MI (Epic-Mra) : Trump trails every democrats but Bloomberg does the best

[Frenchrepublican]

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/01/15/mike-bloomberg-other-democrats-lead-donald-trump-michigan-poll/4469175002/

Matchups :
Bloomberg leads 49/42
Biden leads 50/44
Sanders leads 50/45
Warren leads 48/45

Small sample but still very notable :’’Bloomberg leads Trump 51%-41% in Macomb, according to the poll, and Sanders 49%-45%. Because of the smaller sample size from one count, however, the margin of error would be far greater than 4 points, and should be taken into account.’’

[Frenchrepublican]

Also interesting to note how Biden margins are shrinking. Last April he was leading Trump by 13, in June by 11, in August by 10 and now by only 6.

[Annatar]

Biden's numbers haven't changed much in this poll, although there has been a slight decline, Trump's numbers have risen more. In their April poll Biden was at 52%, in their June poll he was at 52%, in their August poll he went down to 51%, now he is at 50%, so not dramatic change. Trump's numbers have changed more, he was at 39% in April, 41% in June and August, now he's at 44%.

What's interesting is the fav/unfav numbers, Biden is at 44/41 or +3, Trump is at 41/54, or -13, so Biden has a net 16% advantage over Trump in favourability and that I think is why he leads Trump by 6% in this poll, if Trump can continue to cut down on Biden's net fav advantage, Trump will be able to cut into that 6% margin.

[Sir Mohamed]

Strong Lean D as of today. If the election was held today, Biden and Sanders would most likely win by 5-7%. But I wouldn't write Trump off 10 months out even if his chances in WI are better.

Maybe time to reassess Bloomberg's electability? Seems like his ads are somewhat paying off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has not had leads in a major poll in I dont know how long, the only reason why Trunp won in 2016 was due to Hilary Clinton.  Dems are much more United as the outparty than when we saw our numbers drop, in 2016, as the in party

[Matty]

Michigan polling sucks


I think trump loses it by 2 points or so, but it will be close

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michigan polling sucks


I think trump loses it by 2 points or so, but it will be close

I doubt it be close, Peter's is leading by 5 points over James , Bernie can defeat Trump

[DrScholl]

If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

[pbrower2a]

It is telling that Trump won Macomb County  (a suburban area to the north of Detroit) by 11%... and he is down by anywhere from 4% to Sanders to 10% to Bloomberg. Such is more than enough to swing Michigan as a whole away from Trump.

If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

Indiana had the perfect storm for Defeating Republicans there in 2008. Figure that one part of Indiana, the part that depends upon the production of RV's, felt the triple-whammy of an economic meltdown, tight credit, and exorbitant gas prices. After those went away, Indiana could return to its norm of being about 12% more R than the US as a whole.

I'm not saying that Michigan will go against Trump by double digits unless he completely melts down. High single-digits for the D? Highly likely based on this poll.     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican and SN dont realize that Trump is being impeached, the samething that Trump criticized Hilary for being ethically challenged. Bernie or Biden will win MI and the election

[The Mikado]

Bernie Porn coming through once again.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Michigan and Pennsylvania both Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio, IA, FL and WI will vote D

[President Johnson]

But, but... I thought Wall Street Mike was unelectable.

[Podgy the Bear]

Michigan and Pennsylvania both Lean D.

We just need Wisconsin--this will be ground zero

[SN2903]

Absolute trash poll. Bloomberg up 7? No. Small sample size. If Teump is at 47% approval in the state it's a toss up.

[SN2903]

French Republican and SN dont realize that Trump is being impeached, the samething that Trump criticized Hilary for being ethically challenged. Bernie or Biden will win MI and the election

No. Impeachment is seen as politics. 99% of the country does not care about impeachment. Hillary's investigation was seen as much more serious.

[SN2903]

Michigan and Pennsylvania both Lean D.

We just need Wisconsin--this will be ground zero

Trump ain't losing WI or PA. MI is 50 50 but I honestly think Democrats get weaker not stronger once they have a nominee

[Frenchrepublican]

It is telling that Trump won Macomb County  (a suburban area to the north of Detroit) by 11%... and he is down by anywhere from 4% to Sanders to 10% to Bloomberg. Such is more than enough to swing Michigan as a whole away from Trump.

If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

Indiana had the perfect storm for Defeating Republicans there in 2008. Figure that one part of Indiana, the part that depends upon the production of RV's, felt the triple-whammy of an economic meltdown, tight credit, and exorbitant gas prices. After those went away, Indiana could return to its norm of being about 12% more R than the US as a whole.

I'm not saying that Michigan will go against Trump by double digits unless he completely melts down. High single-digits for the D? Highly likely based on this poll.     

Concerning Macomb keep in mind that the subsample is very small, if Trump is really losing this county by 10 he is likely to lose MI by a much larger margin than 5 points

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Michigan and Pennsylvania both Lean D.

We just need Wisconsin--this will be ground zero

Trump ain't losing WI or PA. MI is 50 50 but I honestly think Democrats get weaker not stronger once they have a nominee

Especially this year when intraparty conflict looks to be even more intense! And when the GOP is even more united!

[Frenchrepublican]

Michigan polling sucks


I think trump loses it by 2 points or so, but it will be close

If the election was held now I could see Biden winning MI 51/47, not much more

[Frenchrepublican]

If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

That comparison doesn't make a lot of sense, Indiana 2008 was a clear aberration as the state leaned a lot the right before 2008 and swung back hard to the right in 2012. MI on the other hand was and is still a relatively competitive state, in 2004 Bush came very close to win it and in 2012 MI was only D+5, the idea that MI will trend a lot to the left is not backed by any solid datas.

[SN2903]

Michigan polling sucks


I think trump loses it by 2 points or so, but it will be close

If the election was held now I could see Biden winning MI 51/47, not much more

If the election were held now I think Michigan would be extremely close if Biden is the nominee by election day I think Trump carries MI by 2-3 pts. I think James beats Peters by 3-4 pts running slightly better than Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michigan polling sucks


I think trump loses it by 2 points or so, but it will be close

If the election was held now I could see Biden winning MI 51/47, not much more

If the election were held now I think Michigan would be extremely close if Biden is the nominee by election day I think Trump carries MI by 2-3 pts. I think James beats Peters by 3-4 pts running slightly better than Trump.

Not likely, Trump is losing FL by 6 points to Bernie Sanders

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

Iowa could be as well.