Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also, if SF is pulling 25% of the vote, transfers matter less as they're closer to achieving a quota on first preferences anyway.

Arguably FG's numbers by that measure are much worse.

[CumbrianLefty]

That poll also has Irish Labour in Connaught/Ulster at........*one* per cent.

[palandio]

Also, if SF is pulling 25% of the vote, transfers matter less as they're closer to achieving a quota on first preferences anyway.

True. Running a relatively low number of candidates combined with a high first preference share makes them a lot less dependent on transfers. Additionally I don't really see that many constituencies where SF could have profitted from running more candidates unless they got unusually high transfers.

Arguably FG's numbers by that measure are much worse.

That seems plausible. If things go really bad for them, they could be headed for a result similar to FF in 2011. The ingredients for the desaster would be:
- A relatively low vote share that makes you dependent on transfers in many constituencies
- Low transfers from other parties
- Many candidates that spread out the vote between them but don't survive until the decisive final counts

[brucejoel99]

A new poll puts SF on 25%, FF 23% and FG 20%

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-leads-way-in-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-with-highest-support-ever-1.4160461

A surge in support for SF is being driven among the under-50s and working class voters.

Irish reunification happens in 2024 according to Star Trek: TNG, so this does seem like a necessary step

[DL]

Why don't FF and FG simply merge. In this day and age what is the point of having two parties that are ideologically utterly indistinguishable from each other?

[jaymichaud]

Why don't FF and FG simply merge. In this day and age what is the point of having two parties that are ideologically utterly indistinguishable from each other?

I was under the impression that Fine Gael were socially liberal and fiscally conservative, whereas Fianna Fail were socially conservative and mixed on the economy?

Or am I totally wrong?

[bigic]

Why don't FF and FG simply merge. In this day and age what is the point of having two parties that are ideologically utterly indistinguishable from each other?

If FF and FG wanted to merge, they would merge. And in many countries there are rival parties whose ideologies are even more similar between them.

[DL]

Why don't FF and FG simply merge. In this day and age what is the point of having two parties that are ideologically utterly indistinguishable from each other?

I was under the impression that Fine Gael were socially liberal and fiscally conservative, whereas Fianna Fail were socially conservative and mixed on the economy?

Or am I totally wrong?

That was my impression back in the 80s and 90s but nowadays I don't think that's true anymore and they really are the tweedledum and tweedledee parties

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They are both very broad brush parties and contain a very wide range of tendencies. Yes, you can look at them and say 'ah they are both conservative parties' and, yes, this is basically correct, but in certain respects every other Irish political party can be given this label, at least in part (and, yes, that absolutely includes the various Trots), and so it really isn't enough on its own, particularly when there's so much history dividing them. A merged FF-FG would almost certainly poll no better than the largest individual element at the pre-merger election.

[Intell]

Why don't FF and FG simply merge. In this day and age what is the point of having two parties that are ideologically utterly indistinguishable from each other?

I was under the impression that Fine Gael were socially liberal and fiscally conservative, whereas Fianna Fail were socially conservative and mixed on the economy?

Or am I totally wrong?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEG8UncZ6VY

- This was a interesting discussion.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why don't FF and FG simply merge. In this day and age what is the point of having two parties that are ideologically utterly indistinguishable from each other?

oh sweet summer child

[Intell]

As both Finna fail voters and Fine Gael voters prefer them going to coalition with the soft left than each other, I'm pretty sure a merger isn't going to happen.

[Cassius]

Would I be right to assume that the Shinners are likely to underperform by a few points in comparison to the polls? If my memory serves me correctly that happened in the last three elections.

[Former President tack50]

Assuming polls hold, how likely would an SF-FF coalition be? (maybe with support from the Trots, Irish Labour or some indies)

I'd be disappointed if Ireland gets another FF-FG coalition with roles swapped tbh; even if I despise Sinn Fein and think they should be banned in any reasonable country (see: Batasuna)

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, one not insignificant difference is that the IRA no longer exist as even an inactive armed organisation. Takes like this aren't really helpful as they ignore the divergences in different places.

[Velasco]

Well, one not insignificant difference is that the IRA no longer exist as even an inactive armed organisation. Takes like this aren't really helpful as they ignore the divergences in different places.

ETA no longer exists. It was dissolved on May 3, 2018 (ceased operations in December 2011)

That being said, there are some differences between Northern Ireland and the Basque Country. I'm not for banning political organizations that I dislike, on the other hand. Otherwise I'd go for Vox or any other far-right bunch.

[jaymichaud]

Assuming polls hold, how likely would an SF-FF coalition be? (maybe with support from the Trots, Irish Labour or some indies)

I'd be disappointed if Ireland gets another FF-FG coalition with roles swapped tbh; even if I despise Sinn Fein and think they should be banned in any reasonable country (see: Batasuna)

I don’t think they should be banned since they’re not violent nowadays but stuff like this doesn’t help their case

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/ira-souvenirs-sell-well-in-mcdonald-hq-26540510.html

[Former President tack50]

Well, one not insignificant difference is that the IRA no longer exist as even an inactive armed organisation. Takes like this aren't really helpful as they ignore the divergences in different places.

Oh they definitely should not be banned now of course. Sinn Fein should have been banned in the 70s or 80s, at the height of the Troubles. Any ban after the GFA is dumb.

If you want Irish reunification, that is fine (and you had SDLP and FF on both sides of the border). But violence is never an option and parties using violence and terrorism should be banned

Similarly I would also ban the paramilitary unionist parties in NI (not sure how many of them there were/are though)

[Velasco]

Well, one not insignificant difference is that the IRA no longer exist as even an inactive armed organisation. Takes like this aren't really helpful as they ignore the divergences in different places.

Oh they definitely should not be banned now of course. Sinn Fein should have been banned in the 70s or 80s, at the height of the Troubles. Any ban after the GFA is dumb.

If you want Irish reunification, that is fine (and you had SDLP and FF on both sides of the border). But violence is never an option and parties using violence and terrorism should be banned

Similarly I would also ban the paramilitary unionist parties in NI (not sure how many of them there were/are though)

If I was an Irish nationalist, I would tell you don't forget the British Army and the Royal Ulster Constabulary. Happily the times of the Troubles are gone and this is off-topic now in 2020. Again, the Irish context is not necessarily rhe same that you are familiar to. If you want to start a topic on Irish reunification or the Troubles, there are other boards.

[mileslunn]

I wonder if Sinn Fein is sort of having a similar surge to what Corbyn had in 2017.  Lots of young voters like strongly left wing parties, but once they come under greater scrutiny like Corbyn did in 2019 they fall apart.  I suspect Sinn Fein does really well but doesn't form government and next time around they come under much greater scrutiny.

[DL]

The way the polls are looking it may be that the only viable government is a FF-FG "grand coalition" - and that could present SF with even more of an opportunity as the only real opposition to a government that would likely get very unpopular very quickly

[Tintrlvr]

Assuming polls hold, how likely would an SF-FF coalition be? (maybe with support from the Trots, Irish Labour or some indies)

I'd be disappointed if Ireland gets another FF-FG coalition with roles swapped tbh; even if I despise Sinn Fein and think they should be banned in any reasonable country (see: Batasuna)

FF is probably the only party (other than the hard left) who would be willing to go into coalition with SF, though it's hard to see FF and the hard left in a coalition together. So you could maybe see SF-FF-some Indies as the next government (or FF-SF-Indies, depending on who comes out on top). They share a pretty assertively nationalist agenda without clashing too much on other issues.

FG would probably prefer not to be the junior partner to FF in a government so I doubt they would go for another coalition (as it now looks certain that they will be behind FF on election day), and working with SF would be the total antithesis of FG. Labour would not go into coalition with SF and would also have trouble working with the hard left. The Greens are a bit of a wild card but I don't think they'd go for a coalition with SF, either, and they nearly went extinct the last time they worked with FF, so they will probably be leery of a coalition with FF generally.

[Democratic Hawk]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/harry-mcgee-s-final-seat-prediction-for-election-2020-1.4139708

Fianna Fáil: 53
Fine Gael: 38
Sinn Féin: 28
Labour Party: 8
Green Party: 14
Social Democrats: 3
Sol-PBP: 2
Others: 14

NOTE: 80 seats required to form a government

FF 53 + LAB 8 + Green 14 + SD 3 = 78

FF 53 + FG 38 = 91

FF 53 + SF 28 = 81

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...since they’re not violent nowadays

I mean that depends entirely on how one defines 'not violent'. The organisation is no longer a participant in a civil war and has destroyed the weapons it used back when it was, but, well, things of a different nature continue and along the way limbs are occasionally smashed.

[Zinneke]

...since they’re not violent nowadays

I mean that depends entirely on how one defines 'not violent'. The organisation is no longer a participant in a civil war and has destroyed the weapons it used back when it was, but, well, things of a different nature continue and along the way limbs are occasionally smashed.

A PSNI report (take it obviously with a pinch of salt) said that the Military command of the PIRA are still selecting leaders in the North (and that was demonstrated at the latest attempt to challenge Michelle O'Neill). Not sure how the SF inner party workings present themselves in the South.