WI-Marquette Law: Biden +4, Sanders +1, Buttigieg -2, Warren -3

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

[SN2903]

If I had to guess, this is a state where the whole Iran situation is really hurting Trump. He has no one to blame but himself for trailing in what is obviously a must-win state for him.

There is zero evidence from this poll that Iran has hurt him

His approvals are up since the strike against QS according to this poll

Exactly. If anything he got a small bump from the Iran thing. His approval is stabilizing around 44-45%. I could see it going up to 46-47% possibly this year with a little more consolidation from independents.

[SN2903]

If I had to guess, this is a state where the whole Iran situation is really hurting Trump. He has no one to blame but himself for trailing in what is obviously a must-win state for him.

There is zero evidence from this poll that Iran has hurt him

His approvals are up since the strike against QS according to this poll

Exactly. If anything he got a small bump from the Iran thing. His approval is stabilizing around 44-45%. I could see it going up to 46-47% possibly this year with a little more consolidation from independents.

I could even see it going up to a little past 50%! Don't be too pessimistic SN2903.

O I def think he could hit  50% this year in the average I just want to see a 46 47% average first

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

This is primarily due to improper weighting by the pollsters in 2016.  Do you think pollsters never learn or adjust their models?  For some pollsters this might be true, but not for the good ones (of which Marquette is certainly one).  Just because this happened in 2016 does not mean it's guaranteed to happen in 2020; you're making the same mistake that Democrats did by assuming that what was true in 2012 would also be true in 2016.

No I'm not because Obama was a far better candidate than Hillary and the democratic candidates in 2020 are even weaker than Hillary to be honest. Also in 2016 democrats didn't have an incumbent running. Biden sounded terrible last night and anyone besides Biden apologists could see that. Even Morning Joe this morning said the debate was boring and democrats need to step up their game.

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Polls could be underestimating Trump's support by even more than 2016 right now.

[SN2903]

This is some much needed good news to help me have some cautious optimism for Biden as the nominee.

Once Americans start paying attention more Biden will do bad if he is the nominee. He is a really awful candidate.

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Polls could be underestimating Trump's support by even more than 2016 right now.

Sure they could be or they could even be overestimating his support now. Their simply is no conclusive proof that demonstrates how accurate the polls are right now.

That's fair I just honestly think with how weak Biden and Bernie are sounding that Trump could easily win by more than 2016. I def think it could happen.