COVID-19 Mega thread

[Crumpets]

Just looking at the numbers on Wikipedia, it looks like the number of new reports in China have gone down pretty substantially today. So either the it's just noise, quarantine is working or China is fudging the numbers. Any seems reasonable.

EDIT: Okay, scratch that. I must have been looking at some kind of preliminary numbers because now the new reports statistics look pretty much in line with previous days.

[Cinemark]

Also, it doesnt seem like experts are in agreement about Coronavirus being contagious while not exhibiting symptoms.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The new case (newly reported this morning USA time) in Germany is human-to-human transmission from someone who was asymptomatic and didn't even know they were sick:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

A German man who tested positive for the strain of coronavirus sweeping across China was infected by a work colleague, officials said on Tuesday, in what is believed to be the first human transmission in Europe, AFP reports.

The man had not visited China but a Chinese work colleague who was in Germany last week had started to feel sick on the flight home on 23 January, said Andreas Zapf, the head of the Bavarian state office for health and food safety.

He had attended a training session given by his Chinese colleague on 21 January at the office of a car parts supplier Webasto in Stockdorf in Bavaria and tested positive for the virus on Monday evening. Unlike the other patients, the 33-year-old had not recently travelled to China.

So the Chinese person who had the got the virus in China, flew to Europe without showing any symptoms, infected someone in Europe, still without showing any symptoms or feeling sick, and then only started to feel sick and show symptoms 2 days later, when they were not even in Germany any more and were on a plane flying back to China (possibly infecting others on the plane, of course).

This seems like undeniable human-to-human asymptomatic transmission from someone who was still in the incubation period. And since this occurred in Germany, it can't really be written off as "maybe it is just a false report from China" or "maybe they got it from someone else who did actually show symptoms."

This being the case, does anyone see any possible way that this could plausibly be contained??? It seems like a sure thing that this will spread around the whole world now, just a matter of time.

Hell, you can still buy plane tickets (look on google flights or wherever you buy plane tickets) from Wuhan to the USA (and elsewhere), not to mention from the rest of China (where there are also cases) to the USA and everywhere else in the world.

Right now on google flights I am looking and you can buy a ticket from Wuhan to Los Angeles leaving tomorrow (Jan 29) for $1271. Or to New York for the same $1271. These are not good tickets (2 stops and takes a long time), but they are tickets. Or to Tokyo for $650. The only thing that is closed down are DIRECT international flights from Wuhan to other places, but you can still easily take a flight from Wuhan to anywhere else in China, and then from there to anywhere in the world.

Given the case in Germany, how can it plausibly not be the case that quite a few people who have the virus but are still in the incubation stage, or don't feel sick yet and don't have a fever yet, DON'T spread all over the world with that, and then infect other people without realizing it? At this stage it will also start being people from random parts of China also, not just from Wuhan.

I am not trying to be alarmist here (like Beet), but just trying to look at the facts - and I don't see how it can possibly not spread globally as long as this is the case. That seems to render to quarantine measures that have been put in place for road/train/etc travel fairly meaningless, except as something to slow the spread a bit (but not actually turn it back).

Is there anything I am missing here? Seriously, someone please correct this - show me that this is somehow wrong, I would LOVE to know that the above is somehow incorrect!!!!!!


- edit - just to clarify, I am not trying to say that all flights should necessarily be canceled or that that would help other than to slow it down. If it can be transmitted asymptomatically/while in the incubation period, it seems like it would eventually spread everywhere anyway regardless.

[Cinemark]

^
I dunno. But what i do know is that most of the cases in the west have been mild and treatable, so I guess just practice good hygiene and don't touch your face with your hands.

[Beet]

I am not an 'alarmist'. I'm one of the few people here who have explicitly said don't be afraid. And I repeat: Don't be alarmed.

I sometimes post some things here, which are all either conservatively factually based or plausible based on evidence (not speculation), and these are usually confirmed or borne out. However, excessive fear or panic helps no one. It's best to focus on the things you can do.

As for how this can be contained, I am less alarmed than The Impartial Spectator. As mentioned some posts ago, there are still methods that can be used to contain spread even if asymptomatic transmission is possible. The first is 14-day quarantine periods for people coming from epidemic areas. After the incubation period if there are no symptoms, the person is in clear. The second is developing a more short term test, such as a mobile PCR test- with accuracy adjusted towards generating false positives rather than vice versa. The third is developing a vaccine, and the fourth is developing a treatment. Of course, the last two will take time.

Additionally, the development of higher habits of hygiene can control the spread. For instance, avoiding large gatherings and wearing masks, goggles and gloves (when touching public surfaces), avoid touching the face, and washing your hands (as mentioned by sjoyce) can help slow the spread.

[President Johnson]

I think the biggest source for panic among people is the fact that we don't know enough the new virus, even if the current mortality rate is relatively low and affects patients with a history of chronic diseases. The general risk to be infected by influenza is much, much higher and the worldwide death numbers are in the hundred of thousands.

[Devout Centrist]

I am not an 'alarmist'. I'm one of the few people here who have explicitly said don't be afraid. And I repeat: Don't be alarmed.

>Goes on FunnyJunk.com to find a fake graphic
>'Case mortality rate of 86%!'
>'I estimate this virus will kill 3-5% of the global population'
>'I'm not an alarmist!'

[Beet]

Why the name calling?

I am not an 'alarmist'. I'm one of the few people here who have explicitly said don't be afraid. And I repeat: Don't be alarmed.

>Goes on FunnyJunk.com to find a fake graphic

If you have plausible evidence the graphic is fake, please post it and I will happily delete that post.

>'Case mortality rate of 86%!'

Those are not my numbers, they are derived from wikipedia sources and Johns Hopkins University public statistics, based on the simple transparent formula (new deaths)/(new recoveries + new deaths). I wish it were far lower. If you feel you have a better method of calculation, feel free to disregard it or argue for your alternative.

>'I estimate this virus will kill 3-5% of the global population'

5% is my estimate yes, but yes, it is not yet factually true (obviously), which is why I was careful to post it on a different thread on a different board and keep it out of this discussion entirely, until now. It should also be pointed out that in that same thread, another poster said 3-4 billion (about 50%) would die, and seven people voted (>1 billion) in the poll, all of which are far more alarmist than myself. The only ones already proven wrong so far, however, are the 3 people who voted under 100.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The Chinese lady who visited Germany and was asymptomatic until on her flight back to China apparently infected at least 4 people, not just 1.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1222274139618185216

The #2019nCoV count in Germany is up to 4 now, all stemming from the visit by a Chinese woman who worked for a German car parts supplier. She reportedly only became symptomatic on her flight back to China.

It was hoped that maybe people who were still in the incubation phase/were asymptomatic would not be good carriers - and while they might infect 1 person occasionally, they wouldn't infect many (in which case, maybe the virus could be stamped out more easily).

If this report of the additional infections in Germany is correct though, it looks like that is probably not the case, and asymptomatic people CAN transmit the virus fairly efficiently. That would seem to be quite bad news for any remaining hopes of containing this over the longer run. While it may be slowed down in places by preventative measures, over a period of months, how does this not spread everywhere? Particularly if/when it gets going in places like India and in Africa where resources to counter it are lacking.

[ON Progressive]

Now I’m starting to get quite nervous, even if this virus will probably not hit us as hard as other places.

[The Dowager Mod]

I am not an 'alarmist'. I'm one of the few people here who have explicitly said don't be afraid. And I repeat: Don't be alarmed.

I sometimes post some things here, which are all either conservatively factually based or plausible based on evidence (not speculation), and these are usually confirmed or borne out. However, excessive fear or panic helps no one. It's best to focus on the things you can do.

As for how this can be contained, I am less alarmed than The Impartial Spectator. As mentioned some posts ago, there are still methods that can be used to contain spread even if asymptomatic transmission is possible. The first is 14-day quarantine periods for people coming from epidemic areas. After the incubation period if there are no symptoms, the person is in clear. The second is developing a more short term test, such as a mobile PCR test- with accuracy adjusted towards generating false positives rather than vice versa. The third is developing a vaccine, and the fourth is developing a treatment. Of course, the last two will take time.

Additionally, the development of higher habits of hygiene can control the spread. For instance, avoiding large gatherings and wearing masks, goggles and gloves (when touching public surfaces), avoid touching the face, and washing your hands (as mentioned by sjoyce) can help slow the spread.

Dial it back a little please.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1222294415152164865?s=19

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'll be honest- I think I was a little too optimistic last week about this thing.  I think I said that the worst-case scenario would be roughly a repeat of swine flu from 2009, but I'm starting to think that "swine flu 2.0" might actually be our best case scenario.  The big thing that changed was that this appears to be legitimately contagious for at least part of the incubation period.  I still don't expect a pandemic as severe as Beet fears, but I could see this spreading worldwide and infecting hundreds of millions of people- perhaps even north of a billion people.  I don't think it's super deadly, so I think the worst case scenario is probably 1% of the world dying, which would still be a tragedy that very few of us have seen in our lifetimes.

[Cinemark]

I'll be honest- I think I was a little too optimistic last week about this thing.  I think I said that the worst-case scenario would be roughly a repeat of swine flu from 2009, but I'm starting to think that "swine flu 2.0" might actually be our best case scenario.  The big thing that changed was that this appears to be legitimately contagious for at least part of the incubation period.  I still don't expect a pandemic as severe as Beet fears, but I could see this spreading worldwide and infecting hundreds of millions of people- perhaps even north of a billion people.  I don't think it's super deadly, so I think the worst case scenario is probably 1% of the world dying, which would still be a tragedy that very few of us have seen in our lifetimes.

The vast majority of cases in the west are stable and recovering. Except for a case in France where an 80 year old man is in severe condition. That seems like a precursor for whats to come sadly. The elderly and people with compromised immune systems will be the ones who will face the worst of this.

Edit: Im still hopeful this will sort itself soon. But always a good idea to be prepared.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I'll be honest- I think I was a little too optimistic last week about this thing.  I think I said that the worst-case scenario would be roughly a repeat of swine flu from 2009, but I'm starting to think that "swine flu 2.0" might actually be our best case scenario.  The big thing that changed was that this appears to be legitimately contagious for at least part of the incubation period.  I still don't expect a pandemic as severe as Beet fears, but I could see this spreading worldwide and infecting hundreds of millions of people- perhaps even north of a billion people.  I don't think it's super deadly, so I think the worst case scenario is probably 1% of the world dying, which would still be a tragedy that very few of us have seen in our lifetimes.

That seems about right to me at this point, I agree the plausible range seems to be probably something between 2009 swine flu and 1% of the global population dying, although possibly it could be a bit more - depends on what exactly the fatality rate is and what % of the population gets infected.

As more confirmed cases are coming in, it seems like the fatality ratio is ever so slightly lower - 131/5572 = 2.35%. Hopefully there are lots and lots of un-confirmed cases, which would push the actual ratio lower. On the other hand the reported # confirmed leads the reported # of fatalities because people who die don't all die immediately. Some whose cases were confirmed will die over the next days and weeks, but are not counted as amongst the dead yet. How much the fatality rate goes down (it does seem more likely to go down than up) depends on which of those effects are stronger and by how much.

Just for reference, 1% of the world's population hypothetically dying is 78 million people. That is in the general range of how many people died in World War 2... Or even if it were half or 1/10 of that, that is still quite a lot of dead.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The vast majority of cases in the west are stable and recovering. Except for a case in France where an 80 year old man is in severe condition. That seems like a precursor for whats to come sadly. The elderly and people with compromised immune systems will be the ones who will face the worst of this.

Edit: Im still hopeful this will sort itself soon. But always a good idea to be prepared.

However, the cases in the west/outside of China are also newer - on average the people outside of China that are infected got it later. So while most in the west are stable now, they may get worse. Also cases outside of China are likely to be demographically biased - towards people that are either capable of traveling to other countries themselves, or else to people who socio-economically associate with travelers (so likely to be better off economically and in better than average health).

And they will have tended to have received good medical care right away, which is probably not the case in China now for a great many and definitely will not be the case across the 3rd world if it gets going in places like Africa. And might also not be the case later even in the 1st world if the medical system gets overwhelmed.

It does seem pretty clear that it will primarily affect the old and people with various pre-existing conditions. For that reason I am not all that worried about myself personally. But I am worried especially for others.

[Skill and Chance]

I'll be honest- I think I was a little too optimistic last week about this thing.  I think I said that the worst-case scenario would be roughly a repeat of swine flu from 2009, but I'm starting to think that "swine flu 2.0" might actually be our best case scenario.  The big thing that changed was that this appears to be legitimately contagious for at least part of the incubation period.  I still don't expect a pandemic as severe as Beet fears, but I could see this spreading worldwide and infecting hundreds of millions of people- perhaps even north of a billion people.  I don't think it's super deadly, so I think the worst case scenario is probably 1% of the world dying, which would still be a tragedy that very few of us have seen in our lifetimes.

That seems about right to me at this point, I agree the plausible range seems to be probably something between 2009 swine flu and 1% of the global population dying, although possibly it could be a bit more - depends on what exactly the fatality rate is and what % of the population gets infected.

As more confirmed cases are coming in, it seems like the fatality ratio is ever so slightly lower - 131/5572 = 2.35%. Hopefully there are lots and lots of un-confirmed cases, which would push the actual ratio lower. On the other hand the reported # confirmed leads the reported # of fatalities because people who die don't all die immediately. Some whose cases were confirmed will die over the next days and weeks, but are not counted as amongst the dead yet. How much the fatality rate goes down (it does seem more likely to go down than up) depends on which of those effects are stronger and by how much.

Just for reference, 1% of the world's population hypothetically dying is 78 million people. That is in the general range of how many people died in World War 2... Or even if it were half or 1/10 of that, that is still quite a lot of dead.

That is a very good reminder that historically (prior to scientific medicine), contagious disease was on a whole different level even from war.  The Black Death killed about half the population of Europe within a few years.

The famous historical plagues all had at least 30% case mortality (smallpox, Black Death, Plague of Justinian, etc.) and likely infected a majority of people in the urbanized world, many of them multiple times with different strains.  Of course, smallpox doesn't exist anymore and the Black Death can now be cured with inexpensive, mass produced pills, which is wild to think about.     

[Skill and Chance]

I'll be honest- I think I was a little too optimistic last week about this thing.  I think I said that the worst-case scenario would be roughly a repeat of swine flu from 2009, but I'm starting to think that "swine flu 2.0" might actually be our best case scenario.  The big thing that changed was that this appears to be legitimately contagious for at least part of the incubation period.  I still don't expect a pandemic as severe as Beet fears, but I could see this spreading worldwide and infecting hundreds of millions of people- perhaps even north of a billion people.  I don't think it's super deadly, so I think the worst case scenario is probably 1% of the world dying, which would still be a tragedy that very few of us have seen in our lifetimes.

Well, asymptomatic transmission opens up the possibility that it could eventually infect a substantial fraction of the world's urbanized population.  I believe the average household in Wuhan has electricity and running water, so simply having access to those isn't as reassuring as it was during Ebola.  We had better hope the very low fatality rate is being accurately reported.  That's the one aspect of this that would seem hardest for the Chinese government to cover up, so I am hopeful.

[It’s so Joever]

I'll be honest- I think I was a little too optimistic last week about this thing.  I think I said that the worst-case scenario would be roughly a repeat of swine flu from 2009, but I'm starting to think that "swine flu 2.0" might actually be our best case scenario.  The big thing that changed was that this appears to be legitimately contagious for at least part of the incubation period.  I still don't expect a pandemic as severe as Beet fears, but I could see this spreading worldwide and infecting hundreds of millions of people- perhaps even north of a billion people.  I don't think it's super deadly, so I think the worst case scenario is probably 1% of the world dying, which would still be a tragedy that very few of us have seen in our lifetimes.

Well, asymptomatic transmission opens up the possibility that it could infect a substantial fraction of the world's urbanized population.  I believe the average household in Wuhan has electricity and running water, so simply having access to those isn't as reassuring as it was during Ebola.  We had better hope the very low fatality rate is being accurately reported.  That's the one aspect of this that would seem hardest for the Chinese government to cover up.  Failing that, the hope would be that it responds to some antiviral medication already widely available in the US.

I don’t know about the veracity of the source, so wait and see if other news agencies actually pick up on this, but there may have been some response to antiviral medication.
https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/doctors-cure-coronavirus-patient-using-hiv-wonder-drugs-1.970084

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1222178989877481473
People who push false information like that should be locked up.

[It’s so Joever]

Also what do you all think will be the death rate in the US (not worldwide) when/if this outbreak ends?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia to isolate members of our community trapped in Wuhan.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/government-to-evacuate-australians-from-hubei/11909090

Off to the Indian Ocean retreat of Christmas Island.

[Beet]

In the past day 47 recovered and 25 died, the CFR for this period dropped to 35%.

Case #s continue to be unreliable due to a shortage of testing equipment.

A decent article here-- https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/26/2019-ncov-china-epidemic-pandemic-the-wuhan-coronavirus-a-tentative-clinical-profile/

[Meclazine for Israel]

In the past day 47 recovered and 25 died, the CFR for this period dropped to 35%.

Case #s continue to be unreliable due to a shortage of testing equipment.

A decent article here-- https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/26/2019-ncov-china-epidemic-pandemic-the-wuhan-coronavirus-a-tentative-clinical-profile/

You are forgetting the 900 other people who never got recorded in the system, never showed up to hospital, and who have fully recovered.

When my family or girlfriend get the flu, I don't. Some people just nail this stuff due to fitness age, or strong immunity.

For healthy adults, this is just like a mild flu, so they won't show many symptons, or at the very least, symptoms which would warrant a medical visit.

Hence, that is why the fatality rate is only 3% at this stage. You are not using the correct population numbers in your biological analysis.

[Sir Mohamed]

This reminds me a lot of the SARS epidemic in 2002/2003 that lasted for a few months but was ultimately contained with a low death rate in developed countries. Almost 18 years later, it seems we're better prepared than back then. For healthy individuals usual hygiene standards should be a good prevention. Otherwise, it seems healthy individuals fully recover within a week.