CA-25: Can this type of result happen?

[ElectionsGuy]

Knight: 36%
Uygur: 22%
Smith: 20%
Other D: 12%
Other R: 10%

Every time I think about this race, I get flashbacks to Eric Cantor and Joe Crowley losing their district. Yeah, there's no incumbent, but Christy Smith might as well be one, she's endorsed by the party establishment in California and avoided a debate with the other Democrats. Is it possible Uygur could squeak out a win (or rather, a top-two spot)? I know, most likely not. Christy Smith can just win off of name recognition being one of the district's assemblypersons, but huge upsets have happened before. He has a huge volunteer base and is going all over the place in the district. Regardless of whether or not you like him, I gotta admit it's pretty admirable the way he's running his campaign from what I've seen.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No, GOP dreams about these unrealistic scenarios are also cringe.

[ElectionsGuy]

No, GOP dreams about these unrealistic scenarios are also cringe.

I'm not dreaming but there's just a lot of uncertainty here until we can get a poll (if it ever comes).

[DrScholl]

Considering that Knight failed to secure the Los Angeles County GOP endorsement despite being a former member of Congress it is very unlikely that Knight will make the top two.

[Bidenworth2020]

Knight: 36%
Uygur: 22%
Smith: 20%
Other D: 12%
Other R: 10%

Every time I think about this race, I get flashbacks to Eric Cantor and Joe Crowley losing their district. Yeah, there's no incumbent, but Christy Smith might as well be one, she's endorsed by the party establishment in California and avoided a debate with the other Democrats. Is it possible Uygur could squeak out a win (or rather, a top-two spot)? I know, most likely not. Christy Smith can just win off of name recognition being one of the district's assemblypersons, but huge upsets have happened before. He has a huge volunteer base and is going all over the place in the district. Regardless of whether or not you like him, I gotta admit it's pretty admirable the way he's running his campaign from what I've seen.

What are you talking about? He literally got 2 votes for the party endorsement (usually where progressive insurgents show their grassroots strength, as the group is mostly made up of party activists) and he is from Orange County. Not to mention his denial of the Armenian genocide and defense of his previous degrading comments towards women. He will not receive more than 5% of the vote

[Nyvin]

Knight isn't particularly popular in the district,  I doubt he'll get 36% considering there's five other Republicans running,  including Trump crony Papadopoulos.

[Tintrlvr]

Uygur is going to be lucky to get into double-digits. He's got a certain very-online following but zero supporters outside of that crowd.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why would Christy Smith get less than 45% of the vote?

[Gracile]

Uygur will probably have a similar trajectory to Jess Phoenix in 2018 - lots of hype from internet progressives, but little organic support from people who actually live in the district. I can't see him getting a high enough share of the votes to make the top two.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Uygur even actively campaigning or is he using his campaign just to raise money from gullible lefties?

[UncleSam]

Ya this could happen, but it’s extremely unlikely to. Smith will probably take more like 40% than 20% in the first round and will be a favorite vs Knight, although not as heavy a favorite as Atlas likes to meme. She probably wins 54-46 in the runoff or so.

[Skunk]

It's going to be a Smith vs Garcia runoff, and Smith will win by high single digits in the end.

[Greedo punched first]

It's going to be a Smith vs Garcia runoff, and Smith will win by high single digits in the end.

It's going to be a Smith vs Papadopoulos runoff. Garcia and Knight will split the GOPe vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

Knight: 36%
Uygur: 22%
Smith: 20%
Other D: 12%
Other R: 10%

Every time I think about this race, I get flashbacks to Eric Cantor and Joe Crowley losing their district. Yeah, there's no incumbent, but Christy Smith might as well be one, she's endorsed by the party establishment in California and avoided a debate with the other Democrats. Is it possible Uygur could squeak out a win (or rather, a top-two spot)? I know, most likely not. Christy Smith can just win off of name recognition being one of the district's assemblypersons, but huge upsets have happened before. He has a huge volunteer base and is going all over the place in the district. Regardless of whether or not you like him, I gotta admit it's pretty admirable the way he's running his campaign from what I've seen.

What are you talking about? He literally got 2 votes for the party endorsement (usually where progressive insurgents show their grassroots strength, as the group is mostly made up of party activists) and he is from Orange County. Not to mention his denial of the Armenian genocide and defense of his previous degrading comments towards women. He will not receive more than 5% of the vote

I'm talking about not taking any big money and running completely independent of the Democratic machine in California, pretty simple. I'm not surprised 'party activists' don't support him. Most of his support is going to come from independent lefties who aren't party loyalists. And don't even get me started on that last bit, isn't all that sh**t he said like 15+ years ago that he's completely renounced? I don't like him at all, but this political correctness cancer on the Democratic party is making it so anyone who ever said anything bad ever or changed their mind cannot possibly run for office. It's disgusting, it's the same crap that they bashed Bernie with when he endorsed him and it's awful that he caved to those twitter monsters.

Why would Christy Smith get less than 45% of the vote?

Because there's a lot of people running and it's essentially a jungle primary?

Knight isn't particularly popular in the district,  I doubt he'll get 36% considering there's five other Republicans running,  including Trump crony Papadopoulos.

Good point, I don't know how well certain Republicans will do either, I just assumed Knight will do somewhat well because he was the previous incumbent.

[wbrocks67]

It's absolutely infuriating that Cenk is even in this race. Smith could win it outright if not for him.

[Greedo punched first]

It's absolutely infuriating that Cenk is even in this race. Smith could win it outright if not for him.

This will prevent Smith from getting >50% in the primary and avoiding a runoff. Knight, Garcia, and the nobody Republicans will split the vote, causing a Smith-Papadopoulos runoff.

[Bidenworth2020]

Knight: 36%
Uygur: 22%
Smith: 20%
Other D: 12%
Other R: 10%

Every time I think about this race, I get flashbacks to Eric Cantor and Joe Crowley losing their district. Yeah, there's no incumbent, but Christy Smith might as well be one, she's endorsed by the party establishment in California and avoided a debate with the other Democrats. Is it possible Uygur could squeak out a win (or rather, a top-two spot)? I know, most likely not. Christy Smith can just win off of name recognition being one of the district's assemblypersons, but huge upsets have happened before. He has a huge volunteer base and is going all over the place in the district. Regardless of whether or not you like him, I gotta admit it's pretty admirable the way he's running his campaign from what I've seen.

What are you talking about? He literally got 2 votes for the party endorsement (usually where progressive insurgents show their grassroots strength, as the group is mostly made up of party activists) and he is from Orange County. Not to mention his denial of the Armenian genocide and defense of his previous degrading comments towards women. He will not receive more than 5% of the vote

I'm talking about not taking any big money and running completely independent of the Democratic machine in California, pretty simple. I'm not surprised 'party activists' don't support him. Most of his support is going to come from independent lefties who aren't party loyalists. And don't even get me started on that last bit, isn't all that sh**t he said like 15+ years ago that he's completely renounced? I don't like him at all, but this political correctness cancer on the Democratic party is making it so anyone who ever said anything bad ever or changed their mind cannot possibly run for office. It's disgusting, it's the same crap that they bashed Bernie with when he endorsed him and it's awful that he caved to those twitter monsters.

1. It's not really all that impressive that one can self-fund when they have a huge media outlet like the Young Turks doing constant propaganda for them and allowing them to get donations from pretty much everywhere BUT the district he is running in. It is nothing like Bernie's donor base, which he earned entirely off of his own personal popularity and without the help of media.

2. The party convention endorsed De Leon in 2018 and a bunch of progressives in the jungle primaries, so yes a lot of them are Berniecrats (hell, Bernie is probably favored in Cali right now).

3. I generally give Cenk a pass on the blogs from 15 years since they seem to be a joke, but criticizing someone denying the Armenian genocide up until 2010, not to mention spreading this belief to his more impressionable viewers, is not me being some #woke SJW. At the very least it shows a lack of judgment. The degrading of women I was referring to was him rating women who were vying for political office based on their attractiveness. Again, at the very least shows a lack of respect for women.

Probably wasting my time anyway, considering I just wrote a multi-paragraph post on a candidate unlikely to achieve third party status.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why would Christy Smith get less than 45% of the vote?

Cenk probably has a lot more name recognition then some random state legislator does . You guys really overestimate the name recognition of state legislators because the vast majority of people probably have no idea who their state legislator is .

[Gracile]

Why would Christy Smith get less than 45% of the vote?

Cenk probably has a lot more name recognition then some random state legislator does . You guys really overestimate the name recognition of state legislators because the vast majority of people probably have no idea who their state legislator is .

This is just flat out not true. If anything, a state representative who represents 60% of the district's population is far more known than the host of a niche political internet series (not to mention a good chunk of the name recognition he does have is negative).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why would Christy Smith get less than 45% of the vote?

Cenk probably has a lot more name recognition then some random state legislator does . You guys really overestimate the name recognition of state legislators because the vast majority of people probably have no idea who their state legislator is .

This is just flat out not true. If anything, a state representative who represents 60% of the district's population is far more known than the host of a niche political internet series (not to mention a good chunk of the name recognition he does have is negative).

Lol , the vast majority of people do not know who their state legislator is even if they represent their district lol . Listen I despise Cenk but he has the largest internet news show so that does make him much more known than a state legislator.

The attacks you guys are launching at him are beyond idiotic too , if you want to attack him , attack him for how his only intention to Congress is to tear down things and nothing else , or attack him on his radical political views .

[Gracile]

Why would Christy Smith get less than 45% of the vote?

Cenk probably has a lot more name recognition then some random state legislator does . You guys really overestimate the name recognition of state legislators because the vast majority of people probably have no idea who their state legislator is .

This is just flat out not true. If anything, a state representative who represents 60% of the district's population is far more known than the host of a niche political internet series (not to mention a good chunk of the name recognition he does have is negative).

Lol , the vast majority of people do not know who their state legislator is even if they represent their district lol . Listen I despise Cenk but he has the largest internet news show so that does make him much more known than a state legislator.

The attacks you guys are launching at him are beyond idiotic too , if you want to attack him , attack him for how his only intention to Congress is to tear down things and nothing else , or attack him on his radical political views .

The type of medium to high information voters who participate in primary/special elections would probably know who their state representative is, and again while TYT has a large internet following it is still largely confined to a niche portion of the Democratic electorate. There are probably just as many voters who are not familiar with Uygur's work as there are people unfamiliar with who represents them in the state legislature.

Put another way, some schmuck in the general population who is apolitical to the degree that they don't know who their state representative is probably also isn't aware of The Young Turks.

[Galeel]

People are vastly overestimating Cenk. I bet he gets around 10% at most.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It's absolutely infuriating that Cenk is even in this race. Smith could win it outright if not for him.

You can't avoid runoffs in California though lol, he's annoying but that issue isn't because of him. Also, big X. Even Hill got just 54% in 2018 -- the district is safe D bc of super tuesday, but Smith was never going to collect 94% of Hill's vote -- you'll always have enough sideshow progressives to stop that.

[Greedo punched first]

Mike Garcia received the LA County GOP endorsement.

[Nyvin]

It's absolutely infuriating that Cenk is even in this race. Smith could win it outright if not for him.

You can't avoid runoffs in California though lol, he's annoying but that issue isn't because of him. Also, big X. Even Hill got just 54% in 2018 -- the district is safe D bc of super tuesday, but Smith was never going to collect 94% of Hill's vote -- you'll always have enough sideshow progressives to stop that.

You can avoid runoffs in special elections if the candidate gets more than 50% of the overall vote.