WI-Marquette Law: Biden +4, Sanders +1, Buttigieg -2, Warren -3

[SN2903]

If I had to guess, this is a state where the whole Iran situation is really hurting Trump. He has no one to blame but himself for trailing in what is obviously a must-win state for him.

There is zero evidence from this poll that Iran has hurt him

His approvals are up since the strike against QS according to this poll

Exactly. If anything he got a small bump from the Iran thing. His approval is stabilizing around 44-45%. I could see it going up to 46-47% possibly this year with a little more consolidation from independents.

[mgop]

what a spin. real numbers are biden -4, bernie and warren at least +3.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

If I had to guess, this is a state where the whole Iran situation is really hurting Trump. He has no one to blame but himself for trailing in what is obviously a must-win state for him.

There is zero evidence from this poll that Iran has hurt him

His approvals are up since the strike against QS according to this poll

Exactly. If anything he got a small bump from the Iran thing. His approval is stabilizing around 44-45%. I could see it going up to 46-47% possibly this year with a little more consolidation from independents.

I could even see it going up to a little past 50%! Don't be too pessimistic SN2903.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

This is primarily due to improper weighting by the pollsters in 2016.  Do you think pollsters never learn or adjust their models?  For some pollsters this might be true, but not for the good ones (of which Marquette is certainly one).  Just because this happened in 2016 does not mean it's guaranteed to happen in 2020; you're making the same mistake that Democrats did by assuming that what was true in 2012 would also be true in 2016.

[Podgy the Bear]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Why would the polls notoriously undercount his support now?  This is not 2016.

[Frenchrepublican]

This poll is weird. Biden/Trump duel numbers are really bad for Trump but approval rate numbers are great for Trump.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

This is primarily due to improper weighting by the pollsters in 2016.  Do you think pollsters never learn or adjust their models?  For some pollsters this might be true, but not for the good ones (of which Marquette is certainly one).  Just because this happened in 2016 does not mean it's guaranteed to happen in 2020; you're making the same mistake that Democrats did by assuming that what was true in 2012 would also be true in 2016.

Nitpick all you want but you can't deny that things look much better for Trump in January 2020 than they did in January 2016.

And let's see how polling is by late October before we declare Wisconsin to be Lean D for Joe or Bernie, even if these Marquette numbers are accurate they will undoubtedly change over the course of the campaign. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a rerun of the 1968 disaster at Milwaukee this year!

[I Can Now Die Happy]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Why would the polls notoriously undercount his support now?  This is not 2016.

There are still many Trump supporters who are shy because of the unjustified vitriol against them, or who simply don't respond to phone polls.

[Politics Fan]

Why does warren consistently underperform sanders in Ge polls even though their platform is same?

Despite being similar ideologically similar I would say Warren is perceived as being more of a elitist type candidate than Sanders is. Perceptions matter much more than actual policy unfortunately.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Why does warren consistently underperform sanders in Ge polls even though their platform is same?

Despite being similar ideologically similar I would say Warren is perceived as being more of a elitist type candidate than Sanders is. Perceptions matter much more than actual policy unfortunately.

Welcome to Atlas! Do your best to live up to my example.

[Politics Fan]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Nice first posts.  Welcome to the forum!

[Politics Fan]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Nice first posts.  Welcome to the forum!

Thanks!

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors.

I am confident that the first two factors you mentioned will be better for us, and the third factor quite possibly could still be better for us. Marquette was right on in 2018 but Trump is a much stronger candidate than Leah Vukmir and Scott Walker.

[SN2903]

If I had to guess, this is a state where the whole Iran situation is really hurting Trump. He has no one to blame but himself for trailing in what is obviously a must-win state for him.

There is zero evidence from this poll that Iran has hurt him

His approvals are up since the strike against QS according to this poll

Exactly. If anything he got a small bump from the Iran thing. His approval is stabilizing around 44-45%. I could see it going up to 46-47% possibly this year with a little more consolidation from independents.

I could even see it going up to a little past 50%! Don't be too pessimistic SN2903.

O I def think he could hit  50% this year in the average I just want to see a 46 47% average first

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

This is primarily due to improper weighting by the pollsters in 2016.  Do you think pollsters never learn or adjust their models?  For some pollsters this might be true, but not for the good ones (of which Marquette is certainly one).  Just because this happened in 2016 does not mean it's guaranteed to happen in 2020; you're making the same mistake that Democrats did by assuming that what was true in 2012 would also be true in 2016.

No I'm not because Obama was a far better candidate than Hillary and the democratic candidates in 2020 are even weaker than Hillary to be honest. Also in 2016 democrats didn't have an incumbent running. Biden sounded terrible last night and anyone besides Biden apologists could see that. Even Morning Joe this morning said the debate was boring and democrats need to step up their game.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is some much needed good news to help me have some cautious optimism for Biden as the nominee.

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Polls could be underestimating Trump's support by even more than 2016 right now.

[SN2903]

This is some much needed good news to help me have some cautious optimism for Biden as the nominee.

Once Americans start paying attention more Biden will do bad if he is the nominee. He is a really awful candidate.

[Politics Fan]

Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors.

I am confident that the first two factors you mentioned will be better for us, and the third factor quite possibly could still be better for us. Marquette was right on in 2018 but Trump is a much stronger candidate than Leah Vukmir and Scott Walker.

1. In 2016 you had a decent sized drop off with African American turnout which helped Trump win. Further many voters who did not like wither Hillary or Trump voted third party which allowed Trump to get in with a small plurality of the vote. In his loss Scott Walker got a higher % of the vote than Trump did in 2016. Unlike in 2016 where Democrats did not focus as much time as the needed to on the Midwest you are going to see a strong full fledged GOTV effort in WI this year which should help with Turnout. On top of this your going to see a strong anyone but Trump movement going on which will help drive 2016 third party voters to vote for the Dem candidate.

2.I will concede that many of Trumps supporters from last time will be enthusiastic to go out and vote for him this time but unless he is going to expand his base than it's going to be extremely difficult for him to win re-election this time.

3. Scott Walker has won a higher % of the vote than Trump got in 2016 in every statewide  general election he has been in so I fail to see how Trump is a better candidate than Walker is.

[Politics Fan]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Polls could be underestimating Trump's support by even more than 2016 right now.

Sure they could be or they could even be overestimating his support now. Their simply is no conclusive proof that demonstrates how accurate the polls are right now.

[SN2903]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Polls could be underestimating Trump's support by even more than 2016 right now.

Sure they could be or they could even be overestimating his support now. Their simply is no conclusive proof that demonstrates how accurate the polls are right now.

That's fair I just honestly think with how weak Biden and Bernie are sounding that Trump could easily win by more than 2016. I def think it could happen.

[Sir Mohamed]

What I expected all along. WI is a pure tossup, unlike MI (lean D) and PA (tilt D). If Biden or any Dem nominee is ahead by 4 in polls on Halloween, I'll be nervous but not in panic. I know WI polling was off in 2016 unlike the other Rust Belt states, but pollsters hopefully learned their lesson from that election. Marquette was accurate in 2018 and 2016 narratives aren't necessarily valid this time around.

Most important for Dems is building an insurance in the Sun Belt that losing WI doesn't lead to losing the election. AZ and FL should be obvious targets, followed by NC and GA. Maybe even TX, though if Trump struggles in TX 8 or 9 months from now, he's likely done.

[Scottholes 2.0]

A tossup remains a tossup. Thankfully, my vote will count!

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is some much needed good news to help me have some cautious optimism for Biden as the nominee.

Once Americans start paying attention more Biden will do bad if he is the nominee. He is a really awful candidate.

I won't deny that it's definitely possible, and what I am most worried about with any Democrat. But Biden has more room to fall than the other candidates do and has been almost Trump-like in his ability to not be affected much by his gaffes or the skepticism directed at him. I also expect that the methodology of most polling firms will be more accurate this time compared to 2016. Marquette was very accurate in 2018, and they always have been one of the Badger State's better pollsters.

Nonetheless, Wisconsin is still a tossup, and is where the election will be won or lost.