What is the risk of this scenario or similar happening in a Warren nomination

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

2020 Election Results:

Pres:

Elizabeth Warren defeats Donald Trump

Sen (flips listed only):

ME: Sara Gideon defeats Susan Collins (D+1)
NC: Cal Cunningham defeats Thom Tillis (D+1)
AL: Tommy Tuberville defeats Doug Jones (R+1)
AZ: Mark Kelly defeats Martha McSally (D+1)
CO: John Hickenlooper defeats Cory Gardner (D+1)

so Dems should be set to have a 50-50 Senate majority with VP tiebreaker.

but...

MA Dems screw up, as they have before multiple times.

Charlie Baker appoints an R placeholder to Elizabeth Warrens Senate seat keeping Rs in control of the chamber after MA Legislative Dems do nothing to prevent it from occurring, then runs for the seat himself in the special.

Special results:

Charlie Baker defeats Seth Moulton

Therefore, Republicans hold the Senate by a 51-49 majority.

I am genuinely worried that such a scenario could easily happen.
The chances are high, and the risk real in my opinion.
This sort of possibility is what makes me feel very uneasy about voting for Warren in the Dem primary to begin with in all honesty.
I have no faith in MA Dems to not mess this up whatsoever.

[here2view]

There is absolutely no chance in hell that Massachusetts Democrats would let a Republican win a Senate election here when the control of the Senate is at stake.

Save me your "but Scott Brown!" I voted for Baker in 2018 and there's no chance I'd vote for him over the Democrat when the Senate is at stake. Federal elections are completely different than state elections.

[Arbitrage1980]

Governor and Senate races are completely different. In the former, the voters want someone who will do a good job of managing the state and keeping the "trains running on time," to use a proverbial phrase. In the latter, the voters care about the candidates' position on national issues as they will vote with the national party in the Senate and make important votes such as judicial confirmations and federal domestic policy. The gov-sen ticket split is quite frequent. Recent examples include: 2006 Schwarzenegger, 2014 Hogan and Baker, 2018 Hogan and Baker, 2018 Kelly, 2018 Manchin.