COVID-19 Mega thread

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Looks like China is mass cremating the dead bodies of Coronavirus victims:

https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777?s=19

https://twitter.com/GorseFires/status/1226520924444213248
https://twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1226347594013605889
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1226518229545340929

(This is good practice for how bad Republican disinformation is going to get for the election this year.)

[emailking]

Would there be any point in burning the corpses anyway? I thought corona viruses only survive a few hours outside of a live host.

[Beet]

Death rate.

Three days ago, officially 565 died, 1,171 recovered. Today officially 807 died, 2,617 recovered. The death rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

Are you willing to understand why it was misleading that you were talking about a 60%+ death rate a couple weeks ago?

No, that was based on the best information we had at the time; and this is based on the best information we have now. The method has not changed. The final death rate may not be 14% either.

[Beet]

Would there be any point in burning the corpses anyway? I thought corona viruses only survive a few hours outside of a live host.

The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective.

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

[Meclazine for Israel]

Death rate.

Three days ago, officially 565 died, 1,171 recovered. Today officially 807 died, 2,617 recovered. The death rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

Are you willing to understand why it was misleading that you were talking about a 60%+ death rate a couple weeks ago?

No, that was based on the best information we had at the time; and this is based on the best information we have now. The method has not changed. The final death rate may not be 14% either.

He is not asking you to correct your method which is make-believe science. No one calculates mortality rate like you have.

He is asking you if you are willing to accept the stating a 60% mortality rate is blatantly misleading when the mortality rate has been 2% this whole time?

Reading any article on the internet by typing 'mortality rate' into Google will show you that you are not reporting anything meaningful.

Reporting 60%, 50%, 45%, 35%, 17% mortality rate over time should give you a clue that your thinking may be wrong.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Monday 10 Feb 2020

Cases: 40,234

Deaths: 906

Mortality Rate: 2.25%

Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

A little uptick in mortality rate.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The cruise ship Diamond Princess in Japan reported 60 new cases which brings the total number of cases from the ship to 136.

[Beet]

Death rate.

3 days ago officially 636 died, 1,489 recovered. Today 906 died, 3,245 recovered. The CFR for the most recent three days is 13%.

[Dr. Arch]

For anyone interested in maps and numbers, John Hopkins has a live map of reported cases, recoveries, and deaths for the Coronavirus:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Beet]

The biggest study yet of 1,099 cases, however only 67 are resolved.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1

- Median age 47, significantly younger than previous studies
- Median age of "severe" cases 52, significantly younger than previous studies
- Mortality rate of resolved cases is 22%, under the mainstream method only 1.36%
- Incubation period only 3 days, but up to 24 days.
- 1 severe case of a child under 15, which would be the first reported.

At this point, it is clear neither incubation period nor nucleic acid test are reliable indicators. This is very bad.

[Torrain]

Emerging story here in the UK:

https://twitter.com/BBCSussex/status/1226861188081909761

Cases doubled to 8 over the last 24 hours, and a GP practise (local doctor's office) has been cordoned off after a staff member tested positive for the virus.

This is one we're going to have keep an eye on here, as GP surgeries are filled with a steady stream of patients each day, and the vast majority are those who are most pre-disposed to viral infection, i.e. the immune-compromised, the elderly, and children coming in for vaccinations.

We're going to need to identify which patient infected the staff-member, and how long ago. If there are a bunch of asymptomatic patients running around Sussex, and a bunch of exposed elderly individuals, we could be in for a big clean-up operation.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per globalnews:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he expects the coronavirus will “go away” in April when the “heat comes in,” saying the heat tends to kill viruses like this.

Viruses can be killed by heat.   But off the top of my head, this temperature (165*-215*F) is well above that of even the highest air temp ever recorded on Earth.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Thanks God, Trump didn't stop Global Warming! We'd already be dead if we listened to Al Gore 

[It’s so Joever]

Per globalnews:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he expects the coronavirus will “go away” in April when the “heat comes in,” saying the heat tends to kill viruses like this.

Viruses can be killed by heat.   But off the top of my head, this temperature (165*-215*F) is well above that of even the highest air temp ever recorded on Earth.

I don’t want to be the one to defend Trump, but he does have a point. Coronaviruses in the past did tend to spread better in cold conditions and are seasonal viruses typically. There are several theories behind why, but Trump may have meant something like that. Of course I wouldn’t put it past him to believe that a hot summer day will disinfect the World.

[Torrain]

Per globalnews:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he expects the coronavirus will “go away” in April when the “heat comes in,” saying the heat tends to kill viruses like this.

Viruses can be killed by heat.   But off the top of my head, this temperature (165*-215*F) is well above that of even the highest air temp ever recorded on Earth.

I don’t want to be the one to defend Trump, but he does have a point. Coronaviruses in the past did tend to spread better in cold conditions and are seasonal viruses typically. There are several theories behind why, but Trump may have meant something like that. Of course I wouldn’t put it past him to believe that a hot summer day will disinfect the World.

I agree that Trump is probably repeating a stat he's been given about the effect of the seasons on viral spread, but using his characteristically simplified language.

That said, a little warmth isn't going to do much if N-CoV gets into the general population, and alternatively, if it's beaten back, I'll be praising the work of the WHO and scientists across the world, not the sun.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Tuesday 11 Feb 2020

Cases: 42,760

Deaths: 1,013

Mortality Rate: 2.37%

Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Mortality rate starting to climb slightly over the last two to three days.

[It’s so Joever]

Tuesday 11 Feb 2020

Cases: 42,760

Deaths: 1,013

Mortality Rate: 2.37%

Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Mortality rate starting to climb slightly over the last two to three days.

Beet was correct we are all going to die, everyone panic!!!

[Skill and Chance]

Tuesday 11 Feb 2020

Cases: 42,760

Deaths: 1,013

Mortality Rate: 2.37%

Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Mortality rate starting to climb slightly over the last two to three days.

Beet was correct we are all going to die, everyone panic!!!

On a serious note, China apparently changed their reporting methodology and stopped counting/testing asymptomatic cases.  That would likely slow the reported increase and raise the reported death rate (because it's missing more infected people who are only barely sick).

[It’s so Joever]

Tuesday 11 Feb 2020

Cases: 42,760

Deaths: 1,013

Mortality Rate: 2.37%

Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Mortality rate starting to climb slightly over the last two to three days.

Beet was correct we are all going to die, everyone panic!!!

On a serious note, China apparently changed their reporting methodology and stopped counting/testing asymptomatic cases.  That would likely slow the reported increase and raise the reported death rate (because it's missing more infected people who are only barely sick).

Wait really?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Wait really?

Yep.

Some other news is also that the incubation period/asymptomatic period may be longer than previously thought (more than 14 days), and that it generally takes 3 weeks or so to get to the point where you find out how bad it is going to be for a particular patient. If that is the case, that would bias the fatality rate downwards since it takes quite a bit of time for cases to resolve (whereas the change in how China is reporting cases would bias it upwards).

[It’s so Joever]

Wait really?

Yep.

Some other news is also that the incubation period/asymptomatic period may be longer than previously thought (more than 14 days), and that it generally takes 3 weeks or so to get to the point where you find out how bad it is going to be for a particular patient. If that is the case, that would bias the fatality rate downwards since it takes quite a bit of time for cases to resolve (whereas the change in how China is reporting cases would bias it upwards).

I knew/suspected the second part before, but do you have a source for China’s new testing procedures because I can’t find anything (maybe I’m looking in the wrong place)

[Skill and Chance]

Wait really?

Yep.

Some other news is also that the incubation period/asymptomatic period may be longer than previously thought (more than 14 days), and that it generally takes 3 weeks or so to get to the point where you find out how bad it is going to be for a particular patient. If that is the case, that would bias the fatality rate downwards since it takes quite a bit of time for cases to resolve (whereas the change in how China is reporting cases would bias it upwards).

I knew/suspected the second part before, but do you have a source for China’s new testing procedures because I can’t find anything (maybe I’m looking in the wrong place)

I don't know if the testing procedure has changed.  What has apparently changed is that they have stopped including asymptomatic positive tests in the official count of infections.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I knew/suspected the second part before, but do you have a source for China’s new testing procedures because I can’t find anything (maybe I’m looking in the wrong place)

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227043486089850880

[Beet]

Death rate.

Three days ago, 723 died and 2,063 recovered. Today 1,018 died and 4,052 recovered. The death rate for the past 3 days remains 13%.

NTD News*, an extension of the Falun Gong movement, did a rather unethical but fascinating investigation into a crematorium in Wuhan, finding:

- x4-5 more bodies than usual
- 38% are from the hospital, 61% are from home
- Only 8 out of 127 cases daily had nCov on the death certificate

Let us assume that no "home" cases are being diagnosed one way or another, and the additional load on the crematorium is about ~100 daily. Then they are getting ~38 additional load from hospital cases, and let us assume all 8 officially counted are hospital cases. Then of the likely nCov deaths, about 8/38 or only about 21% make it into the official death rate. By this back-of-the-envelope calcuation then the actual daily hospital death rate in Wuhan is about x5 what is reported (and overall 12-13x reported). Or in the case of Hubei province, the hospital death rate is 500 per day. This also has implications for the case fatality rate. If an extra 400 per day are added to this toll, then it is 43% (assuming that there are no undiagnosed hospital recoveries).

* Note I do not really trust NTD News, as they have at least one video of what appears to be an epileptic patient on their YouTube channel; however this particular call seems plausible.

[parochial boy]

Fwiw, even if you just insist on looking at recoveries v deaths as your metric - even within China, outside of Hubei, a couple of days ago there were about 30 deaths and 1'200 recoveries (ie 2-3% death rate), with the number of new infections having falled by half since the start of the month.

That would seem to imply that the number of cases in Hubei is majorly unreported, but also that it's significantly less deadly than it might appear just basing on what seems like  pretty dire situation within Hubei. I think I would be feeling slightly more optimistic today than I would have a couple of days ago to be honest.

edit - 42 deaths and 1772 recoveries in China outside of Hubei as of yesterday, which is a mortality rate of 2.4%. Two deaths and over 50 recoveries outside of China, and judging by the story of the British super-spreader, they seem to be being pretty conservative about considering people as recovered or not. I dare say these stats are more accurate than the ones coming out of Wuhan.

[Meclazine for Israel]

There are two ways I will calculate the mortality rate tomorrow.

1. Total deaths / Total cases.

2. Total deaths at day.x / total cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

Formula 1 does not take into account the lag between the cases being discovered (reported on the day) and the corresponding death T days later.

If anyone has an understanding of T, or would like to hazard a guess, let me know. I am thinking  7-10 days.

With the data we have, we should be able to get a more accurate mortality rate.