Would Hoyle have lost his seat if he had not been elected speaker?

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Say Bercow delayed his resignation until after the snap election, would Hoyle have been able to keep his seat?

[CumbrianLefty]

Hard to say.

On national trends he maybe "should" have lost, but previous results make pretty obvious that he has an above average personal vote - and there is some reason to believe Chorley has more in common with seats like Preston and W Lancs (where Labour did better than average last month) rather than the Lancashire marginals further east where they came to grief. Also had Bercow actually stepped down at the GE, Tories might not have tried quite as hard as elsewhere knowing that he was a popular choice at Westminster (and with cross-party support) to be his successor?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, it's a tricky one. He would have survived even a 'normal' sizeable defeat, no doubt, but his could easily have been the sort of constituency to have been the sort of random, shocking loss that landslides tend to churn out. But that moment has already passed, so it's doubly hypothetical.

[mileslunn]

Tough to say.  His margin of victory in 2017 was comparable to nearby Hyndburn and Burnley which both went Tory, however his didn't vote quite as heavily leave as those two and West Lancashire which voted leave in similar numbers stayed Labour, so I think it could have gone either way.  The swing towards Tories overall was strong enough his would have been vulnerable, but there were also more marginal ones nearby like Wirral West, Weaver Vale which Labour managed to hold onto while Lancaster and Fleetwood had similar margins and also stayed Labour.  So I would say it is a 50/50.

[Flyersfan232]

Tough to say.  His margin of victory in 2017 was comparable to nearby Hyndburn and Burnley which both went Tory, however his didn't vote quite as heavily leave as those two and West Lancashire which voted leave in similar numbers stayed Labour, so I think it could have gone either way.  The swing towards Tories overall was strong enough his would have been vulnerable, but there were also more marginal ones nearby like Wirral West, Weaver Vale which Labour managed to hold onto while Lancaster and Fleetwood had similar margins and also stayed Labour.  So I would say it is a 50/50.

It would it depend on two things how well are the Lib Dem’s doing and of the brexit party contest the seat.