case. And test kits sent to labs around the country had a problem with one ingredient that resulted in delays.

"I certainly do wish that the testing was available sooner. There was this very unfortunate challenge in the production process and it did put us a few weeks behind," Becker told NPR.

[Torrain]

First COVID-19 case here in Scotland, in Tayside, upon return from Italy. The nature of Scottish infrastructure means that this individual likely traveled through either Edinburgh or (less likely) Glasgow Airport.

Tayside is fairly rural, outside of the city of Dundee, so the individual will have undertaken a journey lasting several hours. I'm just praying they drove their own car rather than using public transport.

Scotland is not as prepared as the regional government is bragging. We've got an aging population, with infamously poor stats on alcohol and tobacco consumption, alongside obesity prevalence. Additionally, all regional travel is funneled through our two major cities, which are served by a series of aged hospitals currently undergoing refitting (to various degrees of success).

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-12-new-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-in-uk-11947094

What's most frustrating however, is that Edinburgh Airport, our largest travel hub, is cheerily declining to perform even basic testing on returning travellers. I just hope that Holyrood (Scottish Government) pushes them to do at least the bare minimum testing.

https://twitter.com/EDI_Airport/status/1232626115686125568

Westminster isn't pushing for airport checks at the moment, but it seems increasingly irresponsible given the spike of cases here over the last 36 hours.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Iran situation is bad because of the lack of testing and honest reporting.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/how-iran-has-become-a-new-epicentre-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak/12014792

They just wont tell the truth. It's too shameful in their culture to admit to this.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump is preparing to declare the Coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. a hoax an emergency:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fema-prepping-possible-coronavirus-emergency-declaration-n1147016

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump is preparing to declare the Coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. a hoax an emergency:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fema-prepping-possible-coronavirus-emergency-declaration-n1147016

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is planning for the possibility that President Donald Trump could make an emergency declaration to bring in extra funds and personnel to assist the administration's coronavirus response, according to internal documents obtained by NBC News.

Trump says U.S. in 'very good shape' on coronavirus. (Feb. 25th)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1232304804820467714

Sounds like FEMA are calling Mr. Trump a stupid liar. I wonder how well that will go over with the White House?

[Florida Man for Crime]

The person they released from quarantine who later tested positive in San Antonio had close contact with 21 known people, and in addition to that... also visited a mall, where they may have had contact with who knows how many other people, and where it is pretty much impossible to trace contacts. Great job, Feds!

It is not like there were reports going back weeks that a 14 day quarantine period might not be enough... Oh wait, actually there were such reports!

https://twitter.com/LaurenCaruba/status/1234514420472131586

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/world/coronavirus-news.html

Nations should not give up on containing the virus, W.H.O. says.

The head of the World Health Organization, said Monday that the coronavirus could still be contained around the world, but that “the window of opportunity is narrowing.”

Asked at a news conference about concerns that the virus was no longer containable, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the organization, said the W.H.O.’s message has remained consistent: Countries should take a “comprehensive approach” that tries to contain the virus.

“Of course we can have concerns and worries, it’s understandable, but let’s really calm down and do the right things, and use the window of opportunity to contain this outbreak,” he said.

He added, without identifying countries, that “in some places we are not seeing the level of response that we expected.” For that reason, he said, the W.H.O. was reminding the world “that the window of opportunity is narrowing and that we still have to do our best to catch up.”

Dr. Tedros said that there were “positive signals” that nations could contain the virus, such as the dozens of countries with fewer than 100 cases. He also cited the slowdown of infections in China as a sign that the virus could be contained.

“There is a point in any epidemic where you believe you can no longer contain the virus, or like it was influenza and you have to shift your resources to saving lives,” said Dr. Michael Ryan, the executive director of the W.H.O.’s health emergencies program. “Now W.H.O. does not believe that we’re there yet.”

God bless Donald J Trump 🙏 🙏 🙏

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Iran situation is bad because of the lack of testing and honest reporting.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/how-iran-has-become-a-new-epicentre-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak/12014792

They just wont tell the truth. It's too shameful in their culture to admit to this.

They are incredibly incompetent... which is frightening.

(CNN)An adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died after contracting the novel coronavirus, state radio said on Monday.

Mohammad Mirmohammadi, 71, was a member of the Expediency Council that advises Khamenei. He is the latest in a string of Iranian officials to have died after contracting the virus.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

WSJ: BREAKING NEWS.....

*Four new deaths linked to the novel coronavirus reported Washington state, health officials say

*Death count in Washington state now stands at six

*Three of the new deaths were elderly patients from Life Care Center nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash.

*Fourth death was from Snohomish County

[Beet]

What's going on with the Trump administration? Here are some headlines I'm seeing today-

NYC ER doctor: I have to ‘plead to test people’ for coronavirus

CDC abruptly postpones coronavirus press briefing, won't say when it will be rescheduled, and deletes testing statistics from its website.

At least 21 exposed as coronavirus patient went to hospital, hotel and North Star Mall after positive CDC patient was released in San Antonio.

[OBD]

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/third-presumptive-oregon-coronavirus-case-announced.html

What's concerning about the recent Oregon and California outbreaks is that none of the three confirmed cases (in Oregon) were from contact with China. This implies that there's a significant amount of unconfirmed cases in these states, and it's incredibly alarming that COVID has somehow ended up in rural Eastern Oregon.

[Florida Man for Crime]

it's incredibly alarming that COVID has somehow ended up in rural Eastern Oregon.

Concerning, but not surprising or unexpected. We have things called airplanes and we also have things called cars - and basically everyone in the USA has a car.

[OBD]

it's incredibly alarming that COVID has somehow ended up in rural Eastern Oregon.

Concerning, but not surprising or unexpected. We have things called airplanes and we also have things called cars - and basically everyone in the USA has a car.

Still, that casino worker didn't go to China. At the very least, it implies some unidentified infectee from Portland visited that casino - and other patrons, as well as Person X's relations in Portland, are infected too. Considering the fact that this is community transmission, there's a lot of terrifying implications.

[Meclazine for Israel]

COVID-19 virus really starting to spread inside the Western World.

Of particular risk are people aged>70 living in the winter flu zone. This zone appears to be more heavily affected at a Northern latitude of ~35 deg N.

Have added the latitudinal region highlighted in red.



And for cases outside China, the growth is quite remarkable at present:


(Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

If Iran actually tested it's citizens correctly, that graph would be sharper. For the first time in the last 50 years, West Africa is the safest place to be to avoid a disease outbreak.

Full Beet! threat level still in place.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Important update on the Washington State cluster - 2 different methods were used to estimate the # of cases probable from that cluster, given the genomes and that it has likely been circulating in the area for 6 weeks, and they find a similar sort of estimate/range of # of cases.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401

[Florida Man for Crime]

Still, that casino worker didn't go to China. At the very least, it implies some unidentified infectee from Portland visited that casino - and other patrons, as well as Person X's relations in Portland, are infected too. Considering the fact that this is community transmission, there's a lot of terrifying implications.

It has been spreading for 6 weeks un-detected in the Pacific Northwest, and to some degree probably across other parts of the USA as well. We should increasingly expect to see cases pop up in random places, including places where you would not necessarily expect them, as the overall #s of cases go up. You are right that it is bad, but it is not inconsistent at all with what epidemiologists expected in their analysis/projections going back at least a month or so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1234608948893954048

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

What's going on with the Trump administration? Here are some headlines I'm seeing today-

NYC ER doctor: I have to �plead to test people� for coronavirus

CDC abruptly postpones coronavirus press briefing, won't say when it will be rescheduled, and deletes testing statistics from its website.

At least 21 exposed as coronavirus patient went to hospital, hotel and North Star Mall after positive CDC patient was released in San Antonio.

Elderly leader, poor testing in the initial stages, lies, politicizing the epidemic, religious leaders promising non-existent miracle cures, general incompetence... looks like Iran may be the model for what we end up looking like.