2020 Presidential ElectionPresident Donald Trump (R-NY) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 270 EVs 46.6%Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) / Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT) 50.7%2020 SenateDemocratic Party 49 + 2 seats (+4)Republican Party 49 seats (-4)New Senators 2020-21:
Jeff Sessions (R-AL),
Mark Kelly (D-AZ),
John Hickenlooper (D-CO),
Teresa Tomlinson (D-GA),
Doug Collins (R-GA),
Roger Marshall (R-KS),
Sara Gideon (D-ME),
Ben Ray Luján (D-NM),
Cal Cunningham (D-NC),
Bill Hagerty (R-TN),
Rob LaClair (R-VT),
Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)2020 GovernorsNo change (Cooney narrowly defeats Gianforte)
HouseDemocratic Party 243 seats (+9)Republican Party 195 (-9)The 2020 elections were a gut punch for the Democratic Party, as despite major downballot gains, the unexpected hospitalization of their nominee Bernie Sanders led to a 2-vote loss to President Donald Trump. Democrats had major success in the House and the Senate (taking the latter chamber in a major upset), but lost their solid lead in the presidential race after Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders collapsed in a Detroit rally a week before Election Day. Vice Presidential nominee Catherine Cortez Masto was quickly substituted on the ticket, with Governor Steve Bullock receiving the Vice Presidential nomination. However, voter confusion and depressed turnout in key states swung the election to Trump, even as Democrats unseated senators such as Susan Collins and David Perdue that were seen as invulnerable prior to election season.
However, when the electoral college convened, one faithless elector from Utah changed the course of US history by writing in Mitt Romney, hanging the electoral college and necessitating House and Senate votes on the fate of the presidency. In a historical, emotional vote on January 5, the House voted 26-21 by state delegations (the tied delegations of Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan threw away their votes) to re-elect Donald Trump. Meanwhile in the Senate, an equally dramatic vote occured as senators in unfavorable states were forced to weigh the political implications (as well as the fact that the Masto/Bullock ticket won by 4 points in the popular vote). In the end, Governor Steve Bullock was elected 51-49 on party lines, with a visibly distressed Senator Joe Manchin casting the decisive vote and announcing his retirement in 2024. On January 20, 2021, the first divided Executive since the Civil War was sworn in, kicking off perhaps the most divisive era in American politics. On the same day, Senator Bernie Sanders, who had heroically voted in the Vice Presidential vote from his hospital bed, died. Governor Phil Scott appointed Rob LaClair (a Republican) to replace him.
The first problems came from the newly Democratic Senate. Previously, when Trump had a friendly Senate in his pocket, he could confirm his judges and cabinet nominees with ease. But with a hostile Vice President and Senate, the President’s nominees (both judges and secretaries) were frequently gridlocked and rejected, leading both sides to cry foul. Florida Senator Marco Rubio was narrowly confirmed to the post of Attorney General, after fellow senator Tom Cotton was rejected in a 52-47 vote (Murkowski and LaClair joined Democrats in opposing his nomination). Likewise, after Mike Pompeo’s surprise departure from the State Department (to prepare for a run against Gov. Laura Kelly), Senator Lindsey Graham was just barely confirmed (Senators Sinema and Manchin voted for him) to the prestigious Secretary of State post. Major squabbling also occurred over the budget, where Trump tried to convince a hostile Congress to give money to his pet projects, such as the Wall. After multiple near-shutdowns, both sides were forced to relent and compromise. But the biggest crisis came after Justice Clarence Thomas retired in early 2022. Trump immediately nominated Judge Amul Thapar, a rare conservative minority, to the post, but Bullock and the Democratic Senate pushed back, demanding a nominee more favorable to liberal interests and still seething over the Garland/Gorsuch and Kavanaugh debacles. Then, disaster struck as Ruth Bader Ginsburg failed to make it to the end of the Trump presidency, passing away at 89, and leaving ANOTHER open seat in her wake. Trump nominated Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the job, and the Senate responded by not holding hearings for either nominee. Trump retaliated by refusing to even look at a healthcare bill and a gun control bill passed by the liberal Congress, vetoing them out of hand.
It was in this tense, polarized environment that the 2022 election season began. Senator Lisa Murkowski was primaried for the second time, this time by former governor Sarah Palin. Undeterred, the maverick Senator launched another write-in bid, as Fmr. Senator Mark Begich jumped into the race, hoping to capitalize on the GOP schism. Meanwhile in New York, Andrew Yang defeated Andrew Cuomo and Joe Crowley in a bitter primary battle, riding rabid progressive sentiment and a split establishment vote in the state to an upset victory. Across the nation, chaos ensued as redistricting-displaced incumbents hunted for new districts to run in, or like Tennessee Rep. Jim Cooper (whose district was sliced into four), retired. Government was unpopular in nearly every state, but the six-year-itch and Trump’s continued scandals and theatrics meant that most of this anger was directed towards the erstwhile Party of Lincoln.
The 2022 midterms were a redux of 2018 with a Senate map more favorable to Democrats. Democrats won the House popular vote by ten points, but were pretty much maxed out in seats to begin with, so they gained (only?) 13 seats to take a commanding 256-seat majority.
2022 Senate*MS depicts SC-Special
**Johnson was elected in a 2022 special, defeating incumbent Rob LaClair (a Republican). The gain is not shown on the map.
Democratic Party 58 + 1 seats (+9)Republican Party 41 seats (-9)New Senators:
Mike Rogers (R-AL),
Sarah Palin (R-AK),
Stephanie Murphy (D-FL),
Sally Yates (D-GA),
Rob Sand (D-IA),
Matt Blunt (R-MO),
Jeff Jackson (D-NC),
Andrew Ginther (D-OH),
Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR),
Tom Wolf (D-PA),
Joe Cunningham (D-SC),
Mitzi Johnson (D-VT)**,
David Zuckerman (D-VT) (replacing Patrick Leahy),
Ron Kind (D-WI)The results in the Senate told a much different story. Democrats picked up 9 seats here, including major upsets in Iowa, Ohio, and South Carolina, matching the Republican total from 2014. Schumer now had a near-filibuster-proof majority to work with, and a huge cushion for the 2024 elections, where the map was far less favorable.
2022 Governors*Charlie Baker retired
Democratic Party 28 seats (+4)
Republican Party 22 seats (-4)
New Governors:
Ethan Berkowitz (D-AK),
Ruben Gallego (D-AZ),
Tim Griffin (R-AR),
Stacey Abrams (D-GA),
Ed Case (D-HI),
Mike Pompeo (R-KS),
Tom Perez (D-MD),
Joe Kennedy III (D-MA)*,
Mike Foley (R-NE),
Tina Kotek (D-OR),
Josh Shapiro (D-PA),
Jim Langevin (D-RI) (
Spencer Cox (R-UT) and
Mike Cooney (D-MT) won elections in 2020)
Democrats made modest gains in the governor’s elections, unseating two unpopular governors in Alaska and Georgia, picking up 3 open seats, and defending vulnerable seats held by unpopular governors in blue states (Oregon, Rhode Island, Connecticut). Republicans, however, won a major victory by unseating popular Governor Laura Kelly in Kansas, aided by a strong candidate in Mike Pompeo, and were virtually destined to lose in Maryland and Massachusetts anyway. They also defended key seats in Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio, even as Democrats won Senate seats and statehouses in these states.
After the elections, fireworks erupted in an unlikely state - Alaska. In the initial returns, Senator Lisa Murkowski’s write-in campaign pulled ahead by about 6,000 votes, but, in a controversial decision outgoing Governor Dunleavy ordered that 8,000 of those votes get struck for various reasons (mostly misspellings and claims of voter fraud). While many of these ballots were indeed invalid, the ballot strikes swung the election to Dunleavy’s favored candidate, Sarah Palin. Murkowski’s campaign sued and was joined by Begich’s campaign. A hand recount was ordered by the Alaska Supreme Court, resulting in a Palin lead of around 1,250. Murkowski’s campaign appealed again, winning a 9th Circuit case ordering another recount, but a dysfunctional 7-justice Supreme Court could make no ruling on the issue. A second (and third) recount led to Palin’s lead shrinking by 750, and both sides were battling over pretty much every write-in ballot. During this time, new Governor Ethan Berkowitz was sworn in, and he announced an investigation into the ballot issue. The results shook the nation. Berkowitz’s administration accused the Dunleavy administration of packing Anchorage ballot boxes with votes for Palin, citing data showing elevated Republican turnout in suburban Anchorage precincts. Dunleavy retaliated by claiming that Alaska Bureau of Investigation officials, under the orders of Berkowitz, fabricated evidence and packed ballots for Murkowski and Begich in heavily Democratic rural precincts in Northern Alaska. National political figures began vocally taking sides in the case, including President Trump, and the media flooded into Alaska, impeding investigations by both sides. Under the orders of Majority Leader Schumer, Sarah Palin was not seated in the Senate, drawing outrage from the Republican minority, who accused Schumer of denying representation to a conservative state. Governor Berkowitz attempted to convince Alaskans of the legitimacy of his evidence, but a recall effort spawned nonetheless. Under pressure, Berkowitz threw out the 2022 results and ordered a new election in May (the earliest date possible), with Murkowski still off the ballot (Republicans demanded this concession). After Begich dropped out and endorsed Murkowski, the incumbent Senator (now an Independent) won the re-do election 55%-44% and was seated, despite the outcry from TrumpWorld and the conservative media. The election was notable for having near-80% turnout among eligible voters, the highest turnout for an off-year election ever. Later that year, Berkowitz would be recalled, but narrowly leads Sarah Palin in a November election that will surely have sky-high turnout. Other then shining a light on a sparsely populated state not used to media attention, the Fracas in Alaska served to further polarize the nation, and set the stage for a brutal 2024 election season.
Democrats were still riding high in the polls, but then Majority Leader Schumer and Speaker Adam Schiff committed an unforced error. In mid-2023, Schiff announced that Congress would impeach Trump once more, this time with a ‘fair and untainted’ trial in the Senate with witnesses, unlike the previous trial in early 2020. Schiff cited new evidence (centering on John Bolton’s 2022 autobiography), but the public wasn’t convinced. After ramming the new articles through the House (where 29 Democrats joined Republicans in opposing the articles), a second trial began in the Senate, where Democrats called witnesses like John Bolton, Mick Mulvaney, and the President himself to the stand. The trial was seen by many as a travesty, as the involved parties refused to share and/or forgot critical information that could have legitimized the trial. The problems were compounded by a furious John Roberts’s refusal to head the trial. The Chief Justice demanded that ‘you fill my damn Court’ before he would step foot in the Senate. Undeterred, Senate Democrats appointed Vice President Bullock to head the trial in a constitutionally questionable move, which also backfired as an irate Bullock closed the trial after he realized it was going nowhere. This blunder tarnished independents’s views of the Democratic party, divided the Democrats themselves, and threw the 2024 election, once seen as a Democratic lock, back into contention.
The month is July 2023, and the presidential race is beginning to rev up. There are multiple contenders on both sides, each with a different vision for the nation’s future. In addition, with both parties corrupted by numerous scandals and blunders, any credible third-party challenge could very well be viable. Meanwhile, off-year gubernatorial elections approach in four conservative states, where the impact of ImpeachmentGate on voters will be seen firsthand.
Polls for the month of JulyTrump ApprovalDisapprove 53%Approve 43%Undecided 4%
Congress ApprovalDisapprove 75%Approve 19%Undecided 6%
Presidential Generic BallotGeneric Republican 45%Generic Democrat 44%Undecided 11%
Generic Republican 39%Generic Democrat 38%Theoretical Moderate Third-Party Option 13%Undecided 10%
Congressional Generic BallotGeneric Republican 46%Generic Democrat 43%Polls for upcoming Gubernatorial racesAlaskaGovernor Ethan Berkowitz (i) 47%Fmr. Governor Sarah Palin 46% Undecided 7%
TOSSUPKentuckyState Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R-KY) 48%Governor Andy Beshear 44%Undecided 8%
LEAN R PICKUPLouisianaFmr. Mayor Mitch Landrieu 32%Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser 20%State Attorney General Jeff Landry 19%Businessman Eddie Rispone 14% Undecided/Others 15%
LIKELY R PICKUPMississippiGovernor Tate Reeves (i) 55% Fmr. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy 38%Undecided 7%
SAFE RThis is an interest thread. This game is heavily based on my previous one, but is updated, more fleshed out and less of a Democratic wank. If not enough people are willing to do this game, I'll probably do a timeline based on this idea. Please post below if you're interested.
Possible Republican CandidatesFormer Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - reserved by RGM2609
Secretary of State Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Attorney General Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Governor Mike Pompeo (R-KS)
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY/FL)
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO)
Fmr. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD)
Governor Phil Scott (R-VT)
Governor Greg Abbott (R-TX)
Governor Spencer Cox (R-UT)
Fmr. Governor John Kasich (R-OH)
Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Fmr. Senator Doug Collins (R-GA)
Congressman Steve King (R-IA)
Political Commentator Ben Shapiro (R-CA)
Fmr. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH)
Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL)among othersPossible Democratic Candidates
Vice President Steve Bullock (D-MT)
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Governor Andrew Yang (D-NY)
Representative Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)
House Speaker Adam Schiff (D-CA)
Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA)
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) - reserved by iBizzBee
Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC)
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) - reserved by Ishan
Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Governor Janet Mills (D-ME)
Senator Krysten Sinema (D-AZ)
Governor Tom Perez (D-MD)
Governor Jared Polis (D-CO)among othersPossible Third Party Candidates
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I-AK)
Businessman Howard Schultz (I-WA)
Fmr. Representative Justin Amash (I-MI)
Fmr. Representative Tulsi Gabbard (I-HI)
lol Lincoln Chafee (L-WY)among others
